Tech tilted US equity portfolio with low costs and strong historical growth but meaningful drawdown risk
Report created on Apr 26, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 60.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 25.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00%
This portfolio is a straightforward three‑ETF equity mix: a large core in a broad US index, a sizable slice in a concentrated growth index, and a smaller allocation to international stocks. The structure is simple and transparent, with 100% in stocks and no bonds or cash in the mix. That means the portfolio’s ups and downs are driven entirely by global stock markets, not by fixed income or other diversifiers. A focused lineup like this is easy to understand and manage, and the heavy use of broad index funds keeps exposures aligned with major markets. The trade‑off is that risk is closely tied to equity market cycles rather than being smoothed by other asset types.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to April 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,158, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.99%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing out the bumps. This slightly lagged the US market benchmark but comfortably beat the global market benchmark, reflecting the strong US tilt. The max drawdown of about -27% shows that the portfolio has seen sizable temporary losses, in line with equity risk. It took around 14 months to fully recover, which is typical for stock‑heavy portfolios. Only 25 days made up 90% of returns, underlining how a few strong days can dominate long‑term performance.
Projection
The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which runs many randomized paths based on historical return and volatility patterns to show a range of possible futures. For a $1,000 starting amount over 15 years, the median outcome is about $2,816, with a wide “likely” range between roughly $1,767 and $4,239. That spread illustrates how uncertainty grows with time, even when averages look attractive. The overall simulated annualized return of 8.18% is lower than the recent historical CAGR, highlighting that the past few years may have been unusually strong. As with all simulations, these paths are not forecasts, just statistically informed “what‑ifs” built from past behavior.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Being 100% in equities generally offers higher long‑term growth potential than mixed portfolios but also larger and more frequent swings in value. From a diversification standpoint, the internal mix across broad and growth‑oriented equity indices provides some balance within the stock bucket. However, without bonds or other defensive assets, there is little buffer in severe equity market downturns. Compared to typical blended benchmarks that mix stocks and bonds, this portfolio will usually show higher volatility and deeper drawdowns, while also benefiting more when equity markets perform strongly.
Sectors
- Technology 36%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 8%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is led by technology at 36%, with additional meaningful weight in telecommunications, financials, and consumer discretionary. This tech tilt is common in modern equity portfolios, as technology companies make up a large share of major indexes, but the additional growth index allocation further reinforces that bias. Tech‑heavy portfolios can do very well when innovation and earnings growth are rewarded, but they tend to be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when investors rotate toward more cyclical or defensive areas. The remaining spread across industrials, health care, staples, and other sectors helps avoid single‑sector dominance, which is a positive sign for diversification.
Regions
- North America 85%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 85% of the portfolio is in North America, with the remainder spread thinly across developed Europe, Japan, other developed Asia, emerging Asia, and smaller regions. This strong home bias toward North America aligns with many global benchmarks where US companies have large weights. It has been beneficial during recent years of US market outperformance, contributing to the strong historical growth. However, it also means that portfolio performance is closely tied to one main economic region and currency. The smaller international slice introduces exposure to other economies and policy environments, which adds some diversification but does not fully globalize the risk profile.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 47%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 1%
The portfolio is dominated by mega‑cap and large‑cap companies, which together account for over 80% of exposure. These are some of the world’s biggest, most established businesses, often with diversified operations and strong balance sheets. Such companies can provide stability relative to smaller firms, as their share prices typically move less dramatically on company‑specific news. Only a small fraction sits in mid‑ and especially small‑cap stocks. That means the portfolio is less exposed to the potential higher growth and higher volatility often associated with smaller companies. Overall, the market‑cap mix is very close to standard broad equity benchmarks, which is helpful for a predictable risk pattern.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.24%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 32.89%
Looking through the top holdings across the ETFs, a handful of large US companies stand out: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway. Because these appear across multiple funds, their combined weights are higher than any single fund suggests, creating some hidden concentration. For example, NVIDIA alone represents about 6.8% of the portfolio based on top‑10 data, and Apple around 5.8%. This overlap is normal for index‑tracking funds but means the portfolio’s fortunes are meaningfully tied to the performance of these mega‑cap names. Since only ETF top‑10 holdings are included, actual overlap could be modestly higher than shown here.
Factors
Factor exposures across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility are all in the “neutral” range, close to market averages. Factor exposure describes how much a portfolio leans into certain characteristics that academic research links to returns, like cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility). A neutral profile suggests the portfolio behaves similarly to a broad global equity market in terms of these underlying traits, without heavily emphasizing any one style. This balance can be helpful because performance is not overly dependent on one factor environment, such as growth rallies or value rebounds. Instead, returns are more driven by overall market direction and regional tilts.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 60.00% 57.4% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 31.0% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 11.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to the portfolio’s overall volatility, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is 60% of the portfolio and contributes about 57% of total risk, so its risk share is very much in line with its size. The NASDAQ 100 ETF, at 25% weight, contributes roughly 31% of risk, meaning it’s somewhat more volatile relative to its slice. The international ETF’s risk contribution is slightly lower than its weight, suggesting it brings some diversification benefits. Overall, the pattern is logical: the growth‑oriented index punches a bit above its weight in driving ups and downs.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current mix is on or very close to the optimal curve formed by these three ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is 0.67 for the current portfolio versus 0.88 for the max‑Sharpe mix and 0.80 for the minimum‑variance mix. Those higher Sharpe points come from slightly different weightings but similar expected returns. Since the current allocation sits near the frontier, it’s already making good use of the available building blocks for its chosen risk level. That’s a strong sign that, within these funds, the risk/return relationship is reasonably efficient.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.20%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.2%, with the international ETF offering the highest yield and the NASDAQ 100 ETF the lowest. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, like a “cashback” from companies. In this portfolio, most of the expected return comes from price growth rather than income, which is typical for growth‑tilted and US‑heavy equity mixes. Dividends still play a role by adding a steady component to total return, especially from international and broad US holdings. Historically, reinvesting dividends has been a key driver of long‑term equity growth, even when headline yields look modest.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
The total ongoing cost, or TER, is around 0.06%, which is extremely low by industry standards. TER (Total Expense Ratio) is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of the invested amount, and it quietly reduces returns over time. Here, the broad S&P 500 ETF and the international ETF are particularly inexpensive, and even the higher‑fee growth index is still relatively cheap. Low costs help more of the portfolio’s gross return stay in the investor’s pocket, especially over long horizons where small differences compound significantly. This cost profile is a major strength and aligns very well with best practices for passive investing.
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