Riding a semiconductor rocket with gold dust and a tiny bond parachute for when it all explodes
Report created on Apr 29, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 50.00% -
ID Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
IDMO - US46138E2220 15.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 15.00% -
GD VanEck Gold Miners ETF
GDX - US92189F1066 10.00% -
VW VANGUARD HIGH-YIELD TAX-EXEMPT FUND INVESTOR SHARES
VWAHX - US9229074078 10.00%
This “portfolio” is basically one giant semiconductor bet wearing a cheap Halloween costume labeled “diversified.” Half the money is in a single sector ETF, another 30% is in pure momentum products, and the last 20% is split between gold miners drama and a polite little muni bond fund trying not to panic. Structurally, it’s more stunt show than retirement plan. When one theme dominates, every decision is really just a yes/no on that theme, not a portfolio choice. This setup means the headline weights lie a bit: it looks like five holdings, but in practice it’s one big call on chips, with some side quests.
Growth
Historically, this thing has absolutely ripped: $1,000 turning into $11,641 with a 36.31% CAGR is cartoonish. That’s “enjoy it while it lasts” territory, not a normal equity experience. The US market and global market look slow and sensible by comparison, which should be a warning sign, not a comfort blanket. Max drawdown of almost -40% proves the downside isn’t theoretical. And needing just 50 days for 90% of returns screams “miss a few good days and welcome to regret.” Past data is like yesterday’s weather: impressive storm, no guarantee it repeats on schedule.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection takes that wild past and tries to imagine 1,000 possible futures, then averages the chaos. Median outcome of $2,746 from $1,000 over 15 years is a lot more boring than the backtest fireworks, and that’s the point. The range from about $1,066 to $6,281 shows the portfolio could land anywhere between “meh” and “story you brag about at parties.” Simulations are basically fancy dice rolls fed with history, and history here is unusually good. Translation: the math still gives decent odds, but it’s quietly dialing expectations way down from the hero narrative.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- Bonds 10%
On paper, this is a classic “aggressive” split: 90% stocks, 10% bonds. In reality, that 10% in a high-yield tax-exempt bond fund is like taping a foam helmet onto someone doing base jumps. It reduces portfolio risk contribution to a rounding error, but doesn’t really change the personality. The 90% in equities is not broad equities either; it’s turbo-charged exposure layered with momentum and cyclicality. So the asset class section says “moderately sensible,” while the actual behavior says “hold on tight.” If you were hoping the bonds would meaningfully balance things, the numbers disagree.
Sectors
- Technology 58%
- Basic Materials 12%
- Financials 7%
- Industrials 6%
- Telecommunications 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Health Care 1%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Energy 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector breakdown exposes the main joke: 58% in technology, plus another 12% in basic materials via gold miners. “Diversification” here mostly means deciding whether to suffer with chips or with miners when things go south. With tech so dominant, the portfolio’s fate is tied to one broad theme: high-growth, high-expectation companies that move violently when sentiment shifts. The smaller scraps in financials, industrials, and others are just garnish. Compared to a broad index, this isn’t a tilt; it’s addiction. If tech sneezes, this portfolio catches pneumonia, gold miners just argue about whose turn it is to be volatile.
Regions
- North America 67%
- Europe Developed 11%
- No data 10%
- Asia Developed 7%
- Japan 3%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Australasia 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, it’s very “America first and then we’ll see,” with 67% in North America and bits and pieces scattered across developed markets. The international momentum ETF is doing some work to avoid total home-country myopia, but not enough to change the headline: most risk is still tied to one economic and policy regime. The 10% “no data” is just the usual look-through blind spot, not some mystery asset. Compared with global markets, the tilt is heavy and deliberate. When the US is leading, that looks genius; when it lags, this positioning very quickly looks like overconfidence.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 41%
- Mega-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Small-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market cap exposure is unapologetically big-boy focused: 37% mega-cap and 41% large-cap. This is the “own the giants, ignore the weird small stuff” approach, but layered with momentum, so it’s not actually conservative. Big names can still be wildly volatile when everyone piles into the same trade, and the look-through list already shows that happening. Only 1% in small caps and 11% mid means there’s almost no diversification from genuinely different parts of the market. It’s basically a popularity contest of the biggest, trendiest stocks, not a thoughtful spread across company sizes.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 10.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 5.33%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 3.07%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 2.49%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
