Concentrated growth portfolio with strong technology tilt and historically high returns but meaningful single stock risk (Weights normalized from 100.01% to 100%)
Report created on Sep 21, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 55.99% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AS Ast Spacemobile Inc
ASTS - US00217D1000 6.67% -
MU Micron Technology Inc
MU - US5951121038 6.67% -
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM - US8740391003 6.67% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 4.00%
This portfolio is a concentrated all‑equity mix, anchored by broad index ETFs with a few bold single-stock picks. Around 56% sits in a US large‑cap index ETF and 20% in a global ex‑US index ETF, giving a solid core. The remaining weight goes to three individual tech-related stocks and a small US small‑cap value ETF. That mix combines broad market exposure with targeted satellite positions. Structurally, this is clearly built for growth rather than stability, since there are no bonds or cash buffers. The presence of both diversified funds and focused single names means overall behavior will reflect the broad market, but big moves in the individual stocks can noticeably sway short‑term results.
Growth
From late 2019 to late 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $4,496, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.51%. CAGR is like average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out all the ups and downs into one yearly figure. This easily beat both the US market (15.90% CAGR) and the global market (13.28% CAGR) over the same period. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -31.9%, similar to the benchmarks’ early‑2020 falls. That combination—higher return with a comparable maximum drop—shows that, historically, the concentrated growth tilt was rewarded, though this period has been very friendly to tech and US equities, which may not repeat.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks forward 15 years by simulating many possible return paths using historical patterns plus randomness. Think of it as rolling the dice 1,000 times to see a range of futures, not one prediction. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,761, with a “likely” middle band between roughly $1,795 and $3,985. Extreme cases range from about $983 to $7,752. Across all simulations, the average annual return is 7.97%, but 26.5% of runs still end below the starting value. This highlights that even with an equity‑heavy portfolio that historically performed very well, future paths can be bumpy and outcomes spread widely.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. Asset classes are broad buckets—like stocks, bonds, and real estate—that tend to behave differently in various market conditions. A 100% stock allocation usually means higher long‑term growth potential but also larger swings along the way, especially during market stress. Compared with many blended portfolios that mix in bonds for stability, this structure leans fully into equity risk. That aligns with the portfolio’s “growth” classification and 5/7 risk score. The benefit is full participation when markets rise, but the trade‑off is limited cushioning when markets fall, since there are no defensive asset classes to offset equity volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 46%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, about 46% of the portfolio is in technology, with the rest spread across financials, industrials, consumer areas, health care, telecoms, and other smaller sectors. Broad global benchmarks typically have a sizable tech presence, but this level represents a clear tech tilt. Sector concentration matters because different parts of the economy react differently to interest rates, regulation, and economic cycles. A tech‑heavy portfolio can enjoy outsized gains when innovation and growth are rewarded, but it may also experience sharper moves during periods of rising rates or when sentiment turns against high‑growth business models. The positive here is that other sectors are still represented, providing some diversification.
Regions
- North America 75%
- Asia Emerging 9%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 75% of the portfolio is in North America, with the rest scattered across emerging Asia, developed Europe, Japan, and smaller regions. Global market‑cap benchmarks are also heavily tilted to North America, so this overweight is directionally aligned but somewhat more US‑centric than a strict world index. Geographic exposure matters because economies, currencies, and policy environments differ. When North America does well, this concentration can boost returns; when it lags other regions, the portfolio feels that more. The international allocation still provides meaningful exposure to non‑US companies and currencies, which can help when leadership rotates globally, but the home‑region influence clearly dominates.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 48%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 2%
By market value, the portfolio leans heavily toward mega‑ and large‑cap companies, which together make up around 80% of exposure, with 14% in mid‑caps and about 5% in small and micro‑caps. Market capitalization buckets reflect company size, which often ties to business maturity and volatility. Larger firms tend to be more stable and widely followed; smaller ones can move more sharply, both up and down. This mix is broadly similar to global equity benchmarks, with a modest extra dose of smaller companies through the dedicated small‑cap value ETF and some individual names. That balance gives the portfolio both the stability of giants and the potential punch of smaller, more volatile stocks.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.15%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.34%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 39.24%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a few big names stand out: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet together form a meaningful slice of the portfolio via the index funds. Micron also shows up twice—once as a direct stock and again inside ETFs—bringing its total exposure to about 7.6%. Overlap like this can create hidden concentration, because a company may look small inside each fund but add up in aggregate. Here, coverage only includes ETF top‑10s, so actual overlap is likely higher. The benefit is strong exposure to globally dominant businesses, but it also means portfolio behavior is tied closely to how these mega‑cap leaders perform.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
The displayed model classifies size exposure as low, while value, momentum, quality, yield and low volatility are neutral. The small-cap value fund is only about 4% of this portfolio, so it does not make the overall portfolio a small-cap strategy. These historical model estimates do not remove the concentration in individual companies and technology businesses, and they do not predict future returns.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 55.99% 45.5% -
Ast Spacemobile Inc
Weight: 6.67% 16.1% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 14.5% -
Micron Technology Inc
Weight: 6.67% 11.8% -
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Weight: 6.67% 8.3% - Top 5 risk contribution 96.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives total portfolio volatility, which can differ a lot from its weight. The S&P 500 ETF is 56% of the portfolio but contributes about 46% of the risk—less risk per dollar than its size might suggest. By contrast, Ast Spacemobile is only 6.7% of the weight but over 16% of the risk, with risk/weight roughly 2.4x. Micron and TSMC also punch above their weights in risk terms. Altogether, the top three positions drive about 76% of total risk. This pattern is typical when mixing broad ETFs with a few volatile single stocks: a relatively small satellite can be the “loudest instrument” in the risk orchestra.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The chart compares hypothetical allocations using the same holdings and historical estimates. Its results depend on the sample period and estimated returns and correlations; they are not evidence that this allocation is optimal going forward. A lower-volatility mix can involve a different trade-off in estimated return. These calculations do not assess investments outside this set, taxes, trading costs or your personal objectives, and they are not a recommendation to trade.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Micron Technology Inc 0.10%
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.08%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.08%, with the international ETF offering around 2.1%, the small‑cap value ETF 1.6%, and the main US ETF roughly 1.0%. Dividends are cash payments companies make to shareholders, and they can be a steady component of total return, especially over long horizons. Here, the relatively low portfolio yield fits with a growth‑oriented, tech‑tilted equity mix, where many companies focus more on reinvesting profits than paying them out. That means most of the portfolio’s return historically and likely going forward is expected to come from price changes rather than income, which aligns with its classification as a growth‑focused strategy.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
The portfolio’s costs are impressively low. The main S&P 500 ETF charges a 0.03% total expense ratio (TER), the international ETF 0.05%, and the small‑cap value ETF 0.25%, for a blended TER of about 0.04%. TER is the annual fee charged by a fund, a bit like a small ongoing service cost. Low costs matter because they come off returns every year and compound over time. Compared with many actively managed funds that charge several times more, this fee level supports better long‑term performance by leaving more of the portfolio’s gross return in investors’ pockets. As a structural feature, this is a real strength of the current setup.
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