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A growth junkie portfolio with decent brains but a sketchy relationship with downside and discipline

Report created on Jan 5, 2026

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

4/5
Broadly Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This thing is 95% stocks and pretending that 5% in a vanilla bond fund somehow counts as “balance.” Structurally, it’s basically: US large caps, some factor spice (quality and small value), a side quest in Canada, and a token bond sleeve so the risk score doesn’t look totally feral. For a “Growth” profile, it’s coherent but very one-note: almost everything depends on global equities behaving. That 15% CAGR history is flattering, but that’s been a great decade-plus for stocks. If balance matters at all, nudging bonds or other stabilizers up from “rounding error” territory would make this look less like an all-gas portfolio in a world that still has recessions.

Growth Info

Historically, this has ripped. A hypothetical $10,000 growing at 15.04% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate, aka your average “trip speed”) for 10 years lands around $40,500. That easily beats a plain-vanilla global 60/40, and likely edges a simple US index too. But the bill for those bragging rights: a max drawdown of about -34.7%. So at some point, $100k looked like $65k and nerves were tested. Also, 90% of gains came from just 20 days — classic stock-market nonsense. Miss a few big up days and the magic fades. Past data is helpful, but it’s basically yesterday’s weather; don’t expect it to predict the next storm.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo results are screaming “high upside, don’t you dare look at the left tail too closely.” Quick explainer: Monte Carlo just runs thousands of “what if” futures using historical-like volatility and returns, then shows a range of outcomes. Median scenario: about +403% — so $10k becomes roughly $50k. The 67th percentile is even spicier at +579%. But the 5th percentile at only +37.5% means that in unlucky worlds, a lot of risk buys not much more than a modest gain. Also, a 14.1% annualized simulated return is suspiciously rosy; long-term returns rarely stay that generous. Treat these outputs as vibes, not prophecies.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    95%
  • Bonds
    5%

This “broadly diversified” label is doing a lot of PR work. Asset-class wise, you’ve basically said: “Stocks? Yes. Everything else? Eh.” With 95% equity, 5% bond, 0% cash or alternatives, this is an all-weather portfolio only if the weather is always sunny. The 5% in bonds is like putting a single airbag in a race car and calling it “safety-focused.” In real-world crashes, that tiny bond slice won’t meaningfully soften the hit. If the goal is genuine resilience, slowly dialing up fixed income or other stabilizers over time would help so future drawdowns don’t feel like an extreme sports hobby disguised as investing.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    24%
  • Financials
    17%
  • Industrials
    12%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    10%
  • Basic Materials
    7%
  • Energy
    7%
  • Telecommunications
    6%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector-wise, this is very “index but make it slightly edgier.” Tech at 24% is basically your main personality trait, with Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals playing backup. Nothing here is outrageously concentrated, but you’re clearly leaning into the usual growth story: tech, cyclicals, and economically sensitive stuff. When the economy booms, this sings; when it tanks, this screams. Low Utilities and Real Estate (2% and 1%) mean very little ballast if defensive sectors catch a bid. This isn’t a meme-stock clown show, but it is tilted toward sectors that party hard on the way up and don’t exactly whisper on the way down.

Regions Info

  • North America
    68%
  • Europe Developed
    13%
  • Japan
    8%
  • Australasia
    2%
  • Asia Developed
    2%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, this is “North America or bust.” With about 68% in North America and 10% separately parked in Canada, the rest of the world is basically a side quest. Europe Developed, Japan, and a sprinkle of Australasia show up mainly via broad international ETFs, but Emerging Markets are basically on the missing persons list. That’s fine if someone believes the US and friends will keep leading, but it’s a pretty loud home-country bias. If global balance is the goal, slowly tilting a bit more toward non-US developed and emerging markets would make future returns less dependent on one region’s economy and politics not screwing things up.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    32%
  • Large-cap
    24%
  • Mid-cap
    21%
  • Small-cap
    11%
  • Micro-cap
    6%

Market-cap spread is actually one of the more interesting parts here. Around a third in mega caps, a quarter in big, then a meaningful 21% in mid and 17% combined in small and micro. Translation: you’ve mixed the boring giants with some scrappy gremlins. This gives more growth potential but also adds extra volatility — small and micro caps are like emotional teenagers: big potential, dramatic mood swings. Compared with a vanilla large-cap index, this will likely outperform in strong risk-on periods and look sickly in panics. If drawdowns feel too brutal in real life, dialing back the tiny stuff slightly would calm the ride without totally neutering the growth tilt.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

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Risk vs return here is basically “YOLO but with a spreadsheet.” The historical and simulated returns are great, but that -34.7% drawdown is the price of admission. Efficient Frontier just means getting the most return per unit of pain; this is clearly sitting on the “lots of return, lots of pain” end of that curve. Is it efficient? For a true growth profile, mostly yes — but it’s not exactly optimized for emotional survival. If future-you is going to panic-sell during the next big drop, the current risk level is fake-optimized: great on paper, disastrous in practice. Tweaking toward slightly more bonds and global balance would make the trade-off more livable.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.00%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
  • Franklin FTSE Canada ETF 1.80%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 3.40%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF 1.10%
  • Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 4.10%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF 0.30%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.84%

The total yield at 1.84% is a polite “we’re here for growth, not income.” The bond slice helps at 4.1%, and the international equity funds throw off around 3%–3.4%, but US quality growth at a 0.3% yield is very “I don’t do cash payouts, I do vibes.” If someone needs near-term income, this setup is not it; this is an accumulation machine, not a paycheck generator. Over-focusing on dividends can be a trap anyway, but this is almost the opposite problem: you’re fully betting on price appreciation doing the heavy lifting. That’s fine for long horizons, less cute if withdrawals start soon.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Franklin FTSE Canada ETF 0.09%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF 0.03%
  • Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%

Costs are suspiciously reasonable for a portfolio this factor-flavored. A total TER of 0.11% is basically couch-cushion money in the investing world. The Avantis funds are a bit pricier, but at 0.25–0.36% for active-ish factor tilts, that’s not outrageous. The Schwab and Franklin ETFs are dirt cheap, like “you clicked the right funds by accident” cheap. Low fees don’t guarantee good outcomes, but high fees absolutely drag you over time, so at least this setup isn’t taxing itself to death. Just don’t get cocky and start sprinkling in expensive toys later — fee creep is silent but lethal over multi-decade horizons.

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