Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong large cap focus and historically high return profile
Report created on May 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 60.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 25.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00%
This portfolio is a simple three‑ETF, all‑equity mix tilted entirely to the US stock market. Around 60% sits in a broad S&P 500 index fund, giving core exposure to large US companies. Another 25% leans into S&P 500 momentum stocks, which favors recent winners. The remaining 15% targets US small cap value companies, adding exposure further down the market size spectrum. With 100% in stocks and no bonds or cash, the structure is firmly growth‑oriented. This concentration in one country and one asset class keeps things easy to understand and manage, but it also means the portfolio’s ups and downs are tightly tied to the US equity cycle.
Growth
From late 2019 to May 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,023, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.13%. CAGR is like the average speed of a car over a long trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That’s ahead of both the US market (16.46%) and the global market (13.87%), so the growth mix has historically added extra return. The biggest drop was about -35% during the early 2020 selloff, recovering in roughly five months, similar in depth to the benchmarks. Returns were quite concentrated, with just 25 trading days driving 90% of gains, showing that missing a handful of strong days would have changed the outcome a lot.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation projects many possible 15‑year futures using the portfolio’s historical risk and return pattern. Monte Carlo is basically a big “what‑if” engine: it runs 1,000 random paths, each mixing good and bad years, to show a range of outcomes rather than a single forecast. Here, the median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,771, with a middle “likely” band from roughly $1,775 to $4,270. The very wide 5–95% band ($963–$7,926) illustrates just how uncertain long‑term equity results can be. An overall simulated annual return around 8.11% is much lower than recent history, underlining that past strong returns don’t guarantee a repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is invested in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. That gives it clear exposure to the growth and earnings of companies, but also makes returns highly sensitive to equity market cycles. When stocks rise, an all‑equity allocation typically benefits more; when they fall, there’s no cushioning from safer assets. Many broad “market” benchmarks mix equities with bonds, which generally softens volatility compared with a 100% stock approach. Here, the design is intentionally growth‑heavy and simple, with no internal ballast. The diversification happens within equities themselves, through different styles and sizes, rather than across multiple asset classes.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector‑wise, the portfolio is led by technology at 35%, with the rest spread across financials, industrials, telecom, consumer areas, health care, energy, staples, materials, utilities, and real estate. This tech‑heavy tilt is broadly similar to modern US equity benchmarks but leans even further into growth‑oriented, innovation‑driven businesses when combined with the momentum fund. That can be powerful when tech is leading markets, as it has been in recent years, but may mean sharper swings if that sector falls out of favor or faces regulatory or rate‑sensitive pressure. The presence of sectors like utilities, staples, and real estate adds some balance, though they are relatively small slices.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, about 99% of the portfolio is in North America, effectively making it a pure US equity strategy. This matches the focus of all three ETFs and aligns closely with a “home market” approach for a US‑based investor. Many global benchmarks, by contrast, spread roughly half or a bit more into the US and the rest across other regions. Staying US‑centric has worked well over the last decade, as reflected in the portfolio’s outperformance versus the global market benchmark. The trade‑off is that economic, political, and currency risks are all anchored in a single country, so global diversification benefits are limited here by design.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 38%
- Large-cap 33%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 8%
- Micro-cap 7%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is tilted toward bigger companies: 38% mega‑cap and 33% large‑cap, with the remainder in mid, small, and micro caps. This pattern is consistent with an S&P 500 core holding, but the dedicated small cap value ETF increases exposure to the smaller end of the spectrum compared with a pure large‑cap index. Larger firms often bring more stable earnings and deeper liquidity, while smaller companies can be more volatile but offer different growth or recovery patterns. Having meaningful slices in mid, small, and micro caps broadens the opportunity set within equities, though the behavior of the portfolio overall is still dominated by large US names.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.87%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.51%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.79%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.51%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.30%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.04%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 30.88%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of big US tech and growth companies stand out: NVIDIA, Apple, Broadcom, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Micron, Meta, and Tesla. NVIDIA alone shows up at about 7.08% of the portfolio, with several other names in the 2–4% range. These positions appear via multiple funds, so overlap creates hidden concentration even though there’s no direct single‑stock purchase. Because only each ETF’s top 10 is used, this overlap is likely understated. This cluster of influential names helps explain the strong historical performance and tech tilt, but also means the portfolio’s results are especially sensitive to how these few giants perform.
Factors
The factor exposure profile is broadly neutral across all six measured factors: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility. Factor exposure describes how much the portfolio leans into characteristics that research links to long‑term returns, like cheapness (value) or recent winners (momentum). Here, all scores sit in the 40–60% “neutral” band, implying a market‑like mix without strong tilts in any single direction. That’s interesting given the explicit momentum and small cap value ETFs: at the total‑portfolio level, they seem to roughly offset, leaving a balanced factor footprint. This suggests the portfolio may behave somewhat like a broad market equity basket, despite its more specialized building blocks.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 60.00% 57.6% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 25.00% 25.1% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 17.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from weight alone. The S&P 500 ETF, at 60% weight, contributes about 57.63% of risk, almost perfectly in line. The momentum ETF is 25% of assets and about 25.11% of risk, again quite proportional. The small cap value ETF is 15% of the portfolio but adds 17.26% of total risk, with a risk/weight ratio above 1, reflecting its naturally higher volatility. Overall, risk is shared reasonably in line with weights, with a mild extra punch from small caps. This alignment means position sizes are a good guide to which holdings matter most for total volatility.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares this portfolio’s current mix with other combinations of the same three ETFs. The current setup has a Sharpe ratio of 0.72, meaning return per unit of risk, while the optimized mix on the frontier reaches 0.97, and the minimum‑variance mix sits at 0.81. Because the portfolio lies about 1.13 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, it isn’t making the absolute most of the existing ingredients in risk‑adjusted terms. The chart suggests that simply reweighting these same three funds—without adding new ones—could have delivered a slightly better balance between volatility and expected return.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.97%
The overall dividend yield of about 0.97% is modest for an equity portfolio, reflecting the growth‑oriented nature of US large and small cap holdings. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, and here it plays a relatively small role in total return compared with capital gains. The small cap value ETF offers the highest yield at 1.30%, while the momentum ETF is lowest at 0.70%, which is typical since momentum strategies often favor companies that reinvest earnings rather than paying them out. For this mix, dividends provide a steady but minor income stream; the main story is price movement and earnings growth.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
The weighted ongoing cost of the portfolio is low, with a total expense ratio (TER) around 0.09%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly reduces returns over time. The S&P 500 ETF is especially cheap at 0.03%, while the momentum and small cap value funds are still reasonably priced at 0.13% and 0.25%. These are competitive levels for the strategies involved. Keeping costs this low is a real strength: even differences of a few tenths of a percent can compound significantly over long horizons. Here, fees are unlikely to be a major drag on long‑term performance.
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