Portfolio report
Efficient looking but benchmark lagging factor nerd portfolio hiding behind four overlapping funds
Report created on Oct 2, 2026The briefing
What stands out
Two US funds that move almost identically are basically a Spider-Man pointing meme. Might be worth figuring out whether both are actually pulling their weight or if one is just a comfort blanket labeled “diversification.”
The international small-cap value tilt is doing the “I’m different” act in a portfolio otherwise worshiping broad indexes. Decide whether this quirky sleeve is a deliberate conviction or just something that snuck in while you were chasing factor buzzwords.
Historical returns lagged the plain US market while taking a slightly deeper dive in the 2020 crash. If the goal was “smart but safer,” this track record suggests more “smart and just as punchy” — worth checking if that tradeoff still passes the sniff test.
Highlights from the assessment. Explore the analysis below for context and assumptions.
Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
The starting point
Positions
-
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 25.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
AVUS - US0250728856 25.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 25.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00%
This portfolio is cosplay “simple and smart”: four equity ETFs at 25% each, but two pairs are basically doing the same job. It looks diversified on the surface yet feels like someone mashed together two total-market funds with two factor funds and called it a day. Structurally, it’s clean but a bit pointless in places: overlapping broad US funds, overlapping international funds, and then one spicy small-cap value tilt bolted on. It’s less a carefully tuned engine and more a parts bin special that happens to run well. The result: complexity without much extra edge, and diversification that’s more aesthetic than surgical.
Growth
Historically, this thing pulled a 14.26% CAGR from 2019 to 2026, more than doubling money to $2,541 from $1,000. Nice… until the US market strolls in with 16.11% and quietly flexes. You basically paid with underperformance to get a bit more “smart beta flavor,” while global equities trailed you slightly. Max drawdown of -36.77% was uglier than both benchmarks too, so you didn’t even suffer less on the way down. Remember, CAGR is just the smoothed annual growth rate over the ride; here, the ride was bumpier and slower than the plain US index. Past data is useful, but it’s still yesterday’s weather report.
Drawdowns
- Worst fall 01/17/2020 – 03/23/2020 -36.8%
- Time from the high to the bottom 66 days
- Time back to the previous high 10/12/2020 203 days
- Today, below the last high -2.8%
- Worst fall, US Market -33.7%
- Worst fall, Global Market -33.5%
Benchmarks over the same dates, for reference only.
Worst falls
- 01/17/2020 – 03/23/2020 Back at the high after 269 days -36.8%
- 11/08/2021 – 09/30/2022 Back at the high after 774 days -25.3%
- 02/18/2025 – 04/08/2025 Back at the high after 84 days -16.0%
- 02/25/2026 – 03/30/2026 Back at the high after 51 days -9.9%
- 07/16/2024 – 08/05/2024 Back at the high after 38 days -8.3%
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation treats this portfolio like a dice roll repeated 1,000 times over 15 years to see how often things go well or badly. Median outcome: $2,701 from $1,000, with a pretty wide “could be fine, could be meh” range of $1,832–$4,129. There’s a decent 74.6% chance of finishing positive, but also a non-trivial shot of basically going nowhere ($1,001 at the 5th percentile). Simulations assume the future vaguely behaves like the past, which is charmingly optimistic. The 8.05% annualized projection is more grounded than your backtest heroics, but it also says: expect volatility, not miracles.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class breakdown is delightfully blunt: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. This portfolio took one look at bonds, real assets, or cash and said, “no thanks, volatility is my personality now.” That’s textbook “growth” in a brochure, but in reality it means no shock absorbers when markets hit a pothole. In math-speak, you’re fully tied to equity risk; in normal-speak, if stocks catch a cold, this portfolio gets the flu. It’s a very pure bet on the global equity machine grinding upward over time, with zero built-in plan for smoothing the ride when things stall or reverse.
Sectors
- Technology 23%
- Financials 16%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Basic Materials 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, this is very “modern index with a value twist.” Tech leads at 23%, then financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary fill out the middle. Nothing cartoonishly extreme, but let’s not pretend 23% in tech is low either. It’s basically saying, “I like the future, but I also love boring cheap stuff.” That mishmash can work, but it does mean the portfolio gets yanked around by whatever macro story is in fashion: growth booms, rates spike, banks wobble, factories cycle. This isn’t a clean thematic bet; it’s more like owning a little bit of every plotline and hoping the ensemble cast works out.
