Concentrated US stock portfolio with strong large cap tilt and balanced growth and dividend focus
Report created on Jun 29, 2024Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
IV iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
IVW - US4642873099 25.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 25.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 25.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 13.00% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 12.00%
This portfolio is a five‑ETF mix that is 100% in stocks, with everything in broad equity index funds. Three core ETFs each hold 25% and track the S&P 500 growth segment, the full S&P 500, and the total US stock market. Around a quarter of the portfolio then tilts away from pure market cap exposure: 13% goes to a US dividend equity ETF and 12% to an emerging markets ETF. Structurally, this is a fairly simple, equity‑only setup with a clear bias to US large companies and a small satellite exposure to higher‑yielding and emerging market stocks. The combination gives both broad market coverage and a couple of targeted tilts.
Growth
From 2016 to mid‑2026, a hypothetical $1,000 invested here grew to about $4,000. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.93%, which means the portfolio roughly averaged that percentage gain each year, smoothing out ups and downs. Over the same period, it slightly lagged the US market benchmark by 0.49% per year but beat the global market by 2.18% per year. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about ‑33% during early 2020, very similar to the benchmarks. Historically, this has behaved a lot like a broad US equity fund: strong long‑run growth, big but relatively standard equity drawdowns, and no extreme deviations from the US market.
Projection
The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which basically means running thousands of “what if” paths using historical return and volatility patterns, then seeing the range of possible outcomes. In these simulations, $1,000 over 15 years most often lands around $2,728, with a middle “likely” range from roughly $1,758 to $4,172. Extreme scenarios run from almost no growth to very strong compounding. The average simulated annual return comes out around 7.95%. This is a statistical model, not a prediction: it assumes the future will rhyme with the past in terms of average returns and ups and downs, which might not hold, especially over shorter periods or in very unusual markets.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. That creates a straightforward growth‑oriented structure, where returns mainly come from company earnings and share price movements rather than interest payments or rent. Being 100% in equities usually means more sensitivity to market swings than a mix that includes bonds, which tend to act as shock absorbers. Compared with a typical global multi‑asset benchmark that mixes stocks and bonds, this portfolio will likely show higher volatility and drawdowns but also higher long‑term return potential. The absence of other asset classes means diversification is happening only within equities, not across fundamentally different types of investments.
Sectors
- Technology 37%
- Financials 12%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Health Care 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, the portfolio leans heavily toward technology at 37%, with financials, telecommunications, health care, and consumer discretionary making up much of the rest. This kind of tech‑heavy profile is common in US‑centric equity portfolios because large tech and platform companies dominate market indices. A high allocation here can benefit from innovation and growth trends but may be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when markets rotate toward more cyclical or defensive areas. The remaining exposure across industrials, consumer staples, energy, and utilities provides some balance, but technology clearly drives a big chunk of the portfolio’s behavior. This alignment with modern benchmarks gives broad economic exposure while still reflecting current market leadership.
Regions
- North America 88%
- Asia Emerging 6%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, about 88% of the portfolio sits in North America, with the rest spread mainly across emerging and developed Asia plus very small slices in Africa/Middle East and Latin America. This is more US‑tilted than a typical global index, where the US is large but not close to 90%. The emerging markets ETF introduces some diversification into faster‑growing but more volatile regions, though at 12% it doesn’t dominate overall behavior. A strong home‑country focus has worked well over the last decade thanks to US market strength, and the allocation here aligns with that reality. At the same time, it means currency and economic exposure is still heavily tied to the US cycle rather than being globally balanced.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, 44% of the portfolio is in mega‑cap stocks and 35% in large caps, with only about 21% combined in mid, small, and micro caps. This mirrors how US indices are constructed: the biggest companies naturally carry more weight. A strong mega‑cap tilt often means more stability in day‑to‑day moves compared to a small‑cap‑heavy portfolio, since giant companies usually have more diversified revenues and established businesses. The smaller slice in mid/small/micro caps introduces some exposure to companies earlier in their growth journeys, which can add both opportunity and volatility. Overall, this size mix is very much in line with mainstream US equity benchmarks and supports market‑like behavior rather than a niche style bet.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.16%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.78%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.77%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.73%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.61%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.03%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
- Top 10 total 32.48%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of large US technology and platform companies show up multiple times, creating hidden concentration. NVIDIA alone makes up about 7.16% of the overall look‑through exposure, with Apple and Microsoft each close to 4.8%. Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta also appear prominently. Because these names sit in the top 10 of several funds, their combined influence is bigger than any single ETF weight might suggest. This overlap is only measured from the funds’ top‑10 lists, so actual concentration is likely somewhat higher. The upside is strong exposure to companies that have driven recent market returns; the trade‑off is that portfolio performance is tightly linked to how this specific group behaves.
