Portfolio report
Small cap value obsession wearing a dividend mask with a token safety blanket on the side
Report created on Oct 2, 2026The briefing
What stands out
Over half the risk and return here lives and dies with one international small-cap value fund. If that style goes out of favor for a decade, the whole portfolio is basically cosplaying as “stuck in the wrong era” while everything else moves on.
The historical 16%+ returns make this setup look like a genius move, but the Monte Carlo view cuts that dream in half. Don’t be shocked if the next 15 years look more like $2,700 than a repeat of the recent $2,641 joyride in just six.
The factor profile screams high value high yield high low-vol while market-cap exposure screams “mid and small caps everywhere.” That combo can feel wonderfully contrarian in some cycles and painfully off-trend when flashy growth and giants hog the scoreboard.
Highlights from the assessment. Explore the analysis below for context and assumptions.
Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
5/5
The starting point
Positions
-
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 55.86% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 18.23% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 15.44% -
SG iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
SGOV - US46436E7186 10.47%
This portfolio looks like someone started with “I love cheap small foreign stocks,” panicked halfway through, and then duct-taped on a couple of comforting US wrappers and a T‑bill pillow. Over half the money is riding on one niche factor fund, with everything else playing clear backup singer. For something labeled “balanced,” the actual structure is more “one big bet plus three chaperones.” It’s technically diversified across funds, but structurally dominated by a single worldview. When one holding past 50% weight sets the tone, the others are mostly decoration, not genuine diversification.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done annoyingly well, which is probably reinforcing some dangerous confidence. A 16.59% CAGR since 2020 roughly matched US stocks and comfortably beat global stocks, all while having a slightly smaller drawdown than both. That’s like driving 5 mph slower and still arriving at the same time. But this is a short, weird period dominated by a handful of freak events and style swings. Past performance is basically yesterday’s weather report: useful context, terrible crystal ball. The portfolio got rewarded for its quirks, but there’s zero guarantee the market keeps handing out extra credit for the same behavior.
Drawdowns
- Worst fall 01/12/2022 – 09/27/2022 -22.9%
- Time from the high to the bottom 258 days
- Time back to the previous high 12/19/2023 448 days
- Today, below the last high -3.3%
- Worst fall, US Market -24.5%
- Worst fall, Global Market -26.4%
Benchmarks over the same dates, for reference only.
Worst falls
- 01/12/2022 – 09/27/2022 Back at the high after 706 days -22.9%
- 03/19/2025 – 04/08/2025 Back at the high after 51 days -12.5%
- 02/27/2026 – 03/20/2026 Back at the high after 68 days -10.1%
- 06/08/2020 – 06/11/2020 Back at the high after 63 days -7.6%
- 07/16/2024 – 08/05/2024 Back at the high after 34 days -6.8%
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections are the buzzkill friend at the party. Instead of replaying the glory years, they simulate thousands of alternate futures based on volatility and returns, like spinning a financial roulette wheel 1,000 times. Median outcome: $1,000 grows to about $2,706 in 15 years, which is solid but nowhere near the recent joyride. The possible range from roughly $1,077 to $7,209 screams “anything from meh to great,” with a 75.6% chance of ending higher than today. Translation: this portfolio has a decent edge, but the market absolutely reserves the right to be rude for long stretches.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- Cash 10%
On paper, this is “balanced.” In reality, it’s 90% stocks and 10% very short-term Treasuries pretending to be adult supervision. That’s not so much asset allocation as “all-in on risk assets, with a coffee break in cash-like bonds.” The T‑bill slice does act as a genuine volatility dampener and dry powder, but it’s not big enough to rewrite the portfolio’s personality. This is an equity-driven machine with a tiny safety net, not some carefully engineered multi-asset masterpiece. The label says balanced; the actual behavior will be very much driven by stock markets doing whatever they feel like.
Sectors
- Industrials 15%
- Basic Materials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Technology 12%
- Financials 11%
- Cash 10%
- Energy 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, this thing is proudly weird compared to a plain-vanilla global index. Big tilts into industrials, basic materials, and energy shout “old-economy value” rather than sleek growth darlings. Tech is there, but not in the “bow down to Silicon Valley” way most portfolios accidentally end up with. That makes the portfolio more tied to economic cycles, pricing power, and global trade than to app downloads and ad clicks. It’s a conscious bet that boring companies and cyclical businesses are mispriced. When value works, this profile looks brave. When growth runs the show, it just looks stubborn.