Regions
- North America 55%
- Europe Developed 18%
- Japan 12%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Australasia 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is finally a US-centric portfolio that at least pretends the rest of the planet exists. North America at 55% is dominant but not absurd, with a decent spread across Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and even small slices of emerging regions. For something built by a US-based investor, this is surprisingly reasonable — almost suspiciously so. But don’t confuse “widely scattered flags” with truly independent returns: global markets tend to panic together in real crises. Still, compared with the usual “America or bust” approach, this one at least brings a few foreign passports to the party.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 28%
- Large-cap 22%
- Small-cap 15%
- Micro-cap 3%
Market-cap exposure is a deliberate Frankenstein: 31% mega-cap, 22% large, 28% mid, 15% small, and 3% micro. That’s a broad spread, juiced by that international small-cap value sleeve. It’s like someone started with a boring mega-cap core and then stapled on a “cheap little guys abroad” hobby project. The upside: more diversification by company size; the downside: mid and small caps can throw much bigger tantrums in rough markets. This is not a mega-cap glamor portfolio—more like a mix of global celebrities, regional mid-list names, and a handful of scrappy bar bands trying to make it.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.18%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.02%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.39%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.18%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.99%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.94%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 0.59%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 16.02%
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects hogging the spotlight: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, TSMC, Broadcom, plus a side of Micron. You wanted global diversification; you got the standard mega-cap tech and semi buffet via multiple wrappers. Nvidia at 3.18%, Apple at 3.02% — all via ETFs, no direct picks — means you outsourced conviction to the index committee. Overlap is likely higher than shown because we only see top 10s, so hidden duplication is almost guaranteed. This isn’t stock selection; it’s “own the popular kids several times and pretend that’s subtle.”
Factors
The factor profile loudly screams “value and low volatility” while everything else stays roughly market-like. Value at 62% and low vol at 63% mean a mild but real tilt: this portfolio likes cheaper, steadier names over shiny high-flyers. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label behind the ETFs — it explains why performance can wander away from the vanilla index. Here, you’ve chosen (or stumbled into) the “sensible shoes” combo: less hype, more boring fundamentals. That can help during crashes but lag in manic bull runs. It’s coherent, at least — not a chaotic mashup of contradictory factor bets.
Risk contribution
-
Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
Weight: 25.00% 26.3% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 25.7% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 25.00% 24.1% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 23.9%
Risk contribution is almost hilariously even: each 25% sleeve throws in about a quarter of the total risk. That’s textbook diversification by design, not by accident. The Avantis US ETF and Vanguard Total Market each contribute slightly more than their weight, meaning they’re the slightly spicier kids in class, but nothing is wildly overpowered. No 5% position secretly driving 20% of the chaos here. Risk contribution just shows who’s really shaking the portfolio, and in this case, it’s a democracy of four fairly similar voices. Effective? Yes. Interesting? Not particularly. This is risk management by power-sharing agreement.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationAvantis® U.S. Equity ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
The correlation section quietly exposes the redundancy: Avantis U.S. Equity and Vanguard Total Stock Market move almost identically. So two of your four legs on this “diversification table” are basically the same plank painted different colors. Correlation just measures how often things zig and zag together, and this pair is clearly joined at the hip. That means you’re burning complexity and fee drag on an illusion of choice — emotionally satisfying, mathematically pointless. In a crash, they dive together; in a rally, they spike together. It’s like owning two copies of the same album and pretending that’s a bigger music collection.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio is annoyingly competent. Sharpe ratio of 0.59 versus an optimal 0.8 doesn’t win any trophies, but you’re sitting on or very near the frontier, meaning with these exact holdings, the mix isn’t dumb. Risk at 18.81% for a 15.17% return is a fair trade in this setup. The efficient frontier is just the curve of “best possible deals” between risk and return given your ingredients; you’re reasonably close to that curve. So the structure is efficient, even if the chosen recipe underperformed a plain US benchmark historically. Smart arrangement, slightly questionable flavor.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.20%
- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF 0.90%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.90%
A 1.90% total yield is the definition of “nice to have, not a feature.” One sleeve throws off 3.2%, another limps in under 1%, and the broad funds sit in the middle. This is not a dividend portfolio; it’s a growth-focused mix that happens to drip a bit of cash. Dividends here are more background noise than core design — seasoning, not the main course. Relying on this income stream for anything serious would be optimistic at best. The real story is total return, not the quarterly pocket change. Yield tourists would be deeply underwhelmed by this setup.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.15%
Total TER at 0.15% is impressively low for a portfolio that dabbles in factor tilts. Vanguard’s pieces are ultra-cheap as usual, and the Avantis stuff charges a bit more for its supposed “smartness,” but overall you’re not lighting money on fire. This is one area where the portfolio behaves like it’s read a finance book. Still, paying extra for factor funds that helped you lag the US market feels a bit like tipping generously for mediocre service. Costs are under control, though — if anything, you’re getting a discount on the privilege of slightly overcomplicating a straightforward index strategy.
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