Momentum chasing US-only thrill ride pretending to be a sensible diversified portfolio
Report created on Jun 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
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SP State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
SPYM - US78464A8541 60.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00%
This portfolio is three ETFs in a trench coat: plain S&P 500, small-cap value, and pure momentum. It looks “diversified” on the surface, but it’s basically a US stock laboratory experiment with factor knobs turned up. The 60% in a broad index tries to look responsible while the 40% is split between the junk drawer of small-cap value and a momentum rocket strapped on top. Structurally, it’s simple enough, but the simplicity hides how aggressively it leans into one market and style. The result: not chaos, but definitely a portfolio that’s either going to look brilliant or foolish depending entirely on the next cycle.
Growth
One or more local-currency benchmark funds are unavailable for this report.
Historically, this thing has absolutely flown: $1,000 turning into $3,018 with a 17.94% CAGR versus 13.76% for the global market. That’s not “a little better”; that’s performance with an ego. The max drawdown of -35.6% was only slightly worse than the global market’s -33.5%, so the pain was pretty standard, just with more gain attached. But remember, CAGR is like your bragging-rights average speed on a road trip — it ignores that you maybe drove through a hurricane to get there. Past data is yesterday’s weather: useful, but no guarantee the next storm treats momentum and small value this kindly.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation basically says, “Congrats, you built a thrill ride, not a savings account.” Monte Carlo just runs thousands of alternate reality timelines for your portfolio to see how often things go great or go sideways. Median outcome is $2,644 from $1,000 over 15 years — solid, but noticeably tamer than the backward-looking 18% fantasy. The likely range runs from “meh” at $1,734 to “I’m a genius” at $4,256, with a non-trivial shot of just ending roughly where you started. Translation: this portfolio is set up for decently rewarding chaos, not smooth compounding.
Asset classes
- No data 60%
- Stocks 40%
On the asset-class screen, 60% sits in “No data” and 40% shows up as stocks. Which is… unhelpful. What it definitely is not: a balanced mix of anything. There’s no sign of bonds, real assets, or cash buffers here — just a big shrug plus some labeled equities. Think of it like a restaurant menu where 60% of the dishes are “mystery entrée” and 40% say “definitely meat.” You know enough to realize it’s not vegan, but not enough to call it well-rounded. Whatever the missing data hides, the visible piece already screams pure growth-chasing equity focus.
Sectors
- Technology 13%
- Financials 6%
- Industrials 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Energy 4%
- Telecommunications 2%
- Health Care 2%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, this is a pretty textbook “we like growth and drama” profile. Technology leads at 13%, with financials and industrials following, and everything else sprinkled in tiny amounts to look respectable. There’s no single ultra-absurd sector bet, but it clearly leans toward the parts of the market that move fast and break things. The mix fits the momentum and US-equity story: not absurdly concentrated, but absolutely not a calm, boring blend either. It’s basically the stock-market equivalent of a high-caffeine diet — survivable, but expect some shaking when things get volatile.
Regions
- North America 39%
Geographically, the portfolio might as well have said “World? Never heard of her.” North America is 39% of what’s visible, and the rest is buried under missing data, but given the tickers, this is functionally a US monoculture. It’s an America-or-bust approach dressed up as sophistication. Ignoring the rest of the globe is like only ever eating at one restaurant chain: sure, you know the menu, but you’re missing a lot of flavors. When the US leads, this looks smart. When it lags, this looks like someone confused “home bias” with “only option.”
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 10%
- Small-cap 10%
- Micro-cap 10%
- Mega-cap 8%
- Mid-cap 2%
The market-cap breakdown looks like a random-number generator: 10% large-cap, 10% small-cap, 10% micro-cap, 8% mega-cap, 2% mid-cap. That’s less a coherent design and more a Picasso painting of size exposure. With a big S&P 500 core plus a dedicated US small-cap value ETF, you’ve unintentionally built a barbell of giant names on one end and tiny gremlins on the other, with mid-caps wondering what they did wrong. This creates a portfolio that can get yanked around by both huge index heavyweights and illiquid small names, which is entertaining but not exactly tranquil.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.87%
Part of fund(s):- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.51%
Part of fund(s):- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.30%
Part of fund(s):- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.04%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
- Top 10 total 29.04%
Look-through holdings reveal the usual megacap suspects doing their celebrity cameo: NVIDIA at 6.41%, Apple at 3.87%, then Broadcom, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and friends. You don’t hold anything directly, but you’ve basically built a shrine to the same handful of companies via multiple funds. Overlap is likely worse than it looks because only top-10 ETF holdings are shown. So while the portfolio pretends to be three separate ideas, the underlying reality is “buy US large-cap growth, then sprinkle in factor-flavored seasoning and hope the duplication doesn’t bite when these names finally stumble.”
Factors
Factor exposure is where this portfolio shows its personality: high value tilt at 61%, while size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all hover around neutral. So on paper, you’ve mashed together a boring cap-weight index, a small-cap value fund, and a momentum ETF… yet the net factor profile is surprisingly middle-of-the-road except for value. It’s like ordering a crazy custom burger and ending up with something almost standard. The mild value tilt hints at a quiet bet on cheaper names, but the overall factor mix is more accidental compromise than sharp, deliberate design.
Risk contribution
-
State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
Weight: 60.00% 56.8% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 23.5% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 19.7%
Risk contribution says the big S&P 500 holding is the main adult in the room: 60% weight, about 57% of total risk. The small-cap value slice is only 20% by weight but contributes over 23% of the volatility — the loudest 20% at the party. The momentum slice pretty much pulls its weight one-for-one. Nothing here is catastrophically out of line, but that small-cap value ETF is clearly punching above its size in how much it shakes the portfolio. It’s the position that amplifies the drama when markets wobble, even though it’s not the biggest line item.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, the portfolio is very much “not living its best life.” With a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 at 20.9% risk, it sits about 1.7 percentage points below what could be achieved just by rearranging the same three funds. The optimal mix (Sharpe 0.99) is both higher return and only slightly riskier, while the minimum-variance version actually has better risk-adjusted returns than the current setup. In other words, this isn’t a bad set of ingredients — it’s just a clumsy recipe. The frontier is politely screaming that the current weights are leaving performance on the table.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.06%
Dividend yield at 1.06% is basically pocket lint. The small-cap value ETF tries to look responsible at 1.6%, but the rest of the lineup is firmly in the “we’re here for price action, not payouts” camp. This portfolio clearly doesn’t care about income; it wants growth, multiples, and vibes. That’s fine as long as no one pretends this is some kind of income strategy. Relying on these dividends for cash flow would be like planning to live off free samples at Costco: technically possible on rare days, but not a serious long-term plan.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are actually impressively low, with a total TER of 0.08%. For a portfolio this spicy, the fee drag is almost suspiciously reasonable. The small-cap value fund at 0.25% is the priciest piece, but even that is far from outrageous. If anything, the funniest part is that such a high-octane, performance-chasing setup is being run at budget pricing. Fees are not the villain here; if returns disappoint going forward, it won’t be because of costs. You can’t blame the house when you bought the roller coaster ticket at a discount.
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