Simple index fan with a quiet momentum addiction hiding under the hood
Report created on Jun 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00%
This “three fund” setup is really a one-trick pony with two backup dancers. Seventy percent in a plain S&P 500 tracker does all the heavy lifting, 20% in broad foreign stocks adds a polite nod to the rest of the planet, and 10% in a momentum ETF is the guilty pleasure. It looks diversified at a glance, but structurally it’s basically “US big tech plus friends.” The simplicity is nice, but it crosses the line into “hope the index gods stay kind.” When almost everything rides on one broad index, the portfolio lives and dies with whatever the US large-cap machine decides to do.
Growth
Historically, this thing has been spoiled. Turning $1,000 into about $4,022 with a 16.73% CAGR is not investing, it’s catching a ride on a rocket. It barely edged the US market and comfortably beat the global market, which mostly tells you one thing: being heavily tied to a roaring US bull run worked. The -33.54% max drawdown in early 2020 was violent but unsurprising for an all-stock setup. Needing only 37 days to generate 90% of returns is the giveaway: results were driven by a handful of huge days. Past data here is basically a highlight reel, not a guarantee the sequel will be as generous.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection takes that lovely history and runs thousands of “what if” futures, most of which are far less exciting. Median outcome of $2,866 after 15 years off a $1,000 start is solid but nowhere near the backward-looking thrill ride. The possible range from about $1,027 to $7,972 screams: “Yes, this can absolutely disappoint you.” An 8.41% average simulated return per year is financial-grownup territory, not meme-stock territory. It’s a reminder that markets don’t care how good the last decade felt. Yesterday’s outperformance is treated as a starting point for random chaos, not a promise that the US mega-cap fairy keeps showing up.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes here are about as varied as a restaurant that only serves one dish: 100% stocks, zero anything else. There’s no bonds, no cash buffer, no alternatives — just pure equity roller coaster. That’s fine if the goal is growth and white-knuckle volatility, but it also means every shock hits full force with no seatbelts. In asset class terms, this is “all gas, no brakes.” When markets are kind, it looks brave. When markets aren’t, it looks stubborn. There’s no built-in dampening mechanism; the only defense against bad years is hoping the good ones eventually show up again on schedule.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is clearly worshipping at the altar of tech and its close cousins. Technology at 34% is a near-third of the whole show, with financials, industrials, and telecom trailing at much more modest levels. It’s like calling it diversified because there are a few non-tech booths in a tech conference. When a single broad growth engine drives so much of the risk and return, sector diversification is more theory than reality. If that leading sector stumbles after a decade of dominance, the portfolio doesn’t just feel it — it pretty much catches the entire fall face-first.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this thing is doing the classic “America is the world” routine. With 81% in North America and only 19% thrown at everywhere else combined, the so-called international slice is more of a participation trophy than a true global balance. Europe, Japan, emerging markets — they’re all side characters. The result is a portfolio that tracks US sentiment above all else. When the US leads, this looks genius. When it lags, there’s not enough foreign exposure to meaningfully offset the drag. It’s global exposure in the same way visiting one international terminal at an airport counts as travel.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 1%
Market cap exposure is basically a who’s who of the biggest kids in the playground: 45% mega-cap, 35% large-cap, and a token nod to mid- and small-caps. With just 1% in small-caps, the so-called “broad” market is mostly the extremely famous end of town. That means performance is massively shaped by a tiny group of giant companies, while the entire universe of smaller businesses barely moves the needle. It’s comfortable and familiar, but also kind of lazy in terms of growth hunting. When megacaps dominate, everything’s fine; when they wobble, there isn’t much ballast from the smaller, scrappier side of the market.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.85%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.49%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 30.84%
The look-through holdings read like the usual “Magnificent Seven plus friends” greatest hits album. NVIDIA at 6.34%, Apple at 4.94%, Microsoft at 3.60%, then Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla — all stuffed in through multiple index products. This is the hidden overlap effect: it looks like three funds, but under the hood it’s the same handful of names on repeat. Because only top-10 ETF holdings are analyzed, the true overlap is probably even worse. The portfolio pretends to be diversified but is actually just a very elaborate way to double and triple down on the most crowded mega-cap growth trades of the past decade.
Factors
Factor exposure is almost suspiciously normal. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility — everything sits around “neutral,” including momentum despite explicitly holding a momentum ETF. That’s like ordering the spicy option and ending up with mild. Factor investing is basically checking which styles you’ve secretly bet on — cheap stocks, fast-rising ones, stable ones, and so on. Here, the profile says “I’m just hugging the market” rather than taking bold tilts. The upside is fewer weird surprises when certain styles rotate; the downside is this portfolio is paying for a bit of factor flavor and serving mostly plain index soup instead.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 71.7% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.5% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.8%
Risk contribution is where the façade of equal importance disappears. The S&P 500 ETF is 70% of the weight and 71.72% of the total risk; it’s the main character and everyone else is supporting cast. The international fund chips in 17.51% of risk off 20% weight, and the momentum slice does 10.77% of risk off 10% weight — slightly punchier, but nothing insane. In other words, there are no tiny troublemakers swinging volatility; the whole thing is just one big, concentrated equity bet. The portfolio doesn’t pretend otherwise: if the S&P decides to have a mood swing, the entire risk profile follows it obediently.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is basically doing its job. With a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 compared to a max possible 1.04 using the same ingredients, it’s not winning any optimization beauty contests but it’s also not face-planting. The tool says the current mix sits on or very close to the frontier, which means for this specific set of funds, the trade-off between risk and return is actually respectable. Reweighting could squeeze out better risk-adjusted returns, but the existing setup is far from a disaster. For such a basic three-ETF structure, landing near the frontier is either smart construction or dumb luck that happened to work.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.26%
Dividend yield at 1.26% is basically pocket change in income terms. The momentum ETF at 0.60% and S&P 500 at 1.00% drag the average down; the only one trying to pay a real paycheck is the international fund at 2.50%. This portfolio clearly isn’t built for cash flow — it’s more about price gains and hoping the chart goes up over time. Dividends here are a side quest, not the main story. Anyone expecting meaningful passive income from this mix is really just collecting small coupons while riding a roller coaster powered almost entirely by capital appreciation drama.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are impressively low — a 0.04% total TER is practically charity in ETF land. That’s “did I just smuggle diversification through security?” level cheap. Even the fanciest piece, the momentum ETF at 0.13%, isn’t exactly gouging anyone. Fees are not the villain in this story; if anything, they’re the one thing quietly working in the portfolio’s favor every single year. It’s almost ironic: the structure is simple, concentrated, and index-hugging, but at least it’s doing that job on the bargain rack. If the results disappoint, it won’t be because the funds picked your pocket on expenses.
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