Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and historically high returns but limited diversification
Report created on Aug 10, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 30.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 20.00% -
XL Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
XLK - US81369Y8030 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00%
This portfolio is made up of five US-focused equity ETFs, so it is 100% in stocks with no bonds or cash buffers. Most of the allocation sits in broad or style-based large-cap US funds, with a meaningful 30% slice in a momentum strategy and 20% in a pure technology sector fund. A smaller 10% allocation goes to a US small-cap value ETF, adding exposure to smaller, cheaper companies. Structurally, this is a concentrated growth-oriented mix, leaning heavily on US large-cap growth and tech-related themes, with just one fund explicitly targeting smaller and value-oriented stocks. That composition naturally leads to higher volatility and more sensitivity to equity market cycles than a more mixed-asset portfolio.
Growth
From late 2020 to August 2026, $1,000 invested in this portfolio grew to about $2,811, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.53%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. Over the same period, the US market returned 16.09% annually and the global market 13.94%, so this portfolio outpaced both quite clearly. The trade-off is a max drawdown of -26.01%, meaning at one point it was about a quarter below its peak. It also needed 14 months to fully recover. Strong returns have rewarded the growth tilt, but the depth and duration of drawdowns shows meaningful risk along the way.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks forward 15 years by simulating 1,000 alternative futures using past return and volatility patterns. Think of it as running many “what if?” scenarios based on the historical behaviour of similar assets, not as a prediction. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,776, with a likely middle range between roughly $1,838 and $4,072. The very wide possible range ($1,009 to $7,625) highlights how uncertain long-term outcomes can be. The average simulated annual return of 7.92% is materially lower than the recent 19.53% CAGR, underlining that past high returns are not assumed to continue at the same pace indefinitely.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in equities, with 100% allocated to stocks and 0% to bonds, cash, or alternatives. Asset classes are the big “buckets” — like stocks, bonds, and real estate — that tend to behave differently in various economic conditions. A single-asset-class portfolio usually experiences sharper ups and downs because there is no stabilising component that might zig when stocks zag. Compared to a more mixed stock-and-bond allocation, this construction aims entirely at equity growth and accepts equity-level risk. Historically, that can mean strong returns over long periods but deeper drawdowns and more emotional swings in turbulent markets.
Sectors
- Technology 55%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Financials 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Health Care 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is heavily tilted, with technology at 55%, well above its weight in broad US or global indices. Other sectors appear in single digits, with telecommunications, industrials, financials, consumer areas, health care, energy, utilities, and real estate all relatively small. Sector weights matter because different parts of the economy react differently to interest rates, regulation, and business cycles. A tech-heavy portfolio like this often benefits when growth stocks and innovation themes are in favour, but it can be more volatile when rates rise or sentiment turns against high-growth names. The strong tech emphasis is a clear driver of both past outperformance and concentration risk.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely tied to North America, with about 99% exposure there. Geography affects not just currencies but also economic drivers, regulation, and political risk. A broad global equity benchmark usually spreads exposure across North America, Europe, and Asia, with significant weights outside the US. In contrast, this portfolio’s returns are strongly linked to the US economy, US corporate earnings, and the US dollar. That concentration can be a strength when US markets lead global performance, as they often have in recent years, but it also means the portfolio captures little of whatever is happening in other major regions.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 42%
- Large-cap 36%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 5%
By market capitalisation, the portfolio leans heavily into larger companies, with around 42% in mega-caps and 36% in large-caps. Mid-caps are a modest 11%, while small- and micro-caps together make up about 10%. Market cap mix affects how sensitive a portfolio is to different parts of the corporate landscape: mega-caps tend to be more stable and more widely researched, whereas smaller companies can be more volatile but sometimes provide stronger growth or value opportunities. The small allocation to small and micro-cap stocks comes mainly from the dedicated small-cap value ETF, slightly diversifying the size profile but leaving the overall character very much large-cap driven.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 5.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 5.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.69%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.23%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.66%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.52%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Top 10 total 38.61%
Looking through the ETFs to their top holdings, a handful of big tech and semiconductor names stand out. NVIDIA alone represents about 8.95% of the total portfolio, with Micron, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, AMD, Alphabet (both share classes), Amazon, and Lam Research also prominent. These overlapping positions occur because multiple ETFs own the same large companies at high weights. Overlap means the true exposure to these names is higher than any single fund’s weight suggests, and it may even be understated here because only the top-10 ETF holdings are included. This hidden concentration reinforces the portfolio’s dependence on a small group of leading tech-related companies.
Factors
Factor exposure across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility sits mostly in the “neutral” band, close to market-like levels. Factor exposure describes how much the portfolio leans into specific characteristics that research has linked to returns — like favouring cheap stocks (value) or stable ones (low volatility). The only notable tilt here is yield, which is at 36%, indicating a mild lean away from high-dividend stocks. That’s consistent with a growth and tech-oriented equity mix, where companies often reinvest profits rather than pay large dividends. Overall, factor balance is relatively even, with no aggressive bet on classic factor styles outside that lower yield tilt.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 30.00% 29.1% -
Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
Weight: 20.00% 24.5% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.9% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 16.3% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the top three funds — S&P 500 Momentum, NASDAQ 100, and the Technology sector ETF — make up 70% of the weight but about 75.5% of total risk. The tech sector ETF is especially notable, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.23, meaning it contributes more volatility than its 20% share might imply. In contrast, the broad Vanguard S&P 500 and the small-cap value fund contribute slightly less risk than their weights. This pattern underlines that risk is concentrated in the growth and tech-tilted slices.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFTechnology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
The correlation data highlight that the NASDAQ 100 ETF and the Technology sector ETF have moved almost identically historically. Correlation measures how often two investments move together: a value close to 1 means they usually go up and down in tandem, while 0 means they move independently. When two holdings are highly correlated and both significant in size, they provide less diversification than their number suggests. In this portfolio, having both a NASDAQ 100 fund and a tech sector fund creates a cluster of very similar behaviour, especially during tech-led rallies or selloffs. That reinforces both the growth potential and the vulnerability to tech-specific shocks.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart plots this portfolio against an efficient frontier built from the same five ETFs. The current mix has a Sharpe ratio of 0.82, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk-free rate. The optimal combination of these ETFs reaches a Sharpe of 1.06, while the minimum-variance mix has 0.93, meaning both offer better risk-adjusted trade-offs. The portfolio also sits about 1.58 percentage points below the frontier at its current risk level, indicating it is not using these holdings in the most efficient proportions. In plain terms, reweighting the same components could historically have delivered similar or higher returns with less volatility.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.69%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is about 0.69%, which is low compared with broad US equity averages that often sit closer to 1.5–2%. Yield is simply the annual cash payout as a percentage of the current investment value. Most of the funds here, especially the NASDAQ 100 and Technology sector ETFs, focus on companies that tend to reinvest earnings rather than pay large dividends, while the small-cap value ETF contributes a modestly higher 1.2% yield. With this structure, most of the return historically has come from price growth rather than income. That profile fits a growth-oriented equity mix that is less about cash flows today and more about potential capital appreciation.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.12%
Weighted average costs, measured by the total expense ratio (TER), come to about 0.12% per year across the full portfolio. TER is the annual fee charged by each fund as a percentage of your investment, quietly deducted inside the fund. This level is impressively low for a mix that includes smart-beta strategies like momentum and small-cap value, which often cost more. Low ongoing costs mean less performance drag over time and more of the gross return staying with the investor. Relative to typical actively managed funds, this fee level aligns well with cost-efficient investing practices and provides a solid structural advantage for long-term compounding.
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