Factors
Factor exposure here is broadly neutral across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, with all readings hovering around the 50% “market‑like” mark. Factors are basically characteristics that help explain why some stocks behave differently from others—like favoring cheaper companies (value) or steady performers (low volatility). A neutral pattern means this portfolio doesn’t lean strongly into or away from any of these styles; it’s mostly capturing the broad market’s mix. That can be helpful if the goal is to avoid big style bets that might win or lose depending on the cycle. Instead, results are driven more by broad equity movements and geographic and sector tilts, rather than by a specialized factor strategy.
Risk contribution
-
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
Weight: 25.00% 28.3% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 25.6% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 25.3% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 13.00% 10.5% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 12.00% 10.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the three 25% core funds together account for about 79% of total portfolio risk, slightly more than their combined weight. The S&P 500 growth ETF in particular contributes 28.29% of risk, a bit higher than its 25% allocation, reflecting its focus on more volatile growth names. The dividend and emerging markets funds each contribute slightly less risk than their weights. Overall, risk is concentrated in the broad US core holdings, which is consistent with their size and correlation. Position sizing here lines up fairly logically with risk contribution, without any smaller position dominating the volatility picture.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesiShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together. In this portfolio, the three big US equity funds—S&P 500 growth, S&P 500 total, and total US market—are highly correlated and “move almost identically.” That’s expected because they hold many of the same companies and track overlapping parts of the market. High correlation limits diversification benefits between those particular ETFs; owning all three feels a lot like owning a single broad US equity fund from a risk‑movement standpoint. The emerging markets and dividend ETFs likely add some diversification, but the core remains tightly linked. In practice, this means that when the US market rises or falls sharply, all three core positions tend to move in the same direction at roughly the same time.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier, which is the curve showing the best expected return for each level of risk using only the existing holdings. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk‑adjusted return (extra return per unit of volatility above a risk‑free rate), is 0.64 for the current mix. The optimal combination of these same ETFs has a higher Sharpe of 0.86, but also higher risk, while the minimum‑variance blend has lower risk with a Sharpe of 0.7. Being close to the frontier suggests that, for this level of volatility, the overall weighting is already using the available building blocks in a reasonably efficient way.
Dividends
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF 0.30%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.10%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.30%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is about 1.30%, which is modest but in line with a growth‑tilted US equity mix. Dividend yield is simply the annual cash payout as a percentage of the current price. Most of the yield here comes from the US dividend equity ETF at 3.10% and the emerging markets ETF at 2.70%. The growth and broad US market funds yield much less, reflecting their focus on companies that reinvest more profits instead of paying them out. In practical terms, total return will be driven more by price changes than by income. This setup fits a capital‑growth orientation, with dividends providing a smaller but steady contribution to overall performance over time.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF 0.18%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.06%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
The weighted average ongoing cost (TER) of the portfolio is very low at about 0.08% per year. TER, or total expense ratio, is the annual fee charged by the ETFs, expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For every $1,000, that’s roughly $0.80 per year in fund fees, which is impressively lean by industry standards. Low costs matter because they come off returns every single year; keeping them minimal helps more of the portfolio’s gains stay in your pocket and compound over time. This cost profile aligns closely with best practices for index‑based investing and provides a solid foundation for long‑term performance without a heavy fee drag.
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