A supposedly balanced portfolio that is actually an equity rocket ship in business casual clothing
Report created on Dec 21, 2025Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
SP SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF
SPLG - US78464A8541 60.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
AV American Century ETF Trust
AVMV - US0250721331 10.00%
This setup calls itself “balanced” but it’s basically 99% stocks with a side salad of cash pretending to help. The backbone is a 60% S&P 500 chunk, 20% broad international, plus two 10% satellite funds that lean into smaller and value-flavored U.S. stocks. Compared with a classic balanced mix (think 60% stocks, 40% bonds), this is more like 100% send-it mode with a “moderate” label slapped on for vibes. If the goal is true balance, consider bringing in a real stabilizer like bonds or other low-volatility assets instead of just layering more flavors of equities.
Growth
Those historical numbers look like they were printed in a bull market fairy tale: 23.46% CAGR with only an 18% max drawdown is dreamland stuff. CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, is basically “average yearly speed” over the whole trip. Compared loosely to long-run stock returns around 8–10%, this portfolio has been on performance-enhancing market conditions. But past data is like last season’s weather: useful, not prophetic. Don’t expect 23% to keep showing up like Amazon packages. Plan for more boring, more painful stretches and check if your plans still work at, say, half that return.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections here are wild: median outcome around 1,700% and even the gloomy 5th percentile still at about 470%. Monte Carlo simulations basically roll the dice on many possible future paths using historical patterns, then average the chaos. The problem: if you feed the machine turbocharged past returns, you get fantasy-land futures. It’s like predicting your future fitness by assuming you’ll run every day like that one good week in January. Treat these results as “best-case optimism,” not a blueprint. Consider stress-testing with lower returns and nastier drawdowns to see if your long-term plans still hold up.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Cash 1%
Asset class breakdown: 99% stocks, 1% cash, 0% chill. For something tagged “balanced,” this is basically an equity max-power build. Stocks are great for long-term growth but they throw tantrums in crashes, and there is essentially nothing here to calm them down. A real balanced mix uses different asset classes that don’t all jump off the same cliff at once. If the label truly matters, think about adding uncorrelated stuff: bonds, short-term fixed income, or other defensive assets that can cushion hits instead of just cheering while everything swings together. Right now, this is “all gas, no brakes” wearing a blazer.
Sectors
- Technology 25%
- Financials 17%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Industrials 11%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is basically the S&P 500 with some extra spice: tech at 25%, financials at 17%, plus solid helpings of cyclicals and industrials. Nothing is outrageously weird, but it does mean you’re very tied to how big U.S. corporate capitalism feels about life. When tech and consumer sentiment wobble, this whole setup catches a cold. A bit of praise: at least it’s not a single-sector obsession like “all tech all the time.” Still, consider whether you want this much of your fate hitched to growth-sensitive sectors, and whether some more defensive tilt or diversification would help smooth the emotional roller coaster.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geography says “America first and second and maybe third”: 81% North America, with the rest of the world sprinkled on top like garnish. Yes, the U.S. is the biggest and most dominant market, but global diversification exists for a reason: sometimes other regions have their moment while the U.S. sulks. A surprisingly sensible bit is that at least there is *some* international exposure via the 20% global fund, so it’s not totally USA-or-bust. Still, this is heavily home-biased. Anyone wanting more resilience to U.S.-specific messes could dial up non-U.S. exposure or use more balanced global building blocks instead of just a token overseas slice.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 36%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 22%
- Small-cap 9%
- Micro-cap 5%
Market cap mix is actually one of the more entertaining parts: 36% mega, 27% big, 22% mid, 9% small, 5% micro. Translation: mostly large, steady giants with a noticeable side habit of smaller, rowdier companies. The small-cap value tilt is like putting hot sauce on an already spicy dish—more flavor, more kick, more heartburn risk in bad markets. This can boost long-term returns but it also makes drawdowns sting more. If someone can stomach higher volatility and long stretches of underperformance, fine. If not, maybe ease off the small/micro tilt and let the core large-cap exposure do more of the heavy lifting.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationAmerican Century ETF TrustAvantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
The correlation story is basically “everything crashes together.” The two satellite ETFs (American Century and Avantis small-cap value) are highly correlated, so they’re mostly just doubling down on the same kind of U.S. equity risk rather than spreading it out. Correlation is just how similarly things move: if two funds dance in sync, owning both doesn’t help much in a storm. This portfolio is like having four flavors of soda and calling it hydration diversity. Trimming overlapping holdings and using slots for truly different risk drivers—like bonds, real assets, or uncorrelated strategies—would actually earn the word “diversified.”
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Risk versus return here is loud but not exactly efficient. The optimizer basically said, “You could get more expected return for the same risk or the same return for less drama.” Efficient just means best bang for your buck on the risk–reward tradeoff, not fantasyland “high returns with no risk.” Right now, the overlap and heavy equity focus mean you’re not using your risk budget as smartly as you could. Trimming redundant, highly correlated positions and adding truly different assets could shift you closer to that efficient frontier curve instead of hanging out in the “extra stress, same payoff” zone.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 1.40%
- American Century ETF Trust 1.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.22%
Total yield around 1.22% is basically a polite nod, not an income strategy. This is firmly in the “total return” camp, where growth matters more than steady cash payouts. Nothing wrong with that, but anyone dreaming of living off dividends here is going to end up disappointed and probably still working. Dividend yield is just the cash you get annually as a percentage of what you invested—this portfolio clearly prioritizes reinvested growth over cash flow. If long-term growth is the goal, cool. If reliable income matters, shifting some weight toward higher-yield, more stable payers or income-focused assets would be needed, not just hoping 1.2% magically stretches.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 0.02%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- American Century ETF Trust 0.20%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
Costs are the one area where this thing is oddly disciplined: a 0.07% total expense ratio is impressively low. That’s “you actually read the fee column” energy. ETFs like these typically don’t bleed you dry, and you’ve mostly avoided the high-fee clown show. Still, don’t get smug—low cost on a hyper-equity, highly correlated mix is like buying cheap race fuel for a car with no airbags. The structure could be cleaner: fewer overlapping equity funds, same low cost, better clarity. Use the low-fee mindset as a base and apply the same ruthlessness to simplifying holdings and introducing real diversification, not just more of the same.
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