Aggressive growth vibes riding tiny data and a not so secret tech and factor crush
Report created on Jul 21, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 45.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 10.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 5.00% -
CH Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF
CHPS - US23306X8864 5.00%
This portfolio is basically a sensible two-fund global core that got raided by a factor nerd on a caffeine bender. The 70% in broad US and international stocks screams “boring and diversified,” but then 30% is shoved into small value, momentum, and a semiconductor sliver like an overconfident side quest. Structurally it’s 80% normal person, 20% quant Twitter cosplay. With only about 1.3 years of data, it’s impossible to say whether this Franken-blend is genius or just lucky timing. Right now it looks coherent enough, but the add-ons clearly exist to dial things up, not smooth things out.
Growth
On paper, the recent performance looks outrageous: about 32.7% CAGR, turning $1,000 into roughly $1,453 and handily beating both US and global markets. For a 1.3‑year window, though, that’s basically judging a marathon from the first mile downhill with a tailwind. The max drawdown around -14% was market-like, so it didn’t blow up in the one wobble it faced, but that’s not exactly a stress test. The fact that just 12 days delivered 90% of returns screams “fragile luck cluster,” not “reliable engine.” Past data is helpful, but here it’s mostly noise dressed up as a track record.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection, which is basically a thousand alternate-universe futures spun from past volatility and returns, spits out a median $2,738 after 15 years from $1,000. Looked at casually, that sounds pretty great; looked at honestly, it’s built on a paper-thin 1.3‑year history and a very hot recent run. The wide range — from roughly $954 to $8,382 — quietly admits, “We have no idea.” Simulations are like weather models: decent once you’ve seen enough seasons, far less convincing when you’ve only watched one slightly weird spring.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class “diversification” here is a joke setup: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. This is not a mix, it’s an on/off switch labeled “equities.” That’s fine if the intent is pure growth, but let’s not pretend the diversification score of “moderately diversified” applies across asset types. When the stock market sneezes, this portfolio catches pneumonia because there’s nothing in here that dances to a different tune. The upside is clean, simple exposure. The downside is roller-coaster potential with no other asset class acting as a seatbelt.
Sectors
- Technology 32%
- Financials 16%
- Industrials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, tech is running the show at 32%, and that’s before counting the turbo-charged semiconductor ETF sitting on top. Financials and industrials give it some grown-up balance, but the tilt still reads as “market-ish core with an extra shot of chip mania.” It’s like buying a regular burger and then stacking it with pure bacon just in case the fat content was too low. When the semiconductor cycle turns, the party stops abruptly. Compared with broad indexes, this is clearly more tech-curious, especially in one of the most boom‑bust corners of the market.
Regions
- North America 70%
- Europe Developed 12%
- Japan 6%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, it’s “USA first, everyone else eventually”: about 70% North America and the rest scattered modestly across Europe, Japan, and the rest of the world. For a US-based portfolio that’s pretty normal, but it’s still a strong home bias dressed up with international window dressing. At least there is real non-US exposure — this isn’t a “world” fund that accidentally means “mostly America.” The global bits do pull in multiple regions, but they’re still supporting actors; the US is clearly the main character with top billing on the poster.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 33%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 13%
- Micro-cap 6%
The market-cap breakdown is surprisingly grown-up: one-third mega-cap, another chunk large and mid, and then a noticeable but not insane tilt into small and even micro caps. This isn’t a full-on small-cap daredevil act, but you can see the factor flavor trying to sneak more spicy, smaller names into the mix. The risk, as always with smaller companies, is that volatility and business risk ramp up faster than your conviction. Right now, it looks like a broad market base with a modest “please let small caps finally have their moment” side bet.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.02%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 2.84%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.07%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.62%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.31%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.08%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.02%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 16.23%
The look-through top holdings list is basically the stock-market Avengers: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, TSMC, Meta, and friends. So yes, the portfolio is diversified… across every mega-cap growth darling everyone else also owns. Semis show up again via NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC, so the chip obsession isn’t just that one explicit ETF — it’s soaked into the core funds too. Overlap is probably worse than shown because we only see ETF top 10s, so the real message is: this portfolio is quietly more concentrated in big tech winners than it pretends.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is where this thing drops the mask: high value tilt and high momentum at the same time, with very low size exposure. That combo is like trying to drive with one foot on the gas and the other on the experimental pedal no one fully understands. Value tilt means more emphasis on cheaper stocks; momentum favors recent winners. Those aren’t exactly natural best friends, so the portfolio ends up feeling like a mash-up of opposing styles that could cancel each other out or just amplify whiplash. With only short history, it’s impossible to know if the cocktail actually works or just looks clever.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 45.00% 42.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 22.7% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.8% -
Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF
Weight: 5.00% 10.3% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.6% - Top 5 risk contribution 95.8%
Risk contribution shows who’s really shaking the portfolio, and the core US and international funds together drive about two-thirds of the volatility, roughly in line with their weights. That part is actually pretty sane. The semiconductor ETF is the loud kid in the back of the class: only 5% weight but over 10% of the total risk, with a risk/weight ratio north of 2. It’s doing way more drama than its slice of the pie suggests. This is the classic “small satellite, big trouble” setup — one minor-looking position that can move overall results far more than it visually deserves.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart is not kind: the current portfolio sits a good 4.96 percentage points below its own efficient frontier at this risk level. Translation: using the exact same ingredients, just rearranged differently, history says you could have had better risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio of 1.39 looks fine until it stands next to 2.07 for the “optimal” mix and 1.52 for the minimum-variance version. That’s like building a pretty fast car and then parking it with the handbrake half on. You’re paying for risk you’re not fully converting into return, at least in this short data window.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.90%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.46%
The yield at about 1.46% is politely shrugging in the corner — this portfolio clearly doesn’t wake up in the morning thinking about income. A couple of the value and international funds chip in a more respectable yield, but momentum, chips, and broad US growth drag the average back down. This is fine if the point is capital growth, but it means almost all the heavy lifting relies on price moves, not checks dropping into your account. Any “dividend strategy” here is strictly accidental, not a defining feature.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are probably the most embarrassingly reasonable part of this whole setup: a total expense ratio of 0.08% is dirt cheap. The core Vanguard funds are basically charging pocket lint, and even the pricier factor and small-cap stuff is within normal, not gouge-y, ranges. It’s almost suspiciously rational for a portfolio that otherwise indulges in spicy tilts. Fees aren’t the villain in this story — if anything, they’re the one adult in the room quietly making sure the chaos doesn’t get even more expensive than it needs to be.
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