Semis and small value spice wedged into an otherwise sensible global index burrito
Report created on Apr 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 39.40% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 21.80% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 13.94% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 11.56% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 7.60% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 5.70%
This portfolio looks like someone started with a perfectly boring three‑fund global setup and then got tempted by the “spicy extras” menu. Nearly two‑thirds lives in broad vanilla indexes, and then you bolt on small-cap value and a semiconductor rocket booster like a side quest. Structurally, it’s coherent but a bit overengineered: a core that already owns everything, plus satellites that… mostly own the same everything but louder in certain corners. It’s not chaotic, just needlessly fancy. The vibe is, “I trust market cap indexes, but also I’m pretty sure I can out‑smart them with a few clever tilts.” That mix can work, but it’s very easy to end up just adding noise and ego.
Growth
Historically, this thing has been in show‑off mode: turning $1,000 into $2,720 beats both the US market and global market, with a 16.48% CAGR vs 15.84% and 13.32%. CAGR — Compound Annual Growth Rate — is basically your average speed over the whole trip, potholes included. The catch: you earned that extra 0.64% over the US by stomaching a deeper -36.31% drawdown when things went south around early 2020. That’s a little more pain than the benchmarks for not a ton more gain. It worked out this time, but past data is yesterday’s weather — helpful to study, terrible to worship.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection politely reminds that markets don’t care how clever this mix looks. Monte Carlo just means “we simulated a ton of alternate futures” — like rolling market dice 1,000 times and seeing how often you regret your life choices. Median outcome of $2,811 over 15 years from $1,000 is solid, and a 73.7% chance of ending positive is respectable. But that 5–95% range of $1,015 to $7,649 screams “you might barely keep up with cash, or you might crush it.” The portfolio is firmly in equity‑rollercoaster territory; the future distribution says volatility is a feature, not a bug.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is basically: stocks, stocks, and more stocks. It’s 100% equities like someone saw the word “bonds” and swiped left instantly. That’s fine if the goal is maximum long‑term oomph, but let’s not pretend this is a balanced approach. When everything you own lives in the same risk bucket, drawdowns become group activities rather than isolated incidents. Asset classes are the big levers — stocks, bonds, cash, etc. — and this portfolio has welded the lever to “risk-on.” It’s an all‑gas, no‑brakes structure that behaves amazingly in bull markets and wonderfully badly when the market decides gravity still exists.
Sectors
- Technology 25%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is “responsible adult” meets “tech fan with a side of chips addiction.” Tech at 25% is big but not insane… until you remember there’s a dedicated 5.7% semiconductor ETF hiding in there, taking that slice from “high” to “okay calm down.” Financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary are all decently represented, so it’s not a single-sector clown show. But that semi tilt means a chunk of the portfolio lives and dies by one volatile, cyclical industry that tends to move in violent waves. The mix basically says: “we’ll take market-like sector balance, then crank one of the most boom‑bust slices to ‘extra spicy’ for good measure.”
