High value and small cap tilt with strong recent returns and globally diversified stock exposure
Report created on Sep 6, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 40.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
BK BNY Mellon International Equity ETF
BKIE - US09661T4040 20.00%
This portfolio is made up of four stock ETFs, with no bonds or alternative assets. About 40% sits in a broad US total market fund, giving coverage from mega-cap to small-cap US companies. The remaining 60% is split evenly across US small-cap value, international small-cap value, and a broad international equity fund. This structure leans toward equities that are smaller and cheaper than the overall market while still keeping a large, diversified core. Because everything is in stocks, return potential is higher than a mixed-stock-and-bond blend, but so is sensitivity to market swings, especially during global equity selloffs.
Growth
From April 2020 to September 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,195. That translates into a 20.08% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which is the “average speed” of growth per year over the period. This comfortably outpaced both the US market (18.69% CAGR) and the global market (16.95% CAGR). The maximum drawdown, or worst peak-to-trough fall, was about -24.4%, similar to the benchmarks. The portfolio took around 15 months to recover from that slump, which is typical for a fully equity allocation. Outperformance came without a noticeably deeper decline, which is a positive historic pattern but not a guarantee going forward.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many random “what if” paths based on historical volatility and returns to estimate future outcomes. Here, 1,000 simulations over 15 years turn $1,000 into a median outcome of about $2,832, or an annualized return of 8.34%. The middle half of scenarios (from the 25th to 75th percentile) ranges roughly between $1,869 and $4,344, showing a wide but realistic band. The 5th–95th percentile span is even wider, from about $1,092 to $7,759, illustrating that stock-heavy portfolios can end up quite far apart depending on future markets. These are statistical possibilities, not promises, and real-world returns can land outside these ranges.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is allocated to stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or other asset classes. That makes it straightforward to understand but also means diversification is happening only within equities, not across different types of investments. Stock-only portfolios typically offer higher long-run growth potential but can see larger and faster drops than mixes that include steadier assets like bonds. Compared with broad “balanced” blends that mix stocks and bonds, this portfolio is more growth-tilted and relies on equity markets alone to manage risk and return. The lack of other asset classes is an intentional trade-off between simplicity, growth focus, and day-to-day stability.
Sectors
- Technology 18%
- Financials 18%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Energy 8%
- Basic Materials 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is quite balanced relative to many global equity benchmarks. Technology and financials each sit around 18%, with industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, and basic materials forming sizable secondary weights. Health care, telecom, and consumer staples are present but not dominant, while utilities and real estate are small slices. This spread means the portfolio is not overly tied to any single economic theme, like tech or commodities alone. In practice, it should benefit from a range of business cycles: stronger consumer demand, manufacturing growth, and periods when financials and cyclicals are rewarded. A balanced sector mix like this is a strong foundation for diversified stock risk.
Regions
- North America 64%
- Europe Developed 18%
- Japan 11%
- Australasia 3%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 64% of the portfolio is in North America, with 18% in developed Europe, 11% in Japan, and smaller allocations across Australasia, other developed Asia, and Africa/Middle East. This means the portfolio is US-tilted but still has meaningful overseas exposure, closer to a global mix than a pure domestic play. Compared to a pure world index, North America is somewhat overweight, while some other regions are slightly lighter. This structure spreads business and currency risk across multiple economies, helping reduce dependence on any single market. It also means returns will reflect both US conditions and developments in major international markets.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 21%
- Small-cap 20%
- Large-cap 20%
- Micro-cap 12%
The portfolio spans the full market-cap spectrum, from mega-caps at 27% down to micro-caps at 12%. Mid-, small-, and large-caps each represent about 20–21%. That is much more tilted toward smaller companies than a typical global index, where mega- and large-caps usually dominate. Smaller companies tend to be more volatile and sensitive to economic conditions, but historically they have sometimes offered higher long-run returns. Having a meaningful micro- and small-cap slice also introduces more company-specific risk and less analyst coverage. This broad spread by size supports diversification, while the small-cap emphasis adds extra potential upside and downside compared to a large-cap-heavy approach.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 2.34%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.27%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.15%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.72%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.65%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 12.75%
Looking through the top ETF holdings, the largest underlying positions are familiar mega-cap names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, and Meta. Each of these individually accounts for less than about 2.6% of the total portfolio, and the top overlapping names together still make up a modest portion of overall exposure. This shows that, despite the strong small-cap value tilt, the portfolio keeps a meaningful anchor in dominant global franchises. Because only ETF top-10 holdings are captured, overlap is likely understated, but the visible data suggests no single company dominates. Hidden concentration risk from repeated mega-cap positions appears contained here.
Factors
Factor exposure shows clear tilts toward value at 68% and size at 62%, both categorized as high. Value exposure means the portfolio leans toward companies trading at lower prices relative to fundamentals, which historically have sometimes outperformed but can lag during growth-driven markets. The size tilt reflects the higher weighting in smaller companies compared with a market-average portfolio. Other factors—momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility—are all close to neutral, suggesting the main intentional “ingredients” here are value and smaller size. In practice, this can lead to performance that diverges meaningfully from broad indices, especially during style cycles where value or small-caps strongly lead or trail.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.00% 38.1% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 25.9% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 18.6% -
BNY Mellon International Equity ETF
Weight: 20.00% 17.4%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. The US total market ETF is 40% of the assets and contributes about 38% of risk, roughly in line with its size. The US small-cap value fund, at 20% weight, contributes a higher 25.9% of risk, showing it is more volatile and influential than its share suggests. The two international funds each contribute slightly less risk than their weights. Overall, the top three funds account for about 82.6% of total volatility. That means portfolio behavior is especially shaped by the core US exposure plus the US small-cap value sleeve.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, the current portfolio sits below the efficient frontier by about 1.19 percentage points at its risk level. The efficient frontier is the curve showing the best possible return for each risk level using just these four holdings in different mixes. The optimal portfolio on this curve has a higher Sharpe ratio (1.17 vs 0.92), meaning better risk-adjusted returns, while the minimum-variance mix achieves lower risk for a still-decent Sharpe. This indicates that, historically, simply reweighting these existing ETFs could have delivered more efficient use of risk. Even so, the current allocation still has a respectable Sharpe and sits reasonably close to the frontier.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.60%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- BNY Mellon International Equity ETF 3.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.78%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.78%, with individual funds ranging from roughly 1.0% to 3.1%. Yield represents the cash income from dividends as a percentage of the investment’s value. In this case, dividends provide a modest but real part of total return, with most of the growth historically coming from price appreciation rather than income. The higher yields from the international equity and international small-cap value funds add some income balance to the lower-yielding US pieces. For a 100% equity portfolio with a value and small-cap tilt, this blended yield is quite typical and can help smooth returns slightly during flat or mildly negative markets.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- BNY Mellon International Equity ETF 0.04%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is a low 0.14%, calculated from the weighted costs of the four ETFs. Individual fund fees range from 0.03% to 0.36% annually. TER is the ongoing annual management fee expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly eats into returns over time. Here, the use of very low-cost core funds, especially the Vanguard and BNY Mellon ETFs, keeps overall costs impressively contained. This is well below the costs of many active funds and supports better compounding over long horizons. With a stock-heavy portfolio where returns come mainly from market exposure, keeping fees this low is a clear structural strength.
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