Almost a perfect lazy portfolio but determined to trip over its own overachieving feet
Report created on Aug 3, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 65.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 7.50% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 2.50%
This portfolio is basically a three-fund lazy classic with a couple of “I know what I’m doing” sprinkles on top. Most of the money sits in two broad index funds, which is boring in the good way, then you bolted on a small-cap value fund and a tiny momentum ETF like aftermarket spoilers on a Toyota Camry. Structurally it’s coherent but a bit performative: 97.5% is broad beta and 2.5% is “trust me bro, factor tilt.” The overall setup screams “I read the Boglehead wiki, then YouTube talked me into getting fancy.” It works, but it’s trying suspiciously hard for something that could have been stunningly simple.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done very well on paper but somehow still managed to underperform the plain vanilla US market. Turning $1,000 into $2,545 with a 14.67% CAGR is impressive until the US market strolls in at 16.12% and says, “Nice try.” You did beat the global market, though, so at least you weren’t the slowest jogger in the park. Max drawdown at -35.3% shows this party hits the floor hard when things break, barely worse than the benchmarks but still painful. And needing just 22 days to make 90% of returns is a reminder this is a “miss a few key days and cry later” type portfolio. Past data is helpful, not a time machine.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is basically the universe saying, “Yeah, this could go a lot of ways.” Monte Carlo just runs a thousand alternate histories using your portfolio’s past volatility and return profile, then smears them into a probability range. Median outcome of $2,758 after 15 years on $1,000 is fine but not heroic, and the 5–95% spread from $968 to $7,939 is comically wide. Translation: anything from “money went sideways” to “this aged like fine wine” is on the table. Simulated returns at 8.15% a year are a step down from your backtest glory, which is the model’s polite way of lowering expectations without hurting your feelings.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: there is exactly one. You are 100% in stocks, no buffer, no training wheels, no seatbelt. This is the “all gas no brakes” configuration — fine if you know it, dangerous if you think this is somehow balanced because there are multiple tickers. In risk terms, this is one big bet on global equity markets doing their thing without major interruption right when you need the money. There’s zero ballast here, so when stocks sneeze, the whole portfolio gets pneumonia. It’s a growth engine, sure, but it’s also an emotional stress test conveniently disguised as diversification.
Sectors
- Technology 31%
- Financials 15%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is very much a tech-era child. With technology sitting at 31%, it’s basically the main character, while everything else plays supporting roles. Financials and industrials do show up, but they’re clearly background extras compared with the chip designers and cloud gods. This isn’t necessarily reckless, since broad indexes lean that way too, but it does mean your fortunes are hooked to innovation cycles, regulation moods, and the occasional AI mania hangover. If the high-flying growth names ever decide to take a multi-year nap, the rest of your sectors don’t look beefy enough to fully carry the plot.
Regions
- North America 77%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is “USA plus a consolation prize for the rest of planet Earth.” With 77% in North America, everything else is pocket change labeled as diversification. Developed Europe, Japan, and other regions technically exist, but they clearly weren’t invited to make any real decisions. The usual logic is “own where the big companies live,” which is cute until currency swings, local crises, or non-US market cycles actually matter. This setup treats global investing like side quests in a US-dominated video game. It works when America is on a heater; it looks a lot weaker in decades when other regions do the heavy lifting.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 38%
- Large-cap 29%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 9%
- Micro-cap 5%
Market cap exposure looks almost eerily textbook: heavy in mega and large caps, then tapering politely down to mid, small, and a dash of micro. The catch is that your “small-cap value tilt” is basically a background whisper in a choir dominated by giants. With 38% mega and 29% large, the household names are driving the narrative while small and micro caps are more like garnish on an otherwise standard index burger. It’s not bad, just hilariously understated relative to how clever it probably felt to add a dedicated small-cap value ETF. The big boys still fully own the plot.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.80%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.11%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 21.54%
Look-through holdings tell the real story: you’re basically renting the US megacap tech cartel twice and calling it diversification. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron — this is the usual suspects lineup you get from standard US index exposure. The fact that just the top visible positions already give Nvidia over 4% and Apple almost 4% shows how much your fate depends on a handful of names. And remember, this only sees ETF top-10s, so the true overlap is even spicier. Hidden concentration is doing a lot of work here while the portfolio pretends to be broad and neutral.
Factors
Factor profile is almost aggressively neutral across the board — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low vol all hovering in market-like territory. For a portfolio that bothered to bolt on a small-cap value fund and a momentum ETF, the net effect is “eh, basically the market.” Factor exposure is like the ingredient list behind the label, and here it says you’ve built a huge generic soup, then sprinkled in two pinches of seasoning too small to taste. On the plus side, this makes behavior relatively predictable in different environments. On the minus side, the clever factor experiments are more cosplay than meaningful design.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 65.00% 66.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 22.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 7.50% 9.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 2.50% 2.5%
Risk contribution is brutally simple: the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is the boss, and everyone else is just staff. At 65% weight and 66.38% of total risk, it basically is the portfolio. The international fund pulls 25% weight and around 22% of risk, so it’s a strong sidekick, and your beloved small-cap value add-on punches slightly above its 7.5% weight with about 9% of risk. The momentum ETF is a rounding error. Top three positions driving 97.46% of risk means all your real drama comes from a tiny handful of broad funds — the rest is more spiritual diversification than actual risk shifting.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier is quietly roasting this portfolio. At your current risk level, you’re about 1.63 percentage points below what could be achieved just by reweighting the same ingredients. That Sharpe ratio of 0.59 versus 0.93 for the optimal mix is like running a marathon in hiking boots — you’ll finish, but you’re making it harder than it needs to be. The minimum variance version even manages a higher Sharpe than you with lower risk, which is just rude. The big message: this isn’t about picking new funds; it’s about admitting the current proportions are a bit lazy and statistically suboptimal.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.47%
The yield at 1.47% is a gentle reminder that this portfolio’s job is growth, not showering anyone with cash. International stocks do slightly more of the dividend heavy lifting, but overall this is very much a “reinvest and hope” setup. If somebody thought these holdings were a secret income machine, the numbers say otherwise. This is like owning a business that mostly reinvests profits instead of cutting big checks — good for long-term compounding, not great if someone is waiting on regular payouts. The upside is you’re not chasing desperate high yields, but the downside is there’s nothing here to make a coupon clipper smile.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are suspiciously low, in the best way. With a blended TER around 0.05%, this is basically institutional pricing smuggled into a retail portfolio. The two “fancy” funds are mildly more expensive but still nowhere near offensive territory. You’re not lighting money on fire for the privilege of holding extremely standard building blocks, which is more than can be said for a lot of portfolios. This is one area where there’s barely anything to roast — it’s like you accidentally clicked all the right low-fee options while shopping around and somehow resisted the urge to pay extra for marketing fluff.
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