Factor nerd fever dream wearing a boring index mask but secretly powered by value goblins
Report created on Jun 22, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 30.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00% -
AV American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
AVLV - US0250723493 15.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 7.50% -
AV Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF
AVES - US0250723725 7.50%
This thing is marketed as “balanced” but it’s actually 100% stocks with a double life: half sleepy broad indexes, half Avantis value gremlins running around in small caps and emerging markets. Structurally, it’s like bolting a race car engine into a Camry and calling the whole thing “moderate.” The plain-vanilla Vanguard core pretends everything is normal, while the chunky tilts toward U.S. and international small/value are doing the personality shaping. The result is a portfolio that looks simple on the surface but has a very specific philosophy baked in. It’s not confused, just pretending to be more boring and middle‑of‑the‑road than it actually is.
Growth
Historically, this portfolio basically jogged behind the U.S. market while slightly edging out the global one, which is like bragging about beating the average in a class where the curve is kind. CAGR at 12.68% vs 13.82% for the U.S. benchmark means the value tilt and small caps haven’t exactly been performance heroes lately. Max drawdown at -23.88% is almost identical to the benchmarks, so all that factor spice didn’t buy smoother rides. And 18 days making up 90% of returns just reminds that market timing is a meme; miss a few good days and that pretty growth chart becomes much more average. Past data is helpful, but it’s still hindsight cosplay.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says: “probably fine, but don’t get cocky.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of rolling the dice on thousands of possible futures using past volatility and return patterns, then seeing where the chips land. Median outcome of $2,806 from $1,000 over 15 years with an 8.32% annualized simulated return is solid, but the range is hilarious: from “barely beat cash” to “felt like a genius by accident.” That $979 at the ugly end is the reminder that stocks can absolutely waste a decade. Simulations are like weather forecasts — good for planning, terrible for guarantees.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: 100% stocks, zero subtlety. For something labeled “balanced,” there’s exactly one speed here: equity rollercoaster, no seatbelts from bonds or cash in sight. Asset allocation is basically the “what ingredients are in the stew” question, and this stew is all meat, no potatoes. That’s great when markets are friendly and growthy; less fun when everything decides to fall together and there’s no chill asset to soften the hit. Calling this “balanced” is like calling hot sauce “mild” because you didn’t drink it straight from the bottle. The structure is coherent, just unapologetically risk‑on for something with a mid‑scale risk label.
Sectors
- Technology 20%
- Financials 19%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Energy 8%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is pretending to be diversified, but there’s a clear tech and financials bias at the top. Tech at 20% and financials at 19% is very “modern market in a trench coat,” with industrials and consumer discretionary as the backup dancers. The lower weights in staples, utilities, and real estate mean the traditional defensive sectors are more of a cameo than a cast member. Sector diversification matters because different parts of the economy blow up at different times; here, the economic-cycle-sensitive areas are driving the show. It’s not a meme-stock clown car, but it definitely cares more about growth and business cycles than about boring resilience.
Regions
- North America 62%
- Europe Developed 12%
- Asia Developed 8%
- Japan 6%
- Asia Emerging 6%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Australasia 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this portfolio’s worldview is: North America is the main character, everyone else is supporting cast. With 62% in North America and the rest chopped into small slices across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, it’s pretty textbook “U.S.-centric with some international seasoning.” The 6% in Asia emerging and 2% in Africa/Middle East are more like optional side quests than real commitments. Geographic spread matters because different regions have different currencies, politics, and growth stories; here, the portfolio basically bets that whatever matters most will happen in or around the U.S. The diversification outside the U.S. is real, just not exactly world-tour energy.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 28%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 22%
- Small-cap 16%
- Micro-cap 8%
The market cap mix is where the portfolio quietly stops being boring. Mega and large caps together at 53% look standard, but then you’ve got 22% mid, 16% small, and even 8% micro. That’s a lot of love for the weird little companies that don’t get CNBC airtime. Size tilts can juice returns over long periods but also crank volatility and tracking error — the “why are my returns so different from the headline index?” problem. This setup basically says: “We like the big stable names, but we’re also sneaking into the sketchy end of town for potential bargains.” Sensible on paper, occasionally unhinged in real-time price swings.
True holdings
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AA Apple Inc 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.51%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.96%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.92%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 0.87%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.72%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 12.65%
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects: Apple, NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, TSMC — the full “index celebrity” lineup. None are held directly, they just pop up through the index funds, which means the portfolio pretends to be value-tilted while quietly owning the glamour crowd anyway. With only 20% of the portfolio covered by ETF top 10s, the real overlap is almost certainly higher than shown, so concentration risk in these mega names is understated. This is the classic “I’m a disciplined factor investor but also I own all the popular kids via the core indexes” setup. Not a crime, just funny branding.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is absolutely flying the value and size flags at full mast: 70% value and 63% size tilts are not subtle. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient list behind returns — value means favoring cheaper stocks, size means leaning into smaller companies. Here, it’s like someone read one paper on long-term factor premia and went, “Yes, all of that please.” The rest — momentum, quality, yield, low volatility — sit roughly neutral, so there’s no safety net from extra quality or lower volatility to counterbalance the small/value party. Translation: when value and small caps win, this looks clever; when they don’t, it just looks stubborn.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 30.00% 30.6% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 22.9% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 18.3% -
American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 14.9% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 7.50% 7.0% - Top 5 risk contribution 93.7%
Risk contribution here is pretty democratic, which is almost unsettling. The total U.S. market fund at 30% weight contributes about 30.56% of risk, and the international at 25% weight contributes 22.91% — that’s very “what you see is what you get.” The spicy one is Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value at 15% weight but 18.28% of risk, with a risk/weight of 1.22, meaning it punches above its size in drama. Risk contribution is basically checking who’s shaking the portfolio hardest, not who’s just taking up space. The top three positions driving almost 72% of risk means the backbone is clear — and the small-cap value chunk is the loud cousin.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart is basically screaming, “You left free performance on the table.” With a Sharpe ratio of 0.58 vs 0.90 for the optimal mix — using only the existing funds — the current structure is 2.34 percentage points below the best achievable return at the same risk. The efficient frontier is just the curve of best possible return per unit of volatility; being below it means the ingredients are fine, but the recipe is sloppy. Return at 13.54% with 16.58% risk, when you could have 15.83% return at slightly lower risk, is like deliberately choosing the wobbly, lukewarm version of a meal you already paid for.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 4.10%
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 3.40%
- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.84%
The total yield at 1.84% is very “nice to have, not life-changing.” Dividend yield is just the cash paid out as a percentage of price, and here it’s clearly not the main event. The higher yields in the international small cap value and emerging markets value funds bump things up a bit, but the core broad-market funds sit closer to the low-1% range, keeping the overall income pretty modest. This isn’t some high-income machine; it’s a growth‑first portfolio that happens to drizzle a bit of cash on the side. Anyone expecting fat checks from this lineup is going to be mildly disappointed.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 0.36%
- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 0.15%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
Costs are where this portfolio quietly does something very un-dumb. A total TER of 0.14% is impressively low considering there’s a bunch of active-ish factor funds in the mix. The cheap Vanguard core is doing the heavy lifting at 0.03–0.05%, while the Avantis stuff charges more but not absurdly so (0.15–0.36%). TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is basically the annual cover charge for existing, and here it’s more like a club with a reasonable door fee instead of a tourist trap. You’re not lighting money on fire with fees; if performance lags, it won’t be because of some sneaky cost vampire.
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