Concentrated US equity portfolio with strong quality tilt and higher volatility than its broad benchmarks (Weights normalized from 100.1% to 100%)
Report created on Sep 19, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 61.64% -
FI First Trust Water ETF
FIW - US33733B1008 10.39% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 8.49% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 6.39% -
LL Eli Lilly and Company
LLY - US5324571083 4.40% -
AM Amazon.com Inc
AMZN - US0231351067 3.90% -
NF Netflix Inc
NFLX - US64110L1061 3.10% -
RD Reddit, Inc.
RDDT - US75734B1008 1.70%
This portfolio is made up entirely of equities, split between three broad ETFs and five individual US stocks. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF dominates at about three-fifths of the total, providing a broad market base. Around one-fifth is in two themed or style ETFs, and the rest is in a small set of well-known large-cap growth names. This kind of structure combines a core diversified fund with targeted satellite positions. That setup can make the portfolio’s overall behavior look similar to the broad market most of the time, but with noticeable differences during sharp rallies or selloffs because the concentrated stock picks can move quite differently from the index.
Growth
Over the period shown, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $1,561, which is strong performance. The portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 19.5% slightly beats both the US and global equity benchmarks. CAGR is like the average yearly “cruise speed” over the whole trip, smoothing out bumps. The max drawdown of around -21% was a bit deeper than the benchmarks, and it took a few months to recover. That pattern — slightly higher returns with somewhat larger drops — is typical of a concentrated equity portfolio. Only 16 days made up 90% of returns, showing how a small handful of big days really drove the outcome. As always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many simulations of future paths based on past volatility and returns to map a range of possible 15‑year outcomes. It’s a bit like running the same race 1,000 times with different weather each time. The median path ends near $2,799 from $1,000, with a wide “likely” band between about $1,776 and $4,210. The very wide full range — roughly $984 to $7,868 — highlights how uncertain long‑term equity outcomes can be, even with a positive average return near 8.2% a year. These numbers aren’t forecasts or promises; they just show what could happen if future conditions rhymed with history in terms of risk and return patterns.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no bonds, cash instruments, or alternative assets shown. That makes the asset-class picture very simple: there is equity risk all the way down. Equities tend to offer higher expected long‑term returns than bonds or cash, but they also come with bigger swings and deeper drawdowns along the way. Because there are no other asset classes here, there is no built‑in cushion from historically steadier assets during equity selloffs. This is very different from a multi‑asset mix where bonds or cash can dampen volatility and sometimes rise when stocks fall, softening the overall ride.
Sectors
- Technology 26%
- Telecommunications 18%
- Health Care 13%
- Industrials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Financials 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans heavily into growth-oriented areas, with technology and telecommunications making up a large share and healthcare also significant. Defensive or traditionally steadier sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and real estate are relatively small. Compared with broad global or US benchmarks, this looks more tilted toward innovation and growth and less toward classic “safety” pockets. When growth sectors are leading, that tilt can be a tailwind for returns. During periods of rising interest rates or when investors rotate into more cyclical or value-focused areas, this kind of sector mix can experience sharper swings and larger relative drawdowns.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% North America, specifically the US market. That’s very different from a world index, where the US is large but not the entire picture. This full US focus means everything is tied to one economy, one political system, and one currency. The benefit is simplicity and exposure to many globally competitive companies that happen to be listed in the US. The flip side is that regional risks — such as US-specific regulation, tax changes, or economic slowdowns — are not balanced by holdings in other regions that might behave differently. The geographic concentration aligns with many US-based portfolios but leaves limited international diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 29%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, almost half the portfolio sits in mega-cap names, with another large slice in traditional large caps. Mid, small, and micro caps together make up only about a quarter. This mirrors a typical cap-weighted index, where the biggest companies dominate. Large and mega caps often bring more stable earnings and deeper trading liquidity than smaller firms, which can reduce idiosyncratic company-specific risk. However, the relatively modest exposure to smaller companies means less participation in periods when small- and mid-caps strongly outperform larger peers. Overall, this size distribution is broadly consistent with mainstream equity benchmarks and helps keep single-name volatility somewhat contained.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
