Concentrated US value and dividend stock portfolio with strong past returns and noticeable single stock risk
Report created on Apr 30, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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CF Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
CFG - US1746101054 34.47% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 20.23% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 14.25% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 8.97% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 6.78% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 5.71% -
NL VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF
NLR - US92189F6016 4.13% -
ET Energy Transfer LP
ET - US29273V1008 3.31% -
O Realty Income Corporation
O - US7561091049 2.15%
This portfolio is made up entirely of stocks, with a heavy tilt toward a single position in Citizens Financial Group at about a third of the total. The rest is spread across broad US and international index ETFs, a dividend ETF, a momentum ETF, a uranium and nuclear energy ETF, plus a few individual stocks like NVIDIA, Energy Transfer, and Realty Income. Having 100% in equities means full exposure to stock market ups and downs, without the stabilizing effect of bonds or cash. The clear highlight is concentration: the top three holdings drive most of the portfolio’s behavior, which can amplify both gains and losses relative to a more evenly spread mix.
Growth
Historically, this portfolio has delivered extremely strong growth, turning $1,000 into $16,514, which corresponds to a 38.29% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). CAGR is like the average yearly “speed” of growth over the whole period. That’s far above both the US market (17.41%) and the global market (14.24%). The trade-off is a deeper max drawdown of -43.64%, meaning the portfolio once fell that much from peak to trough before recovering. It’s also notable that 90% of returns came from just 47 days, showing results were driven by a small number of very strong moves, which is typical of concentrated, aggressive equity portfolios.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which essentially runs 1,000 “what if” scenarios based on past patterns of returns and volatility. It takes the historical risk/return profile and scrambles it in many random paths to estimate a range of future outcomes. The median projection grows $1,000 to about $2,676 over 15 years, with a wide possible range from roughly flat to very strong growth. This spread shows that, even using the same starting data, future paths can vary a lot. It’s important to remember that simulations are not predictions; they just illustrate how uncertain long‑term outcomes can be when markets move unpredictably.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is invested in equities, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. From an asset class perspective, this means there’s no built‑in cushion from traditionally steadier assets that often soften the blow during market downturns. Equity‑only portfolios generally have higher long‑term return potential but also sharper swings along the way. Compared with a typical broad market investor who might hold some bonds, this structure leans more toward growth and volatility. The absence of other asset classes simplifies the portfolio, but it also means overall risk is tightly linked to how global stock markets behave over time.
Sectors
- Financials 41%
- Technology 19%
- Energy 9%
- Industrials 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Real Estate 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, financials dominate at 41%, mainly due to the large Citizens position, while technology sits around 19%. The rest is spread across energy, industrials, health care, consumer staples and discretionary, telecom, real estate, utilities, and basic materials in smaller slices. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this is a noticeable overweight to financials and a relative underweight to some growth-heavy areas. A financials-heavy portfolio can be more sensitive to interest rates, credit cycles, and banking-sector news. On the positive side, the exposure across many other sectors through ETFs adds some diversification, reducing the portfolio’s dependence on just one type of business model.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Japan 1%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio is in North America, with limited exposure to Europe, Asia, Japan, and Australasia. That makes this a strongly US‑centric equity portfolio, which has historically been a tailwind over the last decade as US markets outperformed many others. However, it also ties most of the portfolio’s fate to one region’s economy, policy decisions, and currency. Global benchmarks typically give a larger share to non‑US markets, so this allocation is more concentrated than a “world market” mix. The smaller positions in developed and emerging markets still provide some international diversification, but they don’t dominate the overall risk profile.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 65%
- Mega-cap 21%
- Mid-cap 10%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans toward larger companies, with mega‑cap and large‑cap positions making up the bulk. Mid‑caps, small‑caps, and micro‑caps together form a relatively small slice. Market cap describes a company’s size, and bigger firms often have more established businesses and deeper trading liquidity, which can sometimes mean more stability than tiny companies. This allocation is broadly consistent with how many broad equity indices look, where large and mega‑caps dominate. The modest exposure to smaller companies adds some potential for higher growth and volatility on the margin, but overall, size risk appears reasonably aligned with typical market-weighted portfolios.
True holdings
-
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
-
-
AA Apple Inc 1.20%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.88%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 0.80%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.70%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 53.05%
The look‑through view shows that Citizens alone accounts for 34.47% and is only held directly, not via ETFs. NVIDIA appears both directly and inside ETFs, bringing its total exposure to 7.64%, which creates some hidden concentration in that single stock. Other big global names like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom appear through ETFs but at low single‑percent levels. Because ETF data here only covers their top 10 holdings, actual overlap is likely somewhat higher than shown, but not radically so. The main takeaway is that single‑stock risk is dominated by Citizens and, to a lesser extent, NVIDIA, while the rest of the portfolio is broadly diversified through index funds.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure highlights a high tilt to value and yield, with value at 72% and yield at 62%, both above a neutral 50% market baseline. Factors are like the “ingredients” that drive returns — value focuses on cheaper stocks relative to fundamentals, and yield focuses on higher dividend payers. This combination often behaves differently from high‑growth or momentum‑driven portfolios, sometimes doing better when investors favor income and reasonably priced companies over rapid growth. The other factors — size, momentum, quality, and low volatility — sit near neutral, suggesting no major lean there. Overall, the profile lines up well with a value‑and‑income‑oriented equity style.
Risk contribution
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Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
Weight: 34.47% 53.2% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.23% 14.3% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 14.25% 8.9% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 5.71% 7.2% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 8.97% 5.3% - Top 5 risk contribution 89.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Citizens, at 34.47% of assets, contributes a hefty 53.23% of total portfolio risk; its risk/weight ratio of 1.54 signals that it’s more volatile and influential than its size alone suggests. The top three holdings together account for over 76% of total risk, even though they are less than 70% of the weight. In contrast, broad index ETFs like Vanguard Total Stock Market and Schwab US Dividend Equity carry lower risk relative to their weight. This pattern underlines that a few positions dominate the risk picture.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.78, compared with 1.43 for the optimal mix using the same holdings, and 0.77 for the minimum‑variance option. The Sharpe ratio measures risk‑adjusted return, like how much return you get for each unit of volatility after accounting for a risk‑free rate. The current portfolio sits about 11.67 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning there are other weightings of these same positions that would have offered better risk/return historically. The good news is that the minimum‑variance mix has a similar Sharpe, so the existing structure isn’t wildly inefficient, just not fully optimized.
Dividends
- Citizens Financial Group, Inc. 2.70%
- Energy Transfer LP 6.70%
- VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF 2.30%
- Realty Income Corporation 5.10%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.37%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is 2.37%, which is fairly solid for a stock‑only mix and clearly shaped by holdings like Energy Transfer (6.70%) and Realty Income (5.10%), plus the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF at 3.40%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the current price, and it can be a meaningful part of total return over time, especially when reinvested. Some growth‑oriented holdings, like the momentum ETF and broad US index ETF, pay lower yields but contribute capital growth potential. Altogether, the yield profile lines up well with the factor data showing a tilt toward income‑producing stocks.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF 0.61%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
On costs, the portfolio is very efficient overall, with a weighted Total Expense Ratio (TER) of about 0.05%. TER is the annual fee charged by each ETF, expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. Most of the core ETFs here are extremely low‑cost, in the 0.03%–0.06% range, which is in line with or better than many large index funds. The main outlier is the VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF at 0.61%, but it’s a small portion of the portfolio, so its impact on total costs is limited. Low ongoing fees like this help more of the portfolio’s gross returns stay in the investor’s pocket over time.
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