Regions
- North America 61%
- Europe Developed 14%
- Japan 7%
- Asia Developed 6%
- Asia Emerging 6%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is very “US is home base, but we grudgingly admit the rest of the world exists.” About 61% in North America with the rest scattered across developed and emerging markets is roughly in the ballpark of global market weights, which is oddly reasonable for such a tinkered-with portfolio. You’ve got Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and a bit of emerging sprinkled in, so it’s not a patriotic hostage situation. Still, the US bias means a lot of the fate here rests on one economy, one currency, and one policy regime behaving themselves. It’s globally aware, but ultimately still America‑centric at heart.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 14%
- Micro-cap 8%
The market cap breakdown shows a quiet rebellion against pure mega‑cap dominance. You’ve got 34% mega, 25% large, then a meaningful 18% mid, 14% small, and 8% micro — that’s a real tilt down the size spectrum. It’s like you started with the usual giant household names, then decided to load up on the scrappy underdogs and garage projects too. Size exposure matters because smaller companies tend to be more volatile and more sensitive to economic drama. This structure leans into that extra chaos on purpose. It’s not insane, just noticeably more “adventurous” than a straight market‑cap portfolio pretending to be sophisticated.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.54%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.72%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.40%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.83%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.78%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.65%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 15.05%
Look‑through holdings scream “I love the same ten stocks everyone else does, plus chips.” NVIDIA at 3.54% total exposure is the loudest voice in the room, and then you stack Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, TSMC, and Broadcom on top. That’s the standard mega‑cap tech‑growth crowd, just with a semiconductor megaphone courtesy of the sector ETF. Overlap is likely worse than shown since only ETF top 10s are counted, so the hidden concentration is probably higher. The portfolio pretends to be broadly diversified, but in practice a chunky slice is a bet on a very specific cluster of big, shiny, tech‑adjacent names continuing to be everyone’s favorite.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is basically a size enthusiast with a side of “I read one blog about value.” Factor exposure is like reading the ingredient label instead of trusting the marketing — value at 60% and size at 60% mean a mild lean toward cheaper, smaller companies, mostly thanks to those Avantis tilts. Everything else sits around neutral: momentum, quality, yield, low vol. Translation: the portfolio doesn’t have a clear multi-factor personality; it’s mostly “regular market, plus extra small/value dusting.” That can behave very differently from a pure cap‑weighted approach in certain markets, for better or worse, but the tilt is more “noticeable nudge” than “full‑on factor religion.”
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 39.40% 38.7% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 21.80% 19.5% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 13.94% 17.1% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 11.56% 9.8% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 5.70% 8.4% - Top 5 risk contribution 93.4%
Risk contribution exposes who’s actually driving the drama, and the usual suspects step forward. The total US market ETF alone contributes 38.67% of risk for a 39.40% weight — fair. Developed ex‑US kicks in 19.45% for 21.80% weight — also pretty tame. Then the troublemakers: US small-cap value at 13.94% weight throws in 17.11% of the total risk, and the 5.70% semiconductor slice punches way above its size with 8.38% of risk. That’s the classic “tiny position, big mood swings” profile. Top three positions driving over 75% of portfolio risk means the rest of the holdings are mostly passengers along for the volatility ride.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk/return chart, this portfolio is basically leaving free money on the table with its current mix. The Sharpe ratio — return per unit of risk, like how much joy you get per rollercoaster nausea — is 0.62, clearly below both the minimum variance option (0.71) and the max‑Sharpe setup (1.07). Even at the same risk level, it sits about 2.84 percentage points below the efficient frontier, which is the “best you could do using these same ingredients but smarter portions.” Translation: the recipe is fine, the seasoning is off. You’re taking more shakiness than needed for the payoff you’re actually getting from this blend.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.90%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.75%
Dividend-wise, the portfolio’s yield of 1.75% is a polite shrug rather than an income machine. The international and emerging pieces do some heavy lifting around 2.5–2.9%, while semis are basically “we reinvest everything, sorry” at 0.2%. Yield is just the cash you get handed while you wait, and here it’s clearly not the main event. This is a growth‑tilted, total‑return portfolio that happens to dribble out a bit of income, not something trying to fund anyone’s rent. It’s fine, just don’t pretend this setup is some silent dividend powerhouse — it’s mostly banking on price moves, not cash payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio behaves like a responsible adult. A total TER of 0.11% is impressively low, especially for a mix that includes fancy factor funds and a sector ETF. The core Vanguard funds are basically paying you in kindness, and even the pricier Avantis and VanEck slices are only modestly indulgent. Fees are like friction on a skateboard — the less, the better — and here the wheels are pretty well-oiled. If anything, the sophistication tax is surprisingly cheap for how “custom” this thing tries to be. You didn’t cheap out, but you also didn’t light money on fire for branding.
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