Momentum and small value equity blend with strong US tilt and fully invested stock exposure
Report created on Sep 25, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 60.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
ID Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
IDMO - US46138E2220 10.00%
This portfolio is a focused mix of four equity ETFs, all invested in stocks with no bonds or cash. The largest piece is a US large-cap momentum fund at 60%, supported by 20% in US small-cap value, 10% in international small-cap value, and 10% in international developed-market momentum. So the core idea is combining two styles: momentum (recent winners) and small-cap value (cheaper, smaller companies), with a clear emphasis on US markets. Structurally, this means the portfolio is designed for growth and accepts equity-level ups and downs. The allocation is simple and intentional rather than scattered, which makes it easier to understand what is driving returns and risk over time.
Growth
From late 2019 to late 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,502. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.71%, which is like averaging that gain every year on a road trip, even if the route had bumps. Over the same period, the US market returned 16.13% and the global market 13.65%, so this mix outpaced both by a meaningful margin. The max drawdown, a peak-to-trough drop, was about -34.9%, similar to the broad markets during early 2020. Returns were concentrated in just 31 days that made up 90% of gains, underlining how missing a handful of strong days can heavily affect long-term results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past return and volatility patterns to simulate 1,000 possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. Think of it as rolling the dice many times based on historical behavior, not as a prediction. The median outcome is about $2,656, with a “likely” middle band between roughly $1,796 and $4,161, and a wider 5–95% range from about $1,065 to $7,180. Across all simulations, the average annualized return is 7.85%, with about 74% of scenarios ending positive. These ranges highlight uncertainty: even with the same starting point and strategy, future paths can vary a lot, and past data cannot guarantee similar results.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: stocks. There are no bonds, cash-alternatives, or other diversifiers like real estate funds or commodities. That keeps the risk/return profile firmly in the “growth” camp, where long-term return potential tends to be higher but short‑term swings can be larger. Within equities, though, there is diversification across company sizes, styles (momentum and value), and regions. Compared with a more traditional multi‑asset mix that includes bonds, this portfolio is likely to move more sharply during market stress but also fully participates in equity upswings. The 100% equity stance is a clear structural choice and aligns with the reported higher risk score.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Financials 15%
- Industrials 14%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
On a sector level, the portfolio is clearly tilted toward technology at 35%, with financials and industrials making up sizeable secondary chunks. The rest is spread across energy, telecom, health care, basic materials, consumer sectors, utilities, and real estate in smaller slices. Compared with broad global benchmarks, this tech emphasis stands out and is consistent with the momentum exposure, since recent winners have often been tech‑related names. Sector tilts like this can amplify cycles: for example, tech-heavy allocations may benefit strongly from innovation and growth periods, but they can be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when sentiment turns against high‑growth companies.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Japan 5%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is dominated by North America at 82%, with most of the remainder in developed markets like Europe and Japan and only very small slices elsewhere. Relative to a world market index, which spreads more across many countries, this is a pronounced US tilt. That concentration has helped over the last decade, when US markets have generally outperformed many other regions. The flip side is that portfolio fortunes are closely tied to the US economy, policy, and currency. International holdings add some diversification, but global events that heavily affect US stocks will likely show up strongly here, simply because of the large North American share.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 34%
- Mega-cap 29%
- Small-cap 13%
- Mid-cap 13%
- Micro-cap 11%
Market‑cap exposure is quite balanced across size buckets: about 29% in mega‑caps, 34% in large‑caps, and the rest spread fairly evenly across mid‑, small‑, and even micro‑caps. This is different from many broad indices, which are heavily dominated by the very largest companies. The explicit allocations to small‑cap value introduce meaningful exposure to smaller, often more locally focused businesses. Smaller companies can be more volatile but have historically offered periods of strong performance. This mix means the portfolio is not just riding on a few giants; it participates in both the stability of large firms and the higher risk‑higher potential return characteristics of smaller ones.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 5.79%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 5.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 2.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
SN Sandisk Corp 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 31.17%
Looking through ETF top‑10 holdings, a few names show up as meaningful indirect exposures, like Micron, Apple, AMD, Intel, and Alphabet. For example, Micron is about 5.8% of the portfolio via ETFs, and Apple around 5.4%. Several of these holdings cluster in similar tech themes, which adds a layer of hidden concentration beyond the sector weights alone. Overlap might actually be higher than what is visible, since only top‑10 ETF positions are captured, so this is a partial view. Still, it signals that some individual companies drive a noticeable chunk of risk and return, even though they do not appear as direct, single‑stock positions in the account.
Factors
Factor exposure shows two clear tilts: high value (62%) and high momentum (65%), where 50% is considered market‑average. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of a portfolio that research links to long‑term return and risk patterns. The value tilt comes from the small‑cap value funds, emphasizing companies trading at cheaper valuations. The momentum tilt reflects funds that focus on stocks with strong recent performance. Historically, these two factors can behave very differently over time, sometimes helping at the same time, sometimes offsetting each other. The other factors—size, quality, yield, and low volatility—are closer to neutral, meaning they broadly resemble the wider equity market’s characteristics.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 60.00% 62.9% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.3% -
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.3% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.6%
Risk contribution looks at how much each ETF adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 Momentum ETF is 60% of assets but contributes about 63% of risk, roughly in line with its size but still clearly the dominant driver. The US small‑cap value ETF is 20% of assets and about 21% of risk, while each 10% international position contributes less than 10% of total risk. Overall, the top three funds account for over 92% of portfolio risk. This shows that while the portfolio has four holdings, day‑to‑day behavior is heavily shaped by the large US momentum and small‑cap exposures.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares different ways of weighting the same four ETFs to find the best trade‑offs between risk and return. The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk‑adjusted return relative to a risk‑free rate, is 0.78 for the current portfolio. The optimal mix using only these holdings has a Sharpe of 0.96, and the minimum‑variance mix sits at 0.87. Importantly, the report notes that the current allocation lies on or very close to the efficient frontier. That means, given these four ingredients, the existing weights already form an efficient combination for this risk level, with limited room for improvement purely from reweighting between them.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.10%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.90%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.38%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.38%, which is relatively modest, especially compared with many income‑oriented strategies. Individual funds vary: the international momentum ETF has a yield around 3.9%, while the US momentum ETF yields just 0.7%. Dividends are cash payments companies make from profits, and over long periods they can be a significant part of total return. In this case, most of the portfolio’s historical gains have come from price appreciation rather than income. That’s consistent with the growth and factor profile: momentum and small‑cap value approaches often focus more on capital gains potential than on generating a high level of regular cash payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.19%
The total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio averages about 0.19% per year, based on the weighted costs of each ETF. TER is like a yearly service fee charged by the funds, taken out before returns reach the investor. The range across holdings is 0.13% to 0.36%, which is typical for factor‑tilted and actively managed rules‑based ETFs. In the context of equity strategies, a 0.19% blended cost is impressively low and supports better long‑term compounding, because less performance is lost to fees each year. Over many years, keeping expenses at this kind of level can meaningfully help the gap between gross market returns and what actually lands in the account.
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