Almost a perfect index portfolio yet somehow still managing to chase the same tech twice
Report created on Aug 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 60.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00%
This portfolio is basically three funds in a trench coat pretending to be “carefully constructed.” Sixty percent in a total US market fund, 20% in a pure US large‑cap growth tracker, and 20% in total international. It looks diversified at first glance, but under the hood it’s just the US stock market with an extra shot of the same glammy growth names already inside. The structure screams “set and forget,” but also “I really, really like the biggest US growth stocks.” It’s simple and mostly coherent, but the extra growth fund is doing more style tweaking than true diversifying, like ordering two flavors of the same ice cream and calling it a tasting menu.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio turned $1,000 into about $3,993, which sounds heroic until you notice the plain US market walked slightly faster. A 14.91% CAGR vs 15.39% is the investment equivalent of running just behind the friend you copied homework from. Versus the global market, though, this thing looks like a star, outpacing it by over 2% a year. The max drawdown around early 2020 was brutal at -34%, but pretty much in line with broad markets and recovered in a few months. Past data here says “solid, but not magical” and reminds that even this nice backstory is just yesterday’s weather, not a script for the next decade.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is the portfolio’s reality check: the past decade’s near‑15% return parties get downgraded to an 8.19% annualized expectation going forward. Monte Carlo is basically a thousand alternate timelines for the next 15 years, and in most of them this portfolio does fine, not legendary. The “most likely” outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,753, but there’s also a non‑trivial path where you end up barely above break‑even after inflation. The wild range from roughly $978 to $8,047 screams one thing: stocks are fun until volatility decides to cosplay as gravity. None of this is guaranteed; it’s just what the math thinks might happen when the future ignores your feelings.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class breakdown is gloriously boring: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. There’s commitment, and then there’s showing up at a potluck with only hot sauce. This portfolio has absolutely no built‑in cushion from bonds, cash, or alternatives, which means every wobble in equity markets translates directly into your chart looking like a seismograph. That’s fine if the goal is pure growth exposure, but it does mean the “risk score 5/7” isn’t just for decoration. In market panics, there’s nothing here designed to zig while stocks zag; everything just zags together, loudly.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 9%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector exposure is basically a love letter to technology, with tech at 35% and everything else fighting over the leftovers. Financials, industrials, and health care exist, but clearly as supporting characters in the “Big Tech + Friends” show. When over a third of the portfolio stacks into one broad theme, sector risk stops being a footnote and starts being the main plot. If tech has a rough decade instead of another rocket ride, this allocation doesn’t have much of a Plan B. It’s less “balanced economy exposure” and more “I bet the future still looks like the last 10 years of Silicon Valley.”
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this is a USA‑centric worldview: 81% in North America and a token 19% sprinkled around the rest of the planet so the map doesn’t look embarrassing. Europe, Japan, and emerging Asia get single‑digit scraps, which is basically saying “we know you exist, but we’re not that interested.” This “America or pretty much America” tilt rode the US mega‑cap wave nicely, but also ties the outcome heavily to one country’s politics, currency, and market mood. For something claiming to be moderately diversified, it’s very much that person who says they “travel a lot” because they’ve been to two coastal cities.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 1%
The market‑cap profile is classic cap‑weighted: 44% mega‑cap, 30% large, and a politely small 24% in mid/small/micro. Translation: this portfolio takes its marching orders from the giants, with the Apples, NVIDIAs, and Microsofts steering the ship while smaller companies sit in the lifeboats. There’s nothing inherently broken here, but it does mean the supposed “total market” flavor is dominated by the biggest 100 or so names. If small caps ever decide to have a comeback party, this portfolio will show up late and underdressed. It’s comfort food indexing, not exactly adventurous cuisine.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.88%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 5.30%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.78%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.98%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.56%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.27%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.03%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.54%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.07%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 28.40%
The look‑through holdings are basically a who’s‑who of US mega‑cap growth: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice, because of course), Meta, Tesla, and friends. The top positions show up across multiple ETFs, so the overlap is doing a neat trick: turning a three‑fund portfolio into a “Top 10 US Tech and Internet Titans” fan club. NVIDIA and Apple together already run over 11% of the portfolio, before even counting the thousands of smaller names swimming in the background. And remember, this only covers ETF top‑10s; the real overlap is likely worse. Hidden concentration here isn’t subtle — it’s just wearing an index mask.
Factors
Factor exposure is aggressively neutral across the board — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low vol all hovering around 48–53%. In factor‑speak, that’s basically saying “we didn’t pick a lane.” No strong tilt toward cheap stocks, high‑quality names, or trendy winners; just market‑like exposure with a mild lean toward not doing anything interesting. The upside is nothing looks wildly unintentional or self‑sabotaging; the downside is there’s no deliberate edge either. It’s like ordering the default burger: hard to mess up, but you’re definitely not chasing some clever, hidden recipe. If this portfolio behaves oddly, it won’t be because of fancy factor engineering.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 60.00% 60.2% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 20.00% 23.0% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 16.8%
Risk contribution is refreshingly linear but still a little revealing. The total US market fund is 60% of the weight and about 60% of the risk — it’s doing exactly what the label says. The large‑cap growth slice is only 20% of the portfolio but almost 23% of the risk, punching slightly above its weight thanks to its turbocharged growth bias. The international fund is the quiet kid: 20% of the weight, under 17% of the risk. So the riskiest behavior is coming from the extra growth layer piled on top of an already growth‑heavy US core. You could remove that and the drama level would drop a lot, but hey, this report is for roasting, not editing.
Redundant positions
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High correlationSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
The correlation story is basically “copy‑paste with a side of marketing.” The Schwab US Large‑Cap Growth ETF and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF move almost identically, which isn’t exactly shocking given they’re both riding the same mega‑cap US horses. Correlation this high means when one sneezes, the other catches the exact same cold. Instead of true diversification, this is more like watching two channels that show the same movie with slightly different ad breaks. In a crash, both legs go down together; there’s no clever offset here — just double‑down on the same theme with a slightly different logo.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio actually behaves itself: it’s on or very near the curve, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63. That means, for the specific mix of funds used, the risk/return tradeoff is at least mathematically efficient, even if it’s stylistically repetitive. The “optimal” version of these same holdings could push the Sharpe to 0.85 with a bit more risk, and the min‑variance mix dials risk down with only a modest return hit. But given the current point already sits close to the frontier, the sins here aren’t about efficiency. They’re about taste — too much of the same US growth flavor, executed in a technically tidy way.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.18%
Yield sits at a very underwhelming 1.18%, which is exactly what you’d expect from a portfolio allergic to boring, high‑payout names. The growth ETF pulling a 0.40% yield drags down any hope of this being a meaningful income machine. This setup is clearly not designed for dividend hunters; it’s more “please reinvest everything and grow” than “mail me checks.” There’s nothing wrong with that, but it does mean any cash flow coming out of this thing will mostly depend on selling pieces, not clipping coupons. Calling this a dividend strategy would be like calling black coffee a dessert.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are almost suspiciously low at a 0.04% total TER — the sort of fee level that makes active managers cry into their performance reports. You’re basically paying budget airline pricing but somehow not getting hit with baggage fees at the gate. It’s tough to roast this part: the expense ratios are one of the few areas where the portfolio isn’t quietly leaking value. If anything, the only joke is that such a simple, overlapping structure needed three funds to arrive at “cheap US growth with some international crumbs” — but at least you’re not overpaying for the redundancy.
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