Growth focused portfolio with strong technology tilt and historically high returns but concentrated risk
Report created on Apr 22, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 30.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 30.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
XM Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
XMMO - US46137V4648 10.00%
This portfolio is fully invested in equities through five ETFs, with no bonds or cash included in the mix. Three core positions stand out: two broad US funds split evenly between dividend payers and large‑cap growth, plus a sizable dedicated semiconductor ETF. Smaller allocations go to international small‑cap value and US mid‑cap momentum. So structurally, it combines growth, income, and a couple of more specialized “satellite” funds. A 100% stock allocation means the portfolio is built to capture equity market upside but will also fully experience stock market downturns. The mix of broad and focused funds creates both diversification and pockets of concentration, especially where themes like semiconductors dominate a single holding.
Growth
From late 2019 to April 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,716, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.24%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This growth meaningfully outpaced both the US market (15.73% CAGR) and the global market (13.33% CAGR) over the same period. The worst drawdown, or peak‑to‑trough drop, was around -33%, very similar to the benchmarks during the COVID shock. That combination—higher return with comparable maximum drawdown—shows the portfolio has historically taken equity‑like risk but used its sector and style tilts to amplify upside in a favorable environment, especially for growth and technology.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection models many possible futures using the portfolio’s past behavior as a guide, like running 1,000 alternate timelines. Here, a $1,000 investment over 15 years has a median simulated outcome of about $2,866, with a “likely” middle range from roughly $1,856 to $4,315. Monte Carlo doesn’t predict a single number; it shows a spread of potential paths based on volatility and returns seen historically. About three‑quarters of simulations end positive, and the average simulated annual return is 8.24%. It’s important to note that this method assumes the future will rhyme with the past, which may not hold if markets or the portfolio’s structure change meaningfully over time.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, real assets, or cash. That creates a clean profile: performance is driven entirely by the equity markets and company fundamentals rather than interest rates on fixed income. A 100% equity structure often experiences larger swings than mixed stock‑and‑bond portfolios, especially during sharp market drops. On the positive side, there is exposure to different types of equities: US dividend payers, US large‑cap growth, mid‑cap momentum, semiconductors, and international small‑cap value. So while asset classes are not diversified beyond equities, there is some diversification within equities across styles, sizes, and regions.
Sectors
- Technology 40%
- Industrials 11%
- Health Care 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Energy 7%
- Consumer Staples 7%
- Financials 7%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, this portfolio has a clear technology tilt, with tech making up about 40% of the equity exposure—well above many broad market benchmarks. Other sectors like industrials, health care, consumer areas, energy, and financials are all present but in much smaller and relatively balanced slices. A tech‑heavy allocation often benefits when innovation‑driven companies and digital trends are in favor, as they have been in recent years. However, the same tilt can mean higher sensitivity to interest rate moves, earnings expectations, and sentiment around growth stocks. This structure implies that sector risk is concentrated: what happens in technology can have an outsized impact on total portfolio behavior.