KL KLA Corporation 2.36%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AD Analog Devices Inc 2.23%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 40.43%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through is a who’s-who of the semiconductor hype train: NVIDIA at over 10%, then TSMC, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Intel, Lam, TI, KLA, Analog Devices. That’s not a top exposures list; it’s a roll call of the same theme repeated across multiple funds. Hidden concentration is the main story here. You don’t “own lots of ETFs”; you own the same handful of companies several times. And remember, this is only using top 10 holdings — real overlap is likely worse. When one name or cluster becomes that central, portfolio behavior just becomes a reflection of that group’s mood swings.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, the portfolio has a big neon sign that says MOMENTUM, with a 62% score. That means it’s chasing what’s been working recently, like always joining the longest line at the party because “they must know something.” Low value and low yield confirm this is not about bargains or income; it’s about price trends and growth narratives. Neutral quality and size mean there’s no special filter for sturdiness or company scale beyond market averages. In good trending markets, this exposure can look genius. In sharp reversals, momentum-heavy setups can feel like running full speed into a glass door.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 50.00% 71.7% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 15.00% 11.8% -
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
Weight: 15.00% 9.6% -
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Weight: 10.00% 6.5% -
VANGUARD HIGH-YIELD TAX-EXEMPT FUND INVESTOR SHARES
Weight: 10.00% 0.3%
Risk contribution exposes the real boss: the semiconductor ETF. At 50% weight, it’s contributing nearly 72% of total risk, which is absurdly top-heavy. The top three positions together contribute over 93% of risk. Everyone else is basically background noise. The muni fund is a bystander at 0.27% risk contribution, like a calm person accidentally trapped in a bar fight. Risk/weight over 1 for semis means that slice is even more volatile than its size suggests. So while the allocation grid shows five holdings, risk-wise there’s one driver, two co-pilots, and two passengers locked in the trunk.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio is basically sitting right on the curve, which is slightly annoying because it means the chaos is at least efficient chaos. Sharpe ratio of 1.12 versus an optimal 1.26 suggests there’s some theoretical improvement, but it would actually involve taking even more risk for more return. The minimum variance option is a totally different personality at much lower risk and return. Since the portfolio’s already near the frontier using its current ingredients, this isn’t a case of “bad mix”; it’s “deliberately spicy recipe that does exactly what it says.”
Dividends
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF 0.70%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.60%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- VANGUARD HIGH-YIELD TAX-EXEMPT FUND INVESTOR SHARES 4.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.23%
Total yield of 1.23% confirms that income is an afterthought here, not a feature. The two momentum funds and the semiconductor ETF are basically allergic to dividends, which tracks: this portfolio is about price action, not cash flow. The muni fund at 4.00% and the international momentum ETF at 3.60% are doing all the lifting, but their weights are too small to change the character. Anyone expecting this lineup to pay the bills steadily is reading the wrong brochure. This is a capital growth roller coaster with a side of small coupon payments as consolation prizes.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF 0.51%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- VANGUARD HIGH-YIELD TAX-EXEMPT FUND INVESTOR SHARES 0.17%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.30%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio quietly behaves like an adult. A total TER of 0.30% is reasonable for such a specialized, factor-heavy setup. The gold miners ETF at 0.51% is a bit pricey, but miners are niche enough that you almost expect a cover charge. The cheapest piece is actually the S&P 500 momentum ETF, which is doing serious work at a fair price. So no, fees aren’t the villain here. The main joke is that you’ve built a high-octane, concentrated rocket ship and at least didn’t overpay for the privilege of riding it.
What next?
Ready to invest in this portfolio?
Select a broker that fits your needs and watch for low fees to maximize your returns.
Create your own report?
Join our community!
Compare your holdings
How much do the funds you hold actually overlap with the ones people weigh them against?
The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Insightfolio does not provide investment advice, personalized recommendations, or guidance regarding the purchase, holding, or sale of financial assets. The tools and content are intended for educational purposes only and are not tailored to individual circumstances, financial needs, or objectives.
Insightfolio assumes no liability for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for verifying the information and making independent decisions based on their own research and careful consideration. Use of the platform should not replace consultation with qualified financial professionals.
Investments involve risks. Users should be aware that the value of investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Investment decisions should be based on personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and independent evaluation of relevant information.
Insightfolio does not endorse or guarantee the suitability of any particular financial product, security, or strategy. Any projections, forecasts, or hypothetical scenarios presented on the platform are for illustrative purposes only and are not guarantees of future outcomes.
By accessing the services, information, or content offered by Insightfolio, users acknowledge and agree to these terms of the disclaimer. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use our platform.
Instrument logos provided by Elbstream.
Help us improve Insightfolio
Your feedback makes a difference! Share your thoughts in our quick survey. Take the survey