Momentum chasing with shiny metals and a bond sidekick pretending this is balanced
Report created on Jul 22, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 30.00% -
GL abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF
GLTR - US26922W1099 20.00% -
XS Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF
XSVM - US46137V4804 20.00% -
AV Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
AVEM - US0250726041 15.00% -
GO Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF
GOVI - US46138E1073 15.00%
This portfolio looks like three different people built it and then never spoke again. A big slab of large-cap US momentum, a chunky dose of small-cap value-with-momentum chaos, a block of emerging markets spice, plus a 20% lump of precious metals and a token “I tried” 15% in Treasuries. The label says “balanced,” but the actual behavior screams “equity-driven rollercoaster with a gold-plated hood ornament.” Structurally, it’s basically a risk engine (65% stocks plus metals) with one boring bond ETF bolted on as an afterthought. The result is something that looks diversified on a pie chart but is really just a few aggressive risk levers in a trench coat.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done the fun part very well: turning $1,000 into $2,677 with a 15.55% CAGR. That’s road-trip-fast, almost keeping up with the US market and clearly outrunning global stocks. Max drawdown at -25.9% was actually milder than the benchmarks, so the crash wasn’t totally unhinged. But notice how 90% of returns came from just 34 days — this portfolio is living off a tiny handful of manic episodes. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like your average speed over the whole trip; this portfolio got there fast but only because it survived some very spicy stretches without crashing harder. Past data is still yesterday’s weather, not a forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Yeah, that party’s probably over.” Simulations peg the median 15‑year outcome around $2,371 from $1,000, which is way tamer than the historical joyride. Monte Carlo is just a fancy coin-flip machine: it scrambles returns in many possible sequences to see what might happen, not what will. The possible range from about $1,151 to $5,011 shows this portfolio can easily underwhelm or pleasantly surprise. With a 70.9% chance of a positive result, it’s not a disaster, but the average 6.52% annualized across all paths is a cold reminder that the backtest might have been the highlight reel, not the trailer for the sequel.
Asset classes
- Stocks 65%
- Other 20%
- Bonds 15%
On paper, the asset mix looks “balanced-ish”: 65% stocks, 20% “other” (the precious metals), and 15% bonds. In practice, that 15% Treasury slice is the quiet intern doing all the stabilizing while the equities and metals slam energy drinks in the parking lot. The metals are particularly odd here: 20% is a serious commitment to something that doesn’t produce cash flows and just kind of shines and wiggles around. Calling this “balanced” is generous; it’s mostly growth-oriented risk with a metal hedge and one bond ETF trying to keep everyone from destroying the furniture during the next downturn.
Sectors
- Technology 22%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Health Care 3%
- Energy 3%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Real Estate 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, the portfolio is clearly tech-flavored even though it pretends to be more down-to-earth. Technology leads at 22%, with financials in second at 14%, and then everything else in single digits, just there to make the bar chart look respectable. The tech tilt isn’t outrageous, but when combined with momentum and small-cap value, it’s like adding extra hot sauce to food that was already spicy. The sector spread looks fine at first glance, yet the underlying style choices mean those sectors are anything but boring. This is not the calm, steady sector balance you’d expect from something labeled “balanced”; it’s closer to “growth with accessories.”
Regions
- North America 50%
- Asia Developed 7%
- Asia Emerging 5%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this portfolio is basically “USA and supporting cast.” About 50% in North America, then single-digit bits in developed and emerging Asia, plus token slivers in Latin America and Africa/Middle East. The emerging markets ETF is at least trying to drag the portfolio out of its comfort zone, but the overall picture is still very home-biased. It’s diversified enough to avoid being purely domestic, but not exactly a world explorer. It’s like visiting three new countries and then spending the rest of the trip at your regular chain restaurant — technically global, spiritually local.
