Momentum junkie with a value side quest and a tiny futures safety net
Report created on Aug 4, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 45.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00% -
DB iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
DBMF - US53700T8273 15.00%
This portfolio is three flavors of U.S. stocks turned up to 11 plus a small pile of managed futures duct-taped on the side. Almost 90% in equities, and all four funds are essentially different ways of betting on the same economic engine. It looks diversified at first glance, but it’s more like owning three versions of the same movie and a documentary. The futures slice is the only real misfit, but at 15% it’s more garnish than main dish. The structure screams “growth and factor bets,” not “balanced mix,” so the ride will feel very equity-driven no matter how pretty the asset list looks.
Growth
Historically this thing has ripped: $1,000 turning into $2,855 with a 16.6% CAGR is serious heat. That beats both the U.S. market and global market, which is nice, but it also came with a -31.8% faceplant in early 2020. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is just the smoothed-out pace of that rollercoaster, not a guarantee it repeats. Also, 90% of returns came from just 29 days, which means timing mattered a lot. Miss a handful of good days and the victory lap over the benchmarks suddenly looks much less impressive. Past data here is flattering, but it’s still yesterday’s weather report.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Congrats on your past, now welcome back to reality.” From $1,000, the median 15‑year outcome is only $2,633, far tamer than the backtest heroics. Monte Carlo just reruns history with randomized twists, like shuffling card decks of returns to see many possible futures. The range is wide: $1,118 on the low side to $6,582 on the high end, so this portfolio can absolutely both disappoint and surprise. The average projected return drops to 7.6% a year, which is a sobering comedown from 16.6%. Translation: the backtest was a highlight reel; the simulations look more like a full season.
Asset classes
- Stocks 89%
- Bonds 9%
- Other 2%
Asset class mix: 89% stocks, 9% bonds, 2% “other.” That’s basically saying, “I saw the word diversification and chose violence instead.” With this setup, portfolio behavior is going to be overwhelmingly equity-like, no matter how that 9% in bonds tries to pretend it matters. Asset classes are like food groups; this plate is mostly sugar and caffeine with one sad vegetable. In calm markets, that feels great, but when things crack, everything important falls with the stock side. The managed futures and bonds can help at the margin, but they’re more like aspirin than a helmet.
Sectors
- Technology 29%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector balance looks “index-ish” on paper, but the real story is the 29% tech weight layered with a dedicated momentum fund. That’s like saying you casually like spicy food while drinking hot sauce straight from the bottle. Add in financials and industrials and you’ve basically bet on the economically sensitive stuff doing a lot of heavy lifting. Sector exposure shows where the portfolio will bruise first in a downturn, and here the bruises will show up right where growth and cyclicals live. The sector mix isn’t outrageous, but combined with the factor tilts, this is not a low-drama lineup.
Regions
- North America 84%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this portfolio has a one-word worldview: “America.” With 84% in North America and essentially nothing elsewhere, it’s a patriotic echo chamber. Geography is supposed to spread out political, currency, and economic risks; here, it just confirms that everything depends on one region continuing to run the show. If the local economy stumbles or the currency swings, there isn’t much of a foreign buffer to bail things out. This isn’t “global diversification”; it’s “I’ve heard of other countries but my money hasn’t.” The managed futures provide some diversification by strategy, but not by actual regional equity exposure.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 28%
- Large-cap 26%
- No data 15%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 10%
- Small-cap 10%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The market cap spread is chaos with intention: 28% mega-cap, 26% large-cap, then a real chunk in the tiny stuff—10% small-cap and 10% micro-cap. That’s a lot of love for the ankle-biters. Market cap mix tells you how much you’re leaning into stability versus chaos. Here, the big names provide the glossy headline comfort while the small and micro caps quietly crank up volatility in the background. It’s like driving a luxury SUV with a go-kart engine bolted to the roof—fun, but not exactly smooth. When small things break, they can yank returns around more than their size suggests.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 2.97%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.93%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.87%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 0.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 25.96%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects hogging the stage: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom. The portfolio pretends it’s a clever factor structure, but under the hood it’s still very much hostage to the megacap tech royalty. NVIDIA alone at about 5% total exposure is a pretty chunky single-name dependency for a four-ETF setup. Overlap is likely worse than shown because only ETF top-10s are counted, so the concentration is probably being politely under-reported. This is the classic “I own diversified ETFs” illusion, when in reality the same handful of tech giants are just wearing different fund tickers.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, this portfolio has one clear personality trait: value at 62%, a mild but real tilt. Everything else—size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility—sits near neutral, so the backstory is “index-like with a slight value chip on its shoulder.” Factor exposure is like reading the ingredient label after ignoring the marketing—this thing is subtly biased toward cheaper stocks without fully abandoning the growth darlings. The weird twist is running a high-value tilt while also holding a momentum ETF, which is like dieting with a salad in one hand and a milkshake in the other. It can work, but it’s philosophically confused.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 45.00% 47.7% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 26.6% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.6% -
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Weight: 15.00% 3.1%
Risk contribution exposes who’s actually causing the mood swings. The S&P 500 ETF is 45% of the weight but 47.7% of risk—fine, it’s just doing its job. The small-cap value slice is 20% weight but 26.6% of risk, meaning it’s the loudest drunk at the party. Momentum is also overweight on risk at 22.6% from 20% weight. Meanwhile, the managed futures ETF is 15% weight but a measly 3.1% of risk contribution—basically sitting quietly in the corner. Top three positions driving 96.9% of risk means the “diversification” story is mostly cosmetic. One futures sleeve is not saving this if equities melt.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is leaving performance on the table in the most annoying way: it sits 1.77 percentage points below the curve at its risk level. The Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk, like miles per gallon for investing) is 0.72, while a better mix of the exact same ingredients could hit 1.0. The optimal version gets slightly higher return with lower risk, which is the investing equivalent of realizing your car could go faster while burning less fuel if you just shifted gears. Nothing new needs to be added—this is purely a “weights are kinda dumb” problem.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF 5.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.66%
A 1.66% total yield is firmly in the “nice, but don’t plan your life around it” zone. Most of the funds are not exactly showering cash—especially the momentum and S&P 500 exposures—while the managed futures ETF shows a chunky 5.2% yield that screams more about its structure than “steady income.” Dividends here are more like loose change found in the couch than a serious design feature. The portfolio is clearly built for capital growth and factor bets, not for clipping coupons. Anyone pretending this is an income machine is reading the wrong line on the factsheet.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF 0.85%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.22%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t fully sabotage itself. A 0.22% total expense ratio is decent, though not exactly rock-bottom given how much plain-vanilla beta is involved. The managed futures ETF at 0.85% is the diva in the fee lineup, while Vanguard quietly hums along at 0.03%, practically working for free. Fees are like friction—mostly invisible until you run the movie for 20 years. Here, the frictions are manageable, but paying that much for the futures sleeve is like buying expensive insurance on a small shed while the mansion goes uninsured.
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