Concentrated quality tilted US equity portfolio with strong recent gains but limited historical track record
Report created on Jul 28, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 43.87% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 25.56% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 18.71% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 11.86%
This portfolio is a focused mix of four US-heavy equity positions, with no bonds or cash included. A broad S&P 500 ETF makes up almost half, paired with a sizable small-cap value ETF, a concentrated single stock position in Alphabet, and a focused US momentum ETF. So the structure leans fully into growth-oriented stocks with a tilt toward quality and factor-driven strategies. Because everything is in equities and mostly in one country, the portfolio is designed for meaningful ups and downs rather than stability. With only about 1.4 years of history, any pattern seen so far may not reflect how this mix behaves over a full market cycle or through severe downturns.
Growth
Over the limited 1.4-year window, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $1,507, implying a 35.64% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths out the bumps in between. This handily beat both US and global market benchmarks, which were around 24% annualized. The max drawdown, about -14%, was similar to the benchmarks, meaning the ride down wasn’t much harsher despite stronger gains. Only 13 days generated 90% of total returns, showing results were driven by a handful of strong moves. Because this is a short and favorable period, it’s risky to treat this performance as a reliable guide to long-term behavior.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the short recent history to simulate thousands of possible 15‑year paths for this portfolio. It’s basically a “what if” engine that shakes returns around based on past ups and downs, then shows a range of possible futures. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,758, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,833 to $4,232. There’s a 74.8% share of simulations ending positive and an average simulated annual return around 8.06%. Because this model leans heavily on just 1.4 years of data—mostly a strong period—these numbers are rough illustrations rather than robust forecasts, especially for stress periods not seen in the sample.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% allocated to bonds, cash, or alternative assets. That makes the asset class mix very straightforward but also amplifies sensitivity to equity market cycles. In multi-asset portfolios, bonds or cash can sometimes act as shock absorbers when stocks fall; here, that cushion is absent by design. The upside is full participation in equity growth when markets are strong. The downside is that drawdowns are entirely driven by stock behavior, with no built‑in ballast. With only a short history available, the portfolio’s true downside behavior in a deep or prolonged bear market is still largely unknown from the data.
Sectors
- Technology 24%
- Telecommunications 24%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 6%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is spread across many areas, but there’s a clear tilt. Technology and telecommunications together account for nearly half the portfolio, with financials and industrials adding another chunk. Other sectors such as consumer discretionary, health care, and energy are present but smaller, while utilities and real estate are barely represented. Compared with broad equity benchmarks, this looks more growth and tech‑oriented, which often means higher sensitivity to innovation cycles and interest rate expectations. Tech‑heavy and communication‑heavy mixes can see sharper moves, both positive and negative, around earnings surprises and macro news. Over only 1.4 years, sector behavior has been favorable, but that may not always be the case.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, this is essentially a pure North America portfolio, with about 99% exposure there and just a sliver in developed Europe. That means results are closely tied to the US economy, policy, and currency. In global benchmarks, the US is large but not this dominant, so the portfolio is more regionally concentrated than “world market” norms. The benefit is clarity: performance largely reflects what’s happening in one major market, which has done very well recently. The trade‑off is less diversification from other regions that might behave differently at times. Given the short data period, the portfolio hasn’t been tested against a scenario where US markets significantly lag the rest of the world.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 38%
- Large-cap 20%
- Small-cap 15%
- Mid-cap 13%
- Micro-cap 13%
The mix by company size covers the full spectrum, from mega‑caps down to micro‑caps. Mega‑cap and large‑cap names together make up most of the exposure, anchored by the S&P 500 ETF and big growth stocks. At the same time, a meaningful slice sits in small‑cap and micro‑cap companies, largely via the small‑cap value ETF. Larger companies often bring more stability and liquidity, while smaller firms can be more volatile but offer sharper moves in both directions. This combination creates a blend of relative stability at the top end with added punch from smaller names. With only 1.4 years of data, the long‑term behavior of this size mix across full cycles is still uncertain.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.29%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 2.89%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.89%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.89%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.84%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.81%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 34.68%
Looking through the ETFs to their top holdings, Alphabet stands out as a major concentration. The direct Alphabet position is 18.71%, and ETF exposure adds roughly 1.43%, bringing total Alphabet exposure to about 20.14%. Other big tech names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta also appear via the ETFs but at much lower combined weights. Because only ETF top‑10s are included, overlap is likely understated—actual exposure to these giants is probably higher. This means a relatively small group of large US growth companies quietly drives a meaningful part of the portfolio. When these names move together, they can significantly sway performance, both up and down.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a very strong tilt toward quality and a moderately high tilt toward low volatility, with neutral readings for value, momentum, and yield, and a very low size factor. Factors are like investing “ingredients” such as cheapness (value), trendiness (momentum), or financial strength (quality) that research links to returns over time. A “very high” quality score means the portfolio leans heavily into companies with robust profitability and balance sheets. The “very low” size factor suggests a bias toward larger companies rather than smaller ones overall. Historically, quality and lower‑volatility tilts have often helped during market stress, but this dataset is short, so these patterns haven’t been fully tested here.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 43.87% 38.8% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 18.71% 24.9% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 25.56% 24.8% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 11.86% 11.5%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The S&P 500 ETF is 43.87% of the portfolio and contributes about 38.81% of total risk, slightly less than its weight. Alphabet, at 18.71% weight, contributes 24.92% of the risk, meaning it punches above its size with a risk/weight ratio of 1.33. The small‑cap value and momentum ETFs each contribute risk roughly in line with their weights. Overall, the top three holdings generate about 88.53% of total risk, confirming that a small core of positions dominates the portfolio’s behavior. With only 1.4 years of data, this concentration might shift in different future environments.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return optimization chart plots annualized volatility on the x‑axis and expected return on the y‑axis, with an “efficient frontier” curve showing the best trade‑offs achievable using just these holdings. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.54, while the maximum Sharpe portfolio hits 1.94 with higher risk and return, and the minimum variance portfolio shows 1.29 with slightly lower risk. The note indicates the current allocation sits on or very close to the efficient frontier, meaning, based on this short dataset, it’s using these four holdings in a risk‑return‑efficient way. Because the inputs are only 1.4 years of history, this apparent efficiency should be seen as provisional rather than a long‑term verdict.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.30%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.88%
The portfolio’s estimated dividend yield is about 0.88%, with the small‑cap value ETF and S&P 500 ETF providing most of that, and Alphabet plus the momentum ETF contributing very little. A yield under 1% suggests that most return expectations here come from price changes rather than regular cash payouts. Dividends can help smooth returns and provide a modest income stream, but in growth‑oriented portfolios like this one, capital gains usually dominate. Over just 1.4 years, dividend patterns don’t reveal much about how income might behave through different interest‑rate or profit cycles, so any assumptions about long‑term dividend stability or growth would be highly tentative.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Total ongoing costs, measured by Total Expense Ratio (TER), average about 0.08% across the ETFs, which is impressively low. TER is the annual fee charged by a fund, a bit like a small management toll that quietly reduces returns each year. Here, the core S&P 500 ETF at 0.03% and the 0.25% small‑cap value ETF combine into a very cost‑efficient structure. Lower ongoing costs mean more of the portfolio’s gross returns stay in the investor’s pocket, which compounds meaningfully over decades. Even though the historical window is short, cost advantages are one area where the benefit is straightforward and doesn’t depend on market conditions.
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