Momentum driven growth portfolio with strong technology tilt and concentrated sources of equity risk
Report created on Aug 17, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 30.00% -
VF VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF
VFLO - US92647X8305 20.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 15.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
ER Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares
ERX - US25460G6098 5.00% -
PI iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF
PICK - US46434G8481 5.00% -
SB ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF
SBIO - US00162Q5936 5.00%
This portfolio is a pure equity mix made up entirely of eight ETFs, with no bonds or cash components. The structure leans heavily on a large S&P 500 momentum fund at 30% and a free cash flow-focused ETF at 20%, so half the portfolio sits in broad US factor strategies. The rest is split across more targeted themes: semiconductors, global metals and mining, energy with 2x leverage, medical breakthroughs, and US and international small-cap value. This mix creates a growth-oriented profile with multiple “satellite” exposures around a momentum core. A setup like this can deliver strong upside when risk assets do well, but without stabilizers like bonds or cash, the portfolio’s value will tend to move more sharply in both directions.
Growth
Over the period from mid‑2023 to mid‑2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,527, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.41%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths out the bumps to show how fast money grew per year. This easily beat both the US market (21.60%) and global market (20.56%) over the same time. The max drawdown of about ‑21% shows the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, which is a bit steeper than the benchmarks. The portfolio bounced back from that drop within a few months, highlighting both its upside power and its tendency to experience sharper swings during rough patches.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the historical behavior of the portfolio to simulate many possible future paths over 15 years. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate timelines where returns and volatility randomly follow patterns similar to the past. The median outcome shows $1,000 growing to about $2,776, which corresponds to an annualized return of 8.3% across all simulations. The range is wide: in 90% of simulations, the ending value lands between roughly $1,094 and $7,848, reflecting the uncertainty around future markets. About 74% of paths end positive. These numbers are not predictions, just illustrations of what could happen if similar return and risk patterns repeat, which is never guaranteed.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in stocks, with 100% allocated to equities and 0% to bonds, cash, or alternatives. Equities historically offer higher long‑term return potential than lower‑risk assets, but they also typically come with bigger short‑term drawdowns. Many broad “market” benchmarks mix in some lower‑risk assets or at least include more defensive equity segments; this portfolio leans fully into growth and risk assets. In practical terms, that means portfolio value is highly sensitive to equity market cycles: when global stocks climb, the benefit is direct; when they fall sharply, there’s no built‑in cushion from more stable asset classes to soften the ride.
Sectors
- Technology 41%
- Health Care 12%
- Energy 10%
- Basic Materials 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Financials 6%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 41%, with health care the next largest at 12%. Energy and basic materials together add about 19%, reflecting the specific metals/mining and leveraged energy ETFs. Other sectors like industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials have modest shares, while defensive areas such as consumer staples, utilities, and real estate are small. This pattern creates a growth‑ and innovation‑oriented profile with added cyclicality from commodities and energy. Tech‑heavy portfolios often benefit when innovation themes and growth stocks lead, but can be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when markets rotate toward more defensive, steady‑earning companies.
