Concentrated US stock portfolio with strong large cap focus and balanced risk and return profile
Report created on Jul 24, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 15.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00%
This portfolio is a simple three‑ETF mix, fully invested in stocks. About 70% sits in a broad US large‑cap index, 15% in a growth‑heavy Nasdaq 100 fund, and 15% in a global ex‑US fund. So most of the risk and returns come from the US market, with a modest slice from international stocks. A concentrated structure like this is easy to understand and maintain, and the broad index funds provide instant diversification inside each ETF. The clear tilt toward US equities means results are closely tied to how US large companies perform, while the smaller international sleeve adds some global balance without complicating the overall setup.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to mid‑2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to $2,270. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.32%, which is how much it grew per year on average, similar to averaging your speed over a long trip. This slightly lagged the broad US market by 0.23 percentage points per year but outpaced the global market by 1.91 points annually. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -26%, close to global markets but a bit deeper than the US benchmark. Importantly, 90% of returns came from just 27 days, showing how a small number of strong days can heavily shape long‑term results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection simulates many possible 15‑year paths using the portfolio’s historical ups and downs. Think of it as running 1,000 “what if” futures where returns vary randomly within a pattern based on the past. The median outcome grows $1,000 to about $2,859, while the middle half of scenarios (p25–p75) runs from roughly $1,797 to $4,257. The wider 5–95% band ranges from a small loss to strong growth. The average simulated annual return is 8.11%, with positive outcomes in about three‑quarters of runs. These figures are not forecasts or guarantees; they just illustrate the range of outcomes that could plausibly happen if markets behave somewhat like they have before.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% allocated to bonds, cash, or other asset classes. That creates a straightforward growth‑oriented structure where returns depend entirely on equity markets rising over time. In general, stocks offer higher long‑term return potential but can swing more sharply in the short term compared with bonds. With no stabilizing asset classes present, the portfolio’s value will tend to follow the equity cycle more directly. This 100% stock allocation is consistent with the “balanced” risk label mainly because of diversified index holdings, but the absence of bonds means drawdowns can still be meaningful during market stress.
Sectors
- Technology 39%
- Financials 11%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 39%, with the rest spread across financials, telecoms, consumer, industrials, healthcare, and smaller slices in energy, materials, utilities, and real estate. This tech‑heavy profile is common in modern equity indices but becomes more pronounced when mixing an S&P 500 fund with a Nasdaq 100 ETF. High tech exposure often means faster growth potential but also more sensitivity to interest‑rate moves, innovation cycles, and sentiment around high‑growth companies. The presence of multiple non‑tech sectors helps smooth things a bit, yet technology trends are likely to be a major driver of both gains and volatility.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, about 86% of the portfolio is in North America, with smaller allocations across developed Europe, Japan, other developed Asia, emerging Asia, and Australasia. This is more US‑tilted than a typical global equity benchmark, where the US is large but not quite this dominant. Heavy exposure to a single region concentrates economic, political, and currency risk there. The international 15% sleeve does introduce some diversification, reflecting different growth drivers, regulations, and currencies abroad. Still, overall performance will largely track US market conditions, with non‑US markets playing a supporting rather than leading role in shaping returns.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 33%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily into the largest companies: 46% in mega‑caps and 33% in large‑caps, with a smaller portion in mid‑caps and only 1% in small‑caps. Market cap simply measures a company’s size by share price times number of shares, and big firms often bring more stability and established business models. This large‑cap dominance is typical of mainstream index funds and helps reduce some idiosyncratic risk from individual smaller companies. On the flip side, limited small‑cap exposure means less participation in potential higher‑growth but more volatile parts of the market, keeping the portfolio closer to a “blue‑chip” style profile.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 5.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.17%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.14%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.74%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 31.73%
Looking through to the top holdings inside the ETFs, several big names repeat across funds, creating hidden concentration. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (both share classes), Meta, Tesla, Broadcom, and Micron together account for a meaningful slice of the portfolio despite being accessed only via ETFs. For example, NVIDIA alone sits at about 6.5%, and Apple at roughly 5.8%. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, overlap is likely understated. When the same large companies appear in multiple ETFs, their performance has an outsized effect on the portfolio, even if each ETF appears diversified when viewed on its own.
Factors
Factor exposure across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility is broadly neutral, clustering around the 50% “market average” mark. Factors are like underlying traits — such as cheap vs. expensive, large vs. small, or stable vs. volatile — that research links to long‑term returns. This portfolio doesn’t show strong tilts toward or away from any of the six measured factors, meaning it behaves much like a broad market index rather than a specialized factor strategy. A balanced factor profile like this usually leads to performance that tracks overall market conditions rather than depending on any single investing style being in favor.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 68.7% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 15.00% 19.1% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 12.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The S&P 500 ETF is 70% of the portfolio and contributes about 69% of the risk, very much in line with its size. The Nasdaq 100 ETF, at 15% weight, contributes a larger 19% of total risk, reflecting its higher volatility and growth bias. The international ETF, also 15% weight, contributes only about 12% of risk, suggesting it’s somewhat smoother or diversifying. This pattern highlights how a smaller, more volatile holding like the Nasdaq 100 can punch above its weight in shaping the portfolio’s day‑to‑day movements.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, this portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier, which is the curve showing the best possible return for each risk level using only the current holdings in different mixes. The Sharpe ratio — a measure of return per unit of risk, after accounting for a 4% risk‑free rate — is 0.7 for the current allocation, while the mathematically optimal mix reaches 0.9 with similar risk. The minimum variance version reduces risk slightly but also lowers return. Being effectively on the frontier means the existing blend is already using these three ETFs in a risk‑efficient way, without obvious gains from simple reweighting alone.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.24%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is around 1.24%, reflecting the growth‑oriented nature of the holdings. The Nasdaq 100 ETF has a very low yield (about 0.5%), the S&P 500 fund sits near 1.1%, and the international fund is higher at 2.6%. Dividends are the cash payouts companies make to shareholders, and over long horizons, they can be a meaningful part of total return, especially when reinvested. Here, most return historically has come from price growth rather than income. The somewhat higher yield on international stocks modestly boosts the overall portfolio income stream but doesn’t change the fact this is primarily a capital‑growth‑focused setup.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio (TER) around 0.05% per year across the three ETFs. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, taken directly out of returns in the background, like a small ongoing service charge. The S&P 500 and international funds are particularly cheap, and even the Nasdaq 100 ETF’s 0.15% is modest. Low fees help more of the portfolio’s gross return reach the investor, and the difference compounds over time. This cost level aligns well with best practices for index investing and forms a strong structural advantage compared with many higher‑fee active strategies.
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