-
AA Apple Inc. 4.34%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.51%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
-
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 39.64%
The look‑through view shows that a few big companies account for a notable share of underlying exposure. Alphabet and Amazon are good examples: they appear both as direct holdings and inside ETFs, bringing their total weights higher than they look at first glance. Alphabet Class A reaches over 8%, and Amazon exceeds 6% when ETF exposure is added. There is also meaningful indirect exposure to NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom through the ETFs. Because ETF holdings beyond the top 10 aren’t fully captured, this overlap is likely understated. Hidden concentration like this can make the portfolio more sensitive to a handful of mega‑cap stocks than the surface weights suggest.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure highlights a very strong tilt toward quality and a high tilt toward momentum, with very low size exposure. Think of factors as traits that explain how stocks behave — a bit like personality types. A very high quality score suggests companies with strong balance sheets and profitability, which historically have held up better in downturns and delivered more stable earnings. The high momentum tilt means the holdings tend to be recent winners, which can help in trending markets but may be vulnerable when trends reverse sharply. Very low size exposure points to a bias away from smaller companies. Overall, this combination often behaves like a concentrated, large-cap growth-and-quality style portfolio.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 61.64% 61.1% -
First Trust Water ETF
Weight: 10.39% 8.6% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 6.39% 8.5% -
Amazon.com Inc
Weight: 3.90% 5.9% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 8.49% 4.8% - Top 5 risk contribution 88.9%
Risk contribution data shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 ETF is about 62% of the portfolio and contributes roughly the same share of risk, so it’s the main driver. Alphabet and Amazon punch above their weights, with risk contributions notably higher than their allocations — that’s typical of individual growth stocks with higher volatility. The top three holdings together account for over 78% of total risk, signaling meaningful concentration. Meanwhile, the dividend-focused ETF has a lower risk share than its weight, behaving more defensively. This pattern underscores how a few positions largely set the portfolio’s overall risk profile.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix with the best possible combinations of these same holdings. The Sharpe ratio — a measure of return per unit of risk — is about 1.01 for the current portfolio, while the optimal mix of the same positions reaches around 1.64. The portfolio also sits roughly 6 percentage points below the frontier at its current risk level, meaning it’s not using these ingredients as efficiently as possible from a risk/return standpoint. The minimum-variance portfolio on the chart shows a lower-risk option using only these holdings. This doesn’t say anything about what should be done; it just illustrates that alternative weightings could, in theory, improve the tradeoff between volatility and expected return.
Dividends
- First Trust Water ETF 0.70%
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
- Eli Lilly and Company 0.60%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.10%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.99%
The overall dividend yield is just under 1%, which is modest for an all-stock portfolio. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF is the main income contributor, with a yield above 3%, while the broad S&P 500 ETF sits around 1%. Several of the individual growth names either don’t pay dividends or pay very little, so most of their potential return comes from price changes instead of cash payments. Dividend yield matters most to investors who want regular income, while total return combines both price and income. Here, the structure is more geared toward capital growth, with dividends playing a smaller supporting role rather than being a central feature.
Ongoing product costs
- First Trust Water ETF 0.53%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
The total expense ratio (TER) for the ETF portion lands around 0.08%, which is impressively low. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, taken directly out of returns, similar to a small ongoing service charge. The broad S&P 500 ETF is especially cheap at 0.03%, and the dividend ETF is also low-cost. The water-focused ETF is more expensive at 0.53%, reflecting its more specialized strategy, but its smaller weight keeps the overall portfolio cost modest. Low ongoing fees are a quiet advantage: they don’t guarantee higher returns, but they reduce the drag over time, which can add up meaningfully across many years of compounding.
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