Regions
- North America 87%
- Europe Developed 5%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 87% of the portfolio is tied to North America, with modest exposure to developed Europe, Japan, other developed Asia, Australasia, and a small slice in Africa/Middle East. Compared with global market capitalization, this is a clear US tilt, since the US is a large share of the world market but not nearly 90%. The international small‑cap value ETF provides most of the non‑US diversification, but it is still a minority position. A strong home‑bias has historically benefited from US market strength, yet it also ties the portfolio heavily to one economy, currency, and policy environment. Global diversification is present, but US dynamics remain the main driver.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 40%
- Mega-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 22%
- Small-cap 9%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans toward bigger companies: mega‑caps and large‑caps together make up around 68%, with mid‑caps at 22% and smaller companies around 10%. This resembles a “core plus” structure where large, established firms provide stability and liquidity, while mid‑ and small‑caps introduce additional growth potential and idiosyncratic behavior. Large and mega‑caps often dominate broad indexes, so this alignment helps the portfolio move somewhat in step with major benchmarks. At the same time, the intentional allocation to mid‑cap momentum and international small‑cap value adds a differentiated return pattern that may diverge from traditional large‑cap‑only exposures, especially in periods when smaller companies cycle in or out of favor.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.37%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 2.89%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.33%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 2.25%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.15%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.46%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
UN UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
CV Chevron Corp 1.25%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- Top 10 total 25.97%
Looking through to the top underlying holdings, a few names stand out: NVIDIA at about 7.4% of the portfolio, then Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, and Taiwan Semiconductor, each above 2%. These overlaps likely come from both the semiconductor ETF and the broad US growth or dividend funds. When the same company appears in multiple ETFs, its true weight in the portfolio rises, creating “hidden” concentration. For instance, semiconductor‑related names collectively represent a meaningful chunk of the look‑through exposure. Since only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, the actual overlap may be somewhat higher, but even this partial view shows that a handful of large technology and chip companies play a central role in portfolio performance.
Factors
Across the six classic equity factors—value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility—the portfolio scores in the neutral range for all, meaning overall it resembles the broad market’s factor mix. Factor exposure describes how much a portfolio leans into specific characteristics that research has linked to returns, like preferring cheap stocks (value) or stable ones (low volatility). Here, no strong tilt stands out in either direction. That might be surprising given the focused funds, but their combined effect balances out. This broad, market‑like factor profile suggests the portfolio’s return pattern is more driven by sector and geographic choices—especially its tech and US tilts—than by explicit factor bets such as deep value or high dividend yield.
Risk contribution
-
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 30.00% 31.7% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 20.00% 29.9% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 30.00% 21.4% -
Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.9% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The semiconductor ETF, at 20% weight, contributes almost 30% of total risk, giving it a risk/weight ratio of 1.50—meaning it is significantly more volatile than the average holding. The large‑cap growth ETF, at 30% weight, contributes about 32% of risk, roughly in line with its size. In contrast, the dividend and international small‑cap value ETFs contribute less risk than their weights. Altogether, the top three holdings drive about 83% of total portfolio risk. This indicates that while the portfolio holds five funds, day‑to‑day volatility is largely governed by a small subset, especially the semiconductor allocation.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, the current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.79, compared with 1.04 for the “optimal” portfolio built from the same five funds. The Sharpe ratio measures risk‑adjusted return, like how much return you’re getting per unit of volatility above a risk‑free rate. The current mix sits about 1.53 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning different weightings of these same ETFs could have historically provided a better return for the same volatility. There is also a minimum‑variance version with lower risk but slightly lower Sharpe. Overall, the structure is decent but not fully optimized in risk/return terms based solely on past data, which itself may not repeat.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.90%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.40%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.54%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.54%, which is modest but not negligible. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF stands out with a 3.4% yield, while the international small‑cap value ETF is also relatively income‑rich at 2.9%. In contrast, the growth, semiconductor, and mid‑cap momentum funds provide very low yield, reflecting their focus on companies that tend to reinvest earnings rather than pay them out. Dividends can matter for total return, especially over long periods when reinvested income compounds. In this case, capital appreciation has been the main engine historically, with dividends acting as a secondary contributor rather than the core focus of the overall portfolio design.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.34%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.17%
The portfolio’s weighted average total expense ratio (TER) is around 0.17%, which is impressively low given the mix of specialized and core ETFs. The cheapest funds are the Schwab US large‑cap growth and dividend ETFs, at 0.04% and 0.06% respectively, while the semiconductor, international small‑cap value, and mid‑cap momentum ETFs cost around 0.34–0.36%. Costs matter because they come off returns every year, and even small differences add up over long horizons. Here, the blended fee level is closer to broad index‑fund pricing than to typical active or thematic strategies. That cost efficiency provides a solid foundation, allowing more of the portfolio’s gross performance to show up in net results over time.
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