Concentrated US growth portfolio with broad global exposure and efficient low cost equity structure
Report created on Sep 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00%
The portfolio is a simple three-ETF mix fully invested in stocks, with a strong tilt to the US. Around 70% sits in a broad US large-cap index, 20% in a diversified international stock fund, and 10% in a US small-cap value ETF. This structure keeps things straightforward while still adding some variety through non-US and smaller-company exposure. A fully equity portfolio like this tends to focus on long-term growth rather than short-term stability. The small position in a more specialized ETF adds a distinct flavor without dominating the overall mix, which helps keep the portfolio understandable and easy to monitor.
Growth
Over the period from late 2019 to late 2026, $1,000 grew to about $2,698, implying a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.31%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out the bumps along the way. The portfolio slightly lagged the US market benchmark but clearly beat the global market benchmark, reflecting its heavy US tilt. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -35% during early 2020, recovering in roughly five months. That’s typical for an all-equity mix: strong long-run growth with sharp but recoverable dips. As always, past returns show what happened, not what must happen next.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation projects many possible 15-year futures using patterns from historical data. It’s like running 1,000 alternate timelines to see a range of outcomes rather than a single forecast. The median path turns $1,000 into about $2,668, with a “likely” middle band between roughly $1,700 and $4,200. There’s also a wide possible range from under $1,000 to over $7,700, highlighting how uncertain long-term investing can be. The average simulated annual return of about 8% reflects a typical expectation for a diversified equity portfolio, but it’s not a promise. These simulations are useful for framing risk, less so for predicting exact numbers.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class exposure is as clean as it gets: 100% in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternatives in the mix. Stocks historically offer higher growth potential but also larger and more frequent swings in value compared with bonds or cash. That’s why this portfolio lands in a “growth” risk bucket. Because everything is in equities, diversification comes mainly from different regions, company sizes, and sectors, not from mixing in stabilizing assets. This structure can work well for focusing on long-term capital growth, while also meaning short-term portfolio value is more tied to the equity market’s ups and downs.
Sectors
- Technology 32%
- Financials 16%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Industrials 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is tilted toward Technology at about 32%, with Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Health Care making up much of the rest. This is broadly in line with many modern global equity benchmarks, which are also tech-heavy, so the allocation is well-aligned with how markets are currently structured. Tech-led portfolios can benefit when innovation and digital business models drive returns, but they may also be more sensitive when interest rates rise or sentiment turns against high-growth companies. The presence of Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples helps add some cyclical balance, contributing to diversification across different parts of the economy.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, about 81% of the portfolio is in North America, with the remaining slice spread across Europe, Japan, developed Asia, emerging Asia, and smaller allocations to other regions. This is more US-heavy than the broader global market, where non-US markets represent a larger share of global stock value. The advantage of this tilt is that it aligns closely with the strong historical run of US equities. The trade-off is that economic, political, or currency shocks centered on one region could have an outsized impact. The international component still adds valuable diversification but does not fully mirror global market weights.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 41%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 5%
Market capitalization exposure is dominated by large, established companies, with mega- and large-caps together making up over 70% of the portfolio. Mid-, small-, and micro-caps still play a meaningful role, adding around 28% combined. Large companies tend to be more stable and widely followed, while smaller companies can be more volatile but sometimes grow faster. This mix leans toward the steadier side of the equity spectrum while still leaving room for the often more dynamic behavior of smaller firms. The added small-cap value slice helps ensure that the portfolio is not purely driven by mega-cap names alone.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.66%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 4.92%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.69%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.11%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 26.47%
Looking through to underlying holdings, the top indirect exposures are some of the largest global technology and consumer companies. Names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta appear via the index ETFs, together forming a noticeable portion of the portfolio’s top layer. Because these companies show up in multiple funds, there is some overlap that concentrates exposure more than the simple three-ETF list suggests. At the same time, this is quite typical for index-based portfolios, since many broad funds hold the same mega-cap leaders. The coverage only reflects ETF top-10 positions, so actual overlap is likely higher than shown.
Factors
Factor exposure is broadly neutral across all six measured dimensions: value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility, and yield. Factor exposure describes how much a portfolio leans into certain traits that research links to returns, like favoring cheap stocks (value) or stable ones (low volatility). Scores here sit close to the 50% “market average” mark, meaning the portfolio behaves much like a broad equity market basket rather than targeting any specific style. The small-cap value ETF introduces a slight value and size flavor, but the large core index holdings dominate, keeping the overall profile balanced and relatively straightforward.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 70.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.5% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 12.1%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the US large-cap ETF is 70% of assets and contributes about 70% of risk, so its influence is almost exactly proportional. The international ETF contributes slightly less risk than its weight, while the small-cap value ETF contributes more risk than its 10% allocation suggests, reflecting its higher volatility. This pattern is common: more specialized, smaller-company funds punch above their weight in risk terms. Overall, risk is concentrated but not extreme, matching the straightforward three-fund structure.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests this portfolio is on or very near the frontier, meaning the current mix makes good use of its three ingredients for its chosen risk level. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk after adjusting for the risk-free rate, is 0.63 for the current portfolio, compared with 0.81 for the mathematically optimal mix using the same funds. The minimum-variance option would reduce risk slightly but also lower expected return. Being close to the frontier is a positive sign: it indicates that, within this simple fund lineup, the tradeoff between risk and return is already well-structured.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.30%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.32%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.32%, with the international ETF paying the highest yield and the US large-cap ETF the lowest. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, similar to interest on a savings account but less predictable. At this level, most of the portfolio’s return historically comes from price growth rather than income. That lines up with its growth-oriented posture and focus on equities. Dividends still provide some steady return component, especially from international and value-tilted holdings, but they are clearly a secondary driver compared with capital appreciation.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) averages about 0.06%, which is impressively low. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of invested assets, and it quietly reduces returns over time. Two of the ETFs are extremely cheap broad index funds, while the specialized small-cap value fund has a somewhat higher but still modest fee. Keeping overall costs this low is a strong structural advantage, as every dollar not spent on fees stays invested and can compound. Relative to many actively managed or higher-fee options, this cost profile is a clear strength.
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