Tech tilted US equity core with modest cash buffer and historically strong growth but deep drawdowns
Report created on Sep 24, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 50.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 40.00% -
SG iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
SGOV - US46436E7186 10.00%
This portfolio is built from three ETFs: a NASDAQ 100 tracker at 50%, an S&P 500 ETF at 40%, and a short‑term Treasury bond ETF at 10%. So 90% is in US stocks and 10% in very low‑risk cash‑like bonds. Structurally, this is a concentrated but simple mix: two growth‑oriented US equity engines plus a small safety cushion in ultra‑short Treasuries. That simplicity makes it easy to understand how the portfolio behaves: most movement comes from large US stocks, with the NASDAQ side pushing growth and volatility higher. The 10% bond slice slightly dampens swings but doesn’t change the overall equity‑driven profile much.
Growth
From late 2020 to late 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,335, for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.42%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. Compared with benchmarks, performance was almost identical to the US market (just 0.20 percentage points lower) and clearly ahead of the global market by 1.88 points per year. The trade‑off was a fairly sharp max drawdown of about -28%, deeper than the US market’s -24.5%. It also needed over a year to recover, showing that strong long‑term growth came with periods of uncomfortable declines.
Projection
The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which is basically running the portfolio’s historical return and volatility patterns through 1,000 “what if” futures. Each run scrambles the order of good and bad years to show a range of possible outcomes. After 15 years, the median path turns $1,000 into about $2,600, with a broad central range of roughly $1,801 to $3,728. The full 5–95% band stretches from almost no real growth to more than seven‑fold. This highlights uncertainty: while the average simulated annual return (7.6%) is positive and most paths end higher, outcomes still vary widely, and past patterns may not repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- Cash 10%
By asset class, about 90% of this portfolio is in stocks and 10% behaves like cash via an ultra‑short Treasury bond fund. Stocks are the main growth engine over long periods, but they also drive most of the bumps along the way. The 10% Treasury slice offers liquidity and stability, because very short‑term government bonds tend to move less during equity sell‑offs. Compared with many broad “balanced” mixes that include more bonds, this portfolio leans clearly equity‑heavy. That helps explain the strong historic returns alongside notable drawdowns and makes the overall risk/return profile very tied to stock market behavior.
Sectors
- Technology 45%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Cash 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 6%
- Industrials 5%
- Financials 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector‑wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted to technology at 45%, plus another 10% in telecommunications and 9% in consumer discretionary. These are growth‑oriented areas that often benefit when innovation and digital spending are strong but can be hit harder when interest rates rise or sentiment shifts away from growth. More defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and health care are present but smaller. Compared to a typical broad US market index, this is a more tech‑centric mix. That tilt has powered returns recently but also means that sector‑specific shocks to tech and related industries can have an outsized impact on overall performance.
Regions
- North America 89%
- Cash 10%
- Europe Developed 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, about 89% of the portfolio is in North America, with the rest mostly in cash and a tiny slice in developed Europe. This alignment with the US market is very close to a pure domestic equity stance and is broadly similar to many US‑focused indices that overweight the home market. A positive here is that the portfolio matches the currency and economic environment of a US‑based investor, reducing foreign currency swings. The flip side is limited exposure to other regions’ growth and policy cycles. When the US market is strong, this can be a tailwind; if it lags other regions, diversification benefits are muted.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 13%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market capitalization exposure is dominated by the largest companies: around 46% in mega‑caps, 30% in large‑caps, and 13% in mid‑caps, with little flowing down to smaller firms. This pattern mirrors major US indices and indicates that most of the portfolio’s fate rests with very big, established companies. These firms often have more stable earnings and deeper liquidity than smaller peers, which can help moderate extreme volatility. However, it also means less direct participation in small‑cap dynamics, which historically can behave differently across cycles. Overall, the market‑cap mix is well‑aligned with mainstream benchmarks and supports a relatively mainstream equity risk profile.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 6.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.23%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.69%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.45%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.37%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.96%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Top 10 total 37.89%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through to underlying holdings, a handful of mega‑cap names stand out: NVIDIA (~7.5%), Apple (~6.8%), Microsoft (~5.2%), Amazon, Alphabet’s two share classes, Meta, Tesla, and several major chipmakers. Many of these appear in both the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 ETFs, creating overlap that boosts effective exposure even though each ETF looks diversified on its own. Because only top‑10 positions are captured, total overlap is likely understated. The key takeaway is that portfolio behavior is strongly linked to this cluster of large tech and growth companies, so their collective ups and downs can dominate overall returns.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposures, this portfolio shows a low tilt to value (34%) and size (39%), meaning it leans away from cheaper, smaller companies and more toward growth‑oriented large caps. Factor exposure is like checking which “traits” your holdings share; here, neutral scores in momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility suggest a broadly market‑like stance for those characteristics. The mild anti‑value, large‑cap orientation fits with its tech‑heavy, mega‑cap composition. Historically, growth‑tilted portfolios can shine when investors favor future earnings and low rates, but they can lag when markets rotate toward cheaper, more cyclical, or smaller companies.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 63.2% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 40.00% 36.8% -
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Weight: 10.00% 0.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The NASDAQ 100 ETF is 50% of the portfolio but contributes about 63% of total risk, meaning it punches above its weight in volatility. The S&P 500 ETF, at 40% weight and roughly 37% risk contribution, is closer to one‑for‑one. The ultra‑short Treasury ETF, despite being 10% of the portfolio, adds essentially no measurable risk. This pattern underlines that most volatility comes from the NASDAQ sleeve, reflecting its tech concentration and growth tilt, while the bond slice mainly serves as a stabilizer.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows the current portfolio sitting on or very close to the efficient frontier, meaning that, for its mix of holdings, the weights are already making good use of risk taken. The Sharpe ratio, which compares excess return over a risk‑free rate to volatility, is 0.68 for the current allocation. The optimal mix using the same ETFs could reach a higher Sharpe of 0.91 with slightly lower risk and similar return, suggesting some theoretical improvement via reweighting. Still, being near the frontier is a positive sign that the existing structure is broadly efficient for this particular set of funds.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.30%
- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 3.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.92%
The overall dividend yield is about 0.92%, which is modest and reflects the growth‑tilted equity mix. The NASDAQ 100 ETF yields around 0.30%, the S&P 500 ETF about 1.00%, and the short‑term Treasury bond ETF roughly 3.70%. Dividends and interest can act like a steady drip of cash, but here they play a relatively small role compared with price movements. Most of the portfolio’s total return historically has come from capital gains rather than income. That’s typical for tech‑heavy and large‑cap growth exposures, where companies often reinvest profits into expansion instead of paying out high dividends.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 0.07%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Total ongoing costs, measured by the weighted average Total Expense Ratio (TER), are around 0.09% per year. That’s impressively low and compares favorably with many actively managed strategies that can charge several times more. TER is like a small annual “membership fee” that gets quietly deducted; even tiny differences add up over decades. In this case, using low‑cost index ETFs helps keep more of the portfolio’s gross return in the investor’s pocket. Combined with the portfolio’s simple structure and benchmark‑like components, the cost profile is a real strength and supports better long‑term compounding.
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