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A growth tilted US heavy stock portfolio with strong returns and concentrated tech and single stock risk

Report created on Aug 2, 2024

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

The structure here is very growth-focused: six broad equity ETFs at roughly equal weights and a 10% single-stock tilt. This creates a 100% stock portfolio with no bonds or cash buffer, which fits a growth label but raises short-term volatility. Compared with a typical balanced benchmark that mixes stocks and bonds, this mix is much more aggressive. The overlap between the large US ETFs means many of the same holdings are repeated. Trimming duplicate exposures and deciding whether that 10% single stock tilt is intentional could simplify the setup and make the risk profile clearer without necessarily changing your overall growth orientation.

Growth Info

Historically, this mix has been very powerful: a 27.25% CAGR means $10,000 growing to roughly $34,000 in five years. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like average speed on a long road trip: it smooths the ups and downs into one yearly number. The catch is the -65% max drawdown, which means at one point the portfolio could have fallen from $100,000 to $35,000 on paper. That’s a serious gut check. This history shows the combo of strong upside and big swings. It may help to ask whether you could emotionally and financially handle another 50–60% drop while staying invested.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis uses many random “what if” paths based on past behavior to see a range of future outcomes. Here, 1,000 simulations suggest a wide spread: a rough 5th percentile near -80% and a median near +800%, which is huge. The average simulated return over time is 36.16%, but that’s based on historical patterns that may not repeat. Monte Carlo isn’t a prediction; it’s more like a weather model showing possible storms and sunny stretches. Treat these numbers as a way to understand risk extremes and not as a promise. Align your plan assuming less rosy outcomes than the median.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All-in on stocks (100% equities) with zero bonds or cash means this portfolio is built for growth, not stability. Compared to common benchmarks that hold some bonds or cash, this setup will usually swing harder in both directions. In good markets, that can be rewarding; in bear markets, it can feel brutal. Stocks historically outperform over long horizons, but the journey can be rough. One way to make this more manageable over time is to consider whether a small allocation to stabilizing assets fits your situation, especially as major goals get closer. Keeping even a modest buffer can reduce the impact of forced selling in downturns.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    35%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    21%
  • Telecommunications
    10%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Financials
    8%
  • Industrials
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    4%
  • Basic Materials
    1%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is clearly tilted: heavy technology and consumer cyclicals, with meaningful communication services, and smaller slices elsewhere. This is quite similar to many major US growth benchmarks, so it does align with modern market composition, which is a positive for staying close to broad trends. The tech and growth tilt also explains the strong historical returns. The flip side: tech and cyclical areas can be hit hard when interest rates rise or economic growth slows. If that volatility feels too intense, one possible adjustment is gently increasing exposure to steadier areas over time, rather than trying to time in and out of the growthier parts.

Regions Info

  • North America
    94%
  • Europe Developed
    2%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Japan
    1%
  • Asia Developed
    1%

Geographically, this portfolio is overwhelmingly US-focused, with about 94% in North America and only a small slice abroad. Many global benchmarks have more non-US exposure, so this is a clear home-country tilt. That alignment with the US market has been beneficial in the last decade, since US stocks outperformed many peers. The risk is that if the US underperforms other regions in a future cycle, the portfolio might lag a more globally spread approach. Gradually nudging the non-US share higher—using broad, diversified funds you already hold—can add an extra layer of diversification without changing the overall equity-heavy style.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    41%
  • Large-cap
    31%
  • Mid-cap
    25%
  • Small-cap
    2%

Market cap exposure is mostly mega and large companies, with a modest 25% in mid caps and only a sliver of small caps. This is typical of many broad US and global funds, so the structure here is well-aligned with common benchmarks, which is a plus. Large companies tend to be more stable and liquid, while smaller firms can be more volatile but sometimes higher growth. Since you already have strong growth exposure through big tech and large-cap growth funds, adding too much extra small-cap risk may not be necessary. If a tilt is desired, keeping it modest can avoid overcomplicating the risk picture.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
    Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
    Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    High correlation

Most of the ETFs here are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move in the same direction at the same time. Correlation is basically how similarly two investments behave; when everything moves together, you don’t get much shock-absorbing benefit. Your US large-growth and broad-market funds share many of the same underlying holdings, so they mostly rise and fall in unison. This isn’t “bad,” but it limits diversification. One practical move is to streamline overlapping funds and decide which single broad or growth-oriented core you really want, then use the freed-up space for truly different exposures or simply to keep things cleaner and easier to manage.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

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In risk–return terms, this portfolio likely sits above average risk with historically strong returns, but it’s not fully “efficient” because of overlapping funds and a concentrated single-stock position. The Efficient Frontier is the curve showing the best possible risk–return trade-offs using only the assets you already hold, by changing just the weights. Efficiency here doesn’t mean safest or most diversified overall; it means getting the most expected return for each unit of risk. Cleaning up highly correlated overlap and revisiting how much single-stock risk you truly want could move you closer to that frontier while keeping the same general growth-first philosophy.

Dividends Info

  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.80%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 1.70%
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.18%

The overall yield around 1.18% is modest, which is normal for a growth-tilted equity portfolio. One standout is the dedicated dividend ETF with a higher yield, which helps lift the income a bit and is well-aligned with an income-plus-growth approach. Dividends can provide a small cushion during flat or slightly down markets, but they won’t fully offset stock volatility. If income is a secondary goal, this setup is reasonable; it leans on capital growth with a touch of cash flow. If income ever becomes a bigger focus, slowly raising the share of income-oriented holdings could help without abandoning the growth objective entirely.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.07%
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%

Total annual costs around 0.06% are impressively low. That’s a real strength of this portfolio and aligns extremely well with best practices and index-oriented benchmarks. Fees are like friction on your investment engine; the less friction, the more of your returns you keep. Over long periods, even small fee differences compound into meaningful dollar amounts. Since the core building blocks are already very low-cost, there’s little pressure to tinker here. The main thing is simply to avoid adding higher-fee products on top of this structure unless they serve a very specific, well-thought-out purpose that justifies the added expense.

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