Your portfolio is well-structured with a 100% allocation to stocks, distributed across five ETFs that target different aspects of the market. This approach leans heavily on US equities, particularly in the technology sector, while also incorporating a global perspective through the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. The equal weighting across these ETFs simplifies the portfolio management but may lead to overlapping holdings, especially among the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-focused ETFs.
Historically, your portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.88%, with a maximum drawdown of -26.15%. This performance suggests a strong upward trend, albeit with significant volatility. The days contributing most to returns indicate that gains have been concentrated in relatively few, potentially high-impact trading days. This underscores the importance of staying invested through market cycles to capture these critical periods of growth.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast a range of possible future outcomes, suggest a wide range of potential portfolio values. With 996 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the projections are overwhelmingly optimistic. However, it's crucial to remember that these simulations have limitations and cannot predict unexpected market shifts or black swan events.
Your portfolio is entirely invested in stocks, reflecting a high-risk, high-reward strategy. While this has historically resulted in strong returns, it also exposes you to significant market volatility. Diversifying across different asset classes, such as bonds or real estate, could provide a buffer during stock market downturns.
The technology sector dominates your portfolio at 38%, followed by financial services and communication services. This sector concentration enhances growth potential but also increases susceptibility to sector-specific risks. Diversifying across a broader range of sectors could mitigate this risk while still offering attractive growth opportunities.
With 92% of assets allocated to North America, your portfolio has a strong home bias. While this focus has likely benefited from the robust performance of US markets, it also limits exposure to potential growth in other regions. Increasing allocations to developed and emerging markets outside the US could enhance diversification and reduce geographic risk.
The majority of your portfolio is allocated to mega and large-cap stocks, which are typically less volatile than smaller companies. However, this focus may limit exposure to the higher growth potential of mid and small-cap stocks. Adjusting the balance to include more medium-sized companies could introduce more growth opportunities, albeit with increased risk.
The high correlation among the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, and Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares suggests redundancy. Reducing overlap by reallocating funds from highly correlated assets to those with lower correlations could improve diversification and potentially enhance risk-adjusted returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing your portfolio along the Efficient Frontier could improve the risk-return profile. Currently, the high correlation among certain ETFs suggests an opportunity to enhance diversification without necessarily sacrificing returns. Consider rebalancing to include assets with lower correlations or different risk-return characteristics.
Your portfolio's average dividend yield of 1.06% contributes to total returns, offering a modest income stream in addition to capital appreciation. While not the primary focus, dividends can provide a steady cash flow, which can be reinvested to compound growth or used as income, depending on your financial goals.
The overall expense ratio of 0.08% is impressively low, which supports better long-term performance by minimizing the drag on returns. Keeping costs low is a crucial component of successful investing, and your portfolio exemplifies this principle well.
Select a broker that fits your needs and watch for low fees to maximize your returns.
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