Market capitalization
- No data 20%
- Mega-cap 19%
- Large-cap 19%
- Micro-cap 16%
- Mid-cap 6%
- Small-cap 4%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The market cap breakdown is a bit of a circus. You’ve got nearly 20% in mega-cap, another 19% in large-cap, but then a chunky 16% in micro-caps and some small/mid sprinkled in. Oh, and 20% marked as “No data,” which is your precious metals sitting there like an identity crisis. This isn’t a smooth barbell or a neat spread; it’s more like someone grabbed a handful of mega-caps and then panic-bought tiny companies for spice. That micro-cap exposure adds a lot of hidden shakiness — the kind you only really notice when markets stop being friendly and liquidity suddenly matters.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.25%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.09%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.96%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
-
00 SK Hynix Inc 0.91%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
- Top 10 total 15.50%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through holdings reveal a not-so-subtle crush on semiconductors and big tech-ish names. Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, Lam Research, TSMC, plus both Alphabet share classes — this portfolio clearly has a silicon habit. And that’s just within the limited top‑10 coverage; overlap is almost certainly worse under the hood. Hidden concentration like this turns multiple ETFs into a single-theme bet dressed as diversification. Own three funds, still end up heavily tilted to a handful of big chips and platforms. When those names are hot, everything looks genius. When they sneeze, the whole portfolio catches a cold, even if the pie chart pretends otherwise.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, this thing is not shy. High value and high quality exposure mean it’s chasing “cheap but not trash” stocks, which is actually one of the more sensible things happening here. Momentum and size are roughly neutral overall, but that hides the fact you’re stapling momentum to both large-cap and small-cap value in specific funds. Factor exposure is like the ingredient label: here it says, “a lot of valuation discipline and decent business quality, with extra seasoning of style risk from how those factors are packaged.” In rough markets, that quality tilt may help, but when factor cycles turn, the value-centric flavor can sit out whole rallies looking awkward.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 30.00% 37.5% -
Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 27.6% -
abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF
Weight: 20.00% 17.3% -
Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Weight: 15.00% 17.0% -
Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF
Weight: 15.00% 0.6%
Risk contribution puts the real story in flashing lights. The S&P 500 Momentum ETF is 30% of the portfolio but does 37.5% of the risk lifting, while the small-cap value-with-momentum ETF is 20% of the weight and 27.6% of the risk. Together with metals, the top three slices generate over 82% of total portfolio risk. The bond ETF? Fifteen percent weight, a whopping 0.64% risk contribution — basically decorative in volatility terms. Risk contribution is the “who’s actually shaking the table” metric, and here, the growthy and small-cap exposures are throwing the party while Treasuries quietly refill the snack bowl.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart gently points out that this portfolio is leaving performance on the table for the risk it’s taking. At its current risk level, it sits about 1.28 percentage points below the best achievable combo using the same ingredients. Sharpe ratio of 0.75 vs a potential 1.05 says the mix is a bit sloppy: same pantry, worse meal. The minimum-variance version is way safer but barely earns its keep, which is classic over-defensive. Optimization here isn’t about new toys; it’s just mocking how the current weights manage to be neither the most efficient nor the most stable, despite having the tools to do better.
Dividends
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF 1.90%
- Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF 3.60%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF 1.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.38%
Dividend yield at 1.38% is basically pocket change. The Treasury ETF tries to look grown-up with a 3.6% yield, but momentum-heavy US equities drag the overall number back down to “don’t quit your day job.” This portfolio is clearly growth and price-movement focused, not an income machine. Dividends are more like background noise than a core feature. Anyone staring at this setup expecting a meaningful cash stream is essentially hoping the momentum funds suddenly change personality and turn into grandma’s coupon clippers — which the 0.7–1.9% yields are loudly disagreeing with.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF 0.33%
- abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF 0.60%
- Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Years Treasury ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF 0.36%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.30%
Costs are the one area where this circus looks surprisingly disciplined. A total TER of 0.30% is perfectly reasonable for a mix involving emerging markets, factor tilts, and a shiny precious metals toy. Sure, the metals ETF at 0.60% and the small-cap value-with-momentum at 0.36% aren’t cheap, but they’re not cartoon-villain expensive either. Think economy-plus pricing rather than first-class rip-off. Fees are under control enough that if returns disappoint, it won’t be because of costs quietly bleeding the portfolio — the more likely culprit will be the portfolio’s actual personality, which is doing plenty on its own.
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