Regions
- North America 85%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Japan 4%
- Australasia 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Asia Emerging 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is strongly anchored in North America at 85%, with limited exposure to Europe developed (6%), Japan (4%), and smaller allocations to other regions. Global equity benchmarks often have a noticeably lower US share, so this is a clear home‑country tilt. A North America focus has been rewarding recently, particularly thanks to large US growth and tech names. At the same time, tying most of the portfolio to one region means economic, policy, and currency developments there have an outsized influence. The international small‑cap value ETF does introduce some diversification, but the overall structure still leans heavily on the fortunes of North American markets.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 28%
- Mega-cap 20%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 8%
The portfolio is spread across the market cap spectrum: about 20% in mega‑caps, 30% in large‑caps, 28% in mid‑caps, 12% in small‑caps, and 8% in micro‑caps. Compared with broad indices that are usually dominated by mega‑ and large‑caps, this is a more balanced and size‑diverse mix. Smaller companies often have higher growth potential and more company‑specific risk, which can increase volatility. Larger firms tend to be more stable and widely followed. By having meaningful allocations to mid, small, and micro‑caps, the portfolio taps into a wider set of growth drivers, while also accepting the bumpier ride that can come from less mature or more niche businesses.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.64%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.73%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
SN Sandisk Corp 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
DE Dell Technologies Inc 1.25%
Part of fund(s):- VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 22.25%
Looking through to the top holdings of the ETFs, several companies appear as meaningful underlying exposures even though they’re only partially visible due to limited coverage. NVIDIA, Micron, and Broadcom together already account for over 12% of the portfolio when summing their indirect positions. Other tech names like Lam Research, AMD, and Alphabet also show up. This illustrates how multiple funds can independently own the same leaders, creating hidden concentration. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are included, actual overlap is likely higher. In practice, that means the portfolio’s performance is more tied to a tight group of large growth and semiconductor names than the number of ETFs alone might suggest.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures are broadly neutral across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, all sitting near the 50% “market‑like” level. Factor investing looks at characteristics like cheapness (value) or recent performance (momentum) that research has linked to returns. In this case, despite the thematic tilts in sectors and regions, the overall blend of ETFs ends up fairly balanced on these academic factors. That means the portfolio’s distinctiveness comes more from its sector and geography choices than from strong factor tilts. In different market environments, it’s likely to behave somewhat like a growth‑oriented global equity basket rather than heavily favoring any single style such as deep value or high momentum.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 30.00% 30.5% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 15.00% 27.0% -
VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF
Weight: 20.00% 12.9% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.5% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 6.4% - Top 5 risk contribution 85.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 momentum ETF is 30% of the portfolio and contributes about 30.45% of risk, so its impact is roughly proportional. The semiconductor ETF, at 15% weight, contributes a striking 27% of total risk, with a risk‑to‑weight ratio of 1.8, reflecting its volatility and sensitivity to market swings. By contrast, the free cash flow, small‑cap value, and international small‑cap ETFs contribute less risk than their weights might suggest. The top three holdings together drive over 70% of portfolio risk, indicating that while there are eight funds, risk is still quite concentrated.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current portfolio sitting below the efficient frontier by about 2.21 percentage points at its current risk level. The efficient frontier is the curve of “best possible” return for each risk level, using only these existing holdings in different weights. Sharpe ratio, which compares excess return to volatility, is 1.48 for the current mix versus 1.89 for the optimal portfolio and 1.8 for the minimum variance option. That means, historically, another combination of the same ETFs could have offered similar or better returns with less volatility. The current allocation is clearly return‑rich, but not squeezing the maximum risk‑adjusted benefit out of the holdings already in use.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.60%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares 1.40%
- iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF 2.10%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.01%
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is about 1.01%, which is modest compared with many broad equity indices. Individual funds like the international small‑cap value ETF (2.6%) and global metals & mining ETF (2.1%) provide higher income, but large portions in momentum, semiconductors, and medical breakthroughs naturally pull the average down. Dividends can serve as a steady cash stream and a meaningful part of total return over time, especially in flatter markets. Here, total return is likely to be driven more by price appreciation than by income, reflecting the portfolio’s orientation toward growth, innovation, and cyclic themes rather than high‑payout, mature companies.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares 0.93%
- iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF 0.39%
- ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF 0.50%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- VictoryShares Free Cash Flow ETF 0.39%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.30%
The weighted average ongoing cost (TER) of the portfolio is about 0.30% per year, which is quite reasonable for a mix that includes specialized and factor ETFs. Some building blocks are very low‑cost, like the S&P 500 momentum ETF at 0.13%, while more niche or leveraged funds charge higher fees—up to 0.93% for the 2x energy ETF and around 0.50% for medical breakthroughs. Costs matter because they come off returns every year, and the effect compounds over time. Here, the overall fee level is impressively contained given the thematic exposures involved, which supports better long‑term performance potential than a similar portfolio with significantly higher ongoing charges.
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