Concentrated US stock portfolio with strong tech presence and efficient low cost index structure
Report created on Apr 26, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from four broad stock index ETFs, with half the weight in a US large‑cap index, 40% in US large‑plus‑small caps, and 10% in international stocks. That creates a strong home bias toward one market, while still adding a small global layer. Structurally, this is a simple, buy‑and‑hold style mix: no single fund dominates risk massively, but the core holding clearly sets the tone. Portfolios like this tend to move closely with overall equity markets because they track widely followed indices. The clear structure makes it easier to understand what’s driving returns: mainly US stocks, with a noticeable extra tilt toward the largest growth names through the NASDAQ exposure.
Growth
From late 2020 to April 2026, $1,000 grew to about $2,157, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.98%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths out bumps to show long‑term pace. Over this period, the portfolio slightly lagged the broad US market by 0.25% annually but beat the global market by 1.85% a year. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about ‑27%, a bit deeper than the US market but similar to global stocks. That’s typical for an all‑equity mix. Only 25 days delivered 90% of total gains, showing how a small number of strong days can drive long‑term results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many simulated paths, based on past return and volatility patterns, to estimate a range of future outcomes. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate timelines for the same portfolio. Over 15 years, the median path turns $1,000 into roughly $2,873, with a wide “likely” band between about $1,812 and $4,269. The most optimistic 5% of simulations end above $8,000, while the worst 5% finish around break‑even. The average simulated annual return is 8.32%. These numbers are not promises; they simply show how this risk profile has behaved historically and what that might imply if similar conditions repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: stocks. That gives clear, focused exposure to equity growth, but it also means the portfolio’s ups and downs are tied entirely to stock market cycles. In mixed portfolios, adding bonds or cash usually dampens volatility because they often behave differently from stocks. Here, any diversification benefits come only from differences within equities themselves, not from mixing different asset classes. Historically, all‑stock portfolios can grow faster over long periods but also experience larger and more frequent swings, especially during market stress, because there’s no built‑in stabilizer from other asset classes.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Financials 11%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, technology and related areas dominate at around 35%, with financials, telecom, and consumer segments making up much of the rest. This tech‑heavy tilt is common for US‑centric index portfolios, reflecting the current makeup of major indices. It can be a positive when innovative growth companies lead markets, but it may increase sensitivity to things like interest rate changes or shifts in sentiment toward growth stocks. The presence of sectors like health care, industrials, staples, energy, and utilities rounds out the exposure, which supports diversification across different parts of the economy, even though the overall balance still leans toward growth‑oriented sectors.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio is in North America, with a small slice spread across developed Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia. Compared with a global equity benchmark, which usually holds a much larger share outside North America, this is a pronounced home bias. That has worked well in recent years as US markets have outpaced many others, but it also ties the portfolio heavily to one economy, one currency, and one policy environment. The modest international stake does add some diversification, yet global events affecting the US will still dominate overall performance, simply because of the large weight in that single region.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 34%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 2%
Most holdings are in mega‑cap and large‑cap companies, together around 80% of the portfolio, with some mid‑caps and a small slice of small‑caps. Market capitalization describes company size; larger firms tend to be more established and sometimes less volatile than smaller ones. This size mix is similar to broad US index compositions, which is a sign the portfolio is aligned with standard benchmarks. The modest mid‑ and small‑cap exposure adds some extra growth potential and differentiation, since smaller companies don’t always move in lockstep with giants, though the big names still dominate the portfolio’s overall behavior.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 5.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.73%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.47%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.24%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 33.44%
Looking through to the underlying holdings, the top exposures are well‑known US mega‑caps like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway. Several of these show up across multiple ETFs, creating overlap that boosts their combined weight: NVIDIA alone totals nearly 7%, and Apple almost 6%. Because only ETF top‑10s are visible, actual overlap may be a bit higher. This kind of concentration in a handful of large companies is typical for modern index funds, but it means portfolio performance is strongly influenced by how these specific giants do, even though you only hold broad‑market ETFs.
Factors
Factor exposure, which measures tilts toward characteristics like value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, is broadly neutral across the board here. Neutral means the portfolio looks a lot like the overall market on these dimensions, rather than leaning hard into any particular style. For example, there’s no strong bias toward cheap “value” shares or high‑dividend “yield” stocks, nor a big tilt toward smaller companies. In practice, this suggests the portfolio’s return patterns should be largely driven by general equity market moves instead of distinct factor cycles, which keeps behavior straightforward and benchmark‑like over time.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 47.9% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 24.7% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 19.8% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 7.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF adds to total portfolio volatility, which can differ from its weight. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is half the portfolio and contributes about 48% of risk, very close to proportional. The total US market ETF also lines up closely with its weight. The NASDAQ 100 stands out a bit: at 20% weight, it contributes nearly 25% of risk, indicating it’s somewhat more volatile than the others. The international ETF actually contributes less risk than its 10% share. Overall, the top three funds make up over 92% of risk, so they drive almost all day‑to‑day movement.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The correlation data shows that the S&P 500 ETF and the total US stock market ETF move almost identically. Correlation measures how often assets move together; a value close to 1 means they tend to rise and fall in sync. This is expected because both track very broad US markets with significant overlap in holdings. While holding both can slightly increase exposure to smaller companies, it does not add much diversification in terms of how the portfolio behaves in downturns. Instead, most diversification here comes from the mix of US versus international stocks and from the NASDAQ‑heavy growth slice.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares risk and return for different weightings of these same four ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.67, a measure of return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate. The optimal mix on this frontier has a higher Sharpe (0.88) with slightly lower risk and similar return, and the minimum‑variance mix is also relatively efficient. The analysis notes the current portfolio already sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning its risk/return trade‑off is strong given the chosen building blocks. In other words, the existing allocation makes effective use of these specific funds.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.15%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.15%, with the international ETF offering the highest yield among the four. Dividend yield is the income paid out by holdings each year as a percentage of their price. In this portfolio, most of the expected return historically has come from price growth rather than dividends, which matches its growth‑oriented, tech‑tilted profile. While a 1–2% yield can still contribute meaningfully over long periods when reinvested, income here is clearly a secondary feature. This aligns with many modern broad‑market US indices, where buybacks have become more common than high cash payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.06%, which is impressively low. TER represents the annual fee charged by the funds as a percentage of invested assets, quietly deducted inside the ETFs. For context, many active funds charge ten times as much or more. Low costs matter because they are one of the few things investors can reliably control, and small differences compound significantly over decades. Here, the fee structure supports better long‑term performance by leaving more of the portfolio’s gross returns in place. This is a clear structural strength and aligns well with best practices for cost‑efficient investing.
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