Regions
- North America 40%
- Europe Developed 21%
- Japan 19%
- Cash 10%
- Australasia 5%
- Africa/Middle East 3%
- Asia Developed 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this portfolio actually left home, which already puts it ahead of the classic “US or nothing” setup. Only about 40% is in North America, with chunky allocations to developed Europe and Japan and smaller bits sprinkled across the rest of the developed world and a sliver in Africa/Middle East. It’s a rare case where the diversification score isn’t just marketing fluff. But this global spread is married to small-cap value, so it’s not the classic “own the world and chill” strategy. It’s more “own the world’s ignored corners and hope the odds eventually notice.”
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 38%
- Small-cap 24%
- Large-cap 16%
- Mega-cap 7%
- Micro-cap 3%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The market cap breakdown screams “index? never heard of her.” Mid-caps and small-caps together dominate, with megacaps as a side dish instead of the main course. That’s the opposite of how most broad markets work, where giants sit on the throne and everyone else fights over scraps. This tilt can be powerful when smaller companies are in favor, but it also means more noise, bumpier returns, and a higher chance some holdings quietly disappear instead of heroically compounding. The portfolio isn’t riding on the usual celebrity stocks to carry it; it’s betting the understudies steal the show.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 1.25%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 1.15%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
XT BlackRock Cash Funds Treasury SL Agency 0.77%
Part of fund(s):- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
-
QC Qualcomm Incorporated 0.71%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 0.71%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
AT AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft 0.70%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
PG Procter & Gamble Company 0.65%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
KO The Coca-Cola Company 0.64%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-
MR Merck & Company Inc 0.63%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- Top 10 total 8.16%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through holdings tell a funny story: despite the small-cap value branding, the familiar megacap suspects still sneak in through the side door. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Coke, P&G — all show up, but in tiny doses, mostly courtesy of the total-market and dividend ETFs. Overlap is modest, and the coverage is only 17%, so the real hidden concentration is likely in nameless small-cap value names that don’t make top‑10 lists. The actual risk isn’t overexposure to one famous stock; it’s overexposure to one style and segment of the market most people couldn’t list if you paid them.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, this portfolio isn’t shy about its personality. High value, high yield, and high low-volatility exposure is basically “cheap, pays you, and not (supposed to be) insanely jumpy.” Size, momentum, and quality sit in neutral territory, which means the portfolio doesn’t double down on trendy winners or polished mega‑brands. This combo says: “I want calm, unloved cash-generators.” But high value plus high yield can sometimes mean “cheap for a reason,” and low-vol doesn’t magically stop markets from punching everything at once. Factor exposure is like the ingredient list on junk food: better to know what’s in there before you’re surprised by the aftertaste.
Risk contribution
-
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 55.86% 67.4% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 18.23% 19.4% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 15.44% 13.3% -
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
Weight: 10.47% 0.0%
Risk contribution exposes who’s actually driving the drama, and here the Avantis international small-cap value fund is clearly the main character. At 55.86% weight but 67.35% of total risk, it’s punching above its already massive size. The other equity funds contribute roughly in line with their weight, while the T‑bill ETF is basically emotional support furniture with 0% risk. The top three positions cause essentially all the volatility, but really it’s mostly one. On paper this looks like a four-fund portfolio; in practice it’s a one-fund conviction bet dressed up with three accessories.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio actually behaves like it’s done some homework. Its Sharpe ratio of 0.86 sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning given these exact ingredients, the mixing isn’t dumb. The optimizer says a different blend could squeeze out slightly higher returns at slightly higher risk, but we’re not talking night and day. Efficient frontier is just a fancy way of asking, “Are you getting enough expected return for the rollercoaster you’re riding?” Here, the answer is grudgingly yes. The inefficiency isn’t in the math; it’s in the big thematic bets the math faithfully implements.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.20%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.20%
- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 3.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.84%
A 2.84% yield is the financial equivalent of “I brought snacks, but not a full meal.” The dividend ETF and the international value fund both kick out around 3.2%, and even the T‑bill ETF chips in with a short-term yield, while the total US market quietly waters the average down. This isn’t a hardcore income machine, but it clearly cares about getting paid along the way. The risk is assuming those payouts are some kind of safety feature. Dividends can get cut, prices still move, and total return still does most of the heavy lifting. The cash flow is a perk, not a shield.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 0.07%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.22%
Costs here are pleasantly boring, which almost feels like an error. A blended TER of 0.22% is higher than a pure dirt-cheap index setup, but not remotely offensive given the factor tilt and active-ish small-cap value strategy at the core. The supporting cast from Vanguard and Schwab are carrying their weight at near-basement pricing, effectively subsidizing the more expensive star fund. Fees aren’t the villain in this story; they’re more like background characters. If anything, the cost structure is the most conventional, least roasty part of the portfolio — which, honestly, is a nice change from the rest of the quirks.
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