US heavy equity portfolio with strong technology focus and historically high growth but relatively low diversification
Report created on Jul 24, 2024Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 10.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 10.00% -
SO iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX - US4642875235 10.00%
This portfolio is a simple four‑ETF mix that is 100% in stocks, with a clear US large‑cap growth tilt. The core is a broad S&P 500 ETF at 70%, supported by three more focused satellites: 10% in a NASDAQ 100 tracker, 10% in a US dividend equity ETF, and 10% in a semiconductor ETF. Structurally, this is a “core plus satellites” setup, where one broad fund anchors the portfolio and smaller positions add specific return and risk characteristics. This kind of structure is easy to understand and manage, because changes in the large core position tend to dominate overall behavior. The trade‑off is that the concentrated satellites can still have a meaningful impact on risk despite their smaller weights.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to mid‑2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,678, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.45%. CAGR is the “average yearly speed” of growth, smoothing out the bumps along the way. This return beat both the US market (16.23%) and the global market (14.14%) over the same window. The portfolio also saw a max drawdown of about -26.9%, similar to the benchmarks. Drawdown is the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, and it took roughly 14 months to fully recover. The fact that higher returns came with only modestly deeper declines suggests the tech and semiconductor tilts were rewarded in this particular period.
Projection
The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which basically re‑mixes history thousands of times to see many possible future paths. Here, 1,000 simulated 15‑year outcomes for a $1,000 starting investment produce a median end value around $2,806, with a wide “likely” band from about $1,835 to $4,136. The average annual return across all simulations is 8.15%, far lower than the backward‑looking 18.45% CAGR, underlining that recent strength may not repeat. About three‑quarters of simulations end positive, but the 5th–95th percentile range (roughly $1,005 to $7,923) shows that outcomes vary a lot. This highlights uncertainty: simulations are informative, but they’re still based on the past.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in equities, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. Being 100% in stocks means full participation in equity market growth but also full exposure to equity market downturns. Compared with a more mixed stock‑bond blend, this structure tends to have higher volatility and deeper drawdowns, especially during broad market sell‑offs. Relative to global “all‑in‑one” portfolios, which often include meaningful bond allocations, this one is clearly tilted toward growth over stability. The upside is simplicity and long‑term growth potential; the trade‑off is that short‑term swings are likely to be larger, and there is no built‑in ballast from defensive asset classes when stocks fall together.
Sectors
- Technology 44%
- Financials 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Industrials 7%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology, at around 44% of the equity slice, with the rest spread across financials, telecommunications, health care, consumer areas, and smaller allocations to energy, utilities, real estate, and basic materials. This tech overweight reflects both the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor positions, on top of tech’s natural dominance in broad US indices. Being tech‑heavy can boost returns when innovation‑driven companies lead the market, as has been true in recent years. However, these sectors can be especially sensitive to interest rate changes and shifts in growth expectations, so sector‑specific downturns could have an outsized effect on the overall portfolio.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America, at about 99%, with only a sliver in developed Europe. Compared to global benchmarks like MSCI ACWI, where North America typically makes up a bit over half of market value, this is a strong regional tilt. The benefit is alignment with US corporate earnings and the dollar, which has helped recently as US markets outperformed many others. The flip side is that returns are closely tied to a single economy, currency, and policy environment. If other regions lead in a future cycle, this portfolio would capture relatively little of that, because there is minimal exposure outside North America.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 38%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily toward mega‑ and large‑cap stocks, with about 78% in these bigger companies, 19% in mid‑caps, and only around 1% in small‑caps. Larger companies tend to be more established with diversified revenues, which can make them more resilient than smaller firms during stress, though they can still be volatile. This structure tracks broad US indices closely, since those benchmarks are also dominated by mega‑caps. The relatively small small‑cap slice means less exposure to the more volatile, higher‑beta end of the market that sometimes leads during strong economic expansions, but also less exposure to their sharper downturns when conditions worsen.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 5.65%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.87%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.24%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 32.07%
Looking through ETF top‑10 holdings, a handful of large technology and internet names drive a meaningful share of exposure: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, Alphabet (both share classes), Meta, Micron, and AMD all appear. Several of these repeat across multiple ETFs, especially the broad S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 funds, and the semiconductor ETF adds extra weight to chip‑related names like Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD. This kind of overlap creates hidden concentration: even though each ETF looks diversified on its own, the combined portfolio ends up leaning heavily into a cluster of big tech and chip companies. Coverage is only about 41%, so true overlap is likely higher.
Factors
Across the six listed factors — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility — exposures are all in the “neutral” band, close to the 50% market baseline. Factor exposure describes how much a portfolio leans into specific characteristics that research links to returns, like cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility). In this case, nothing stands out as an intentional tilt: the portfolio behaves broadly like the market from a factor perspective, even though it has strong regional and sector tilts. This balanced factor profile means its performance is more likely driven by its US and tech focus rather than systematic factor bets like deep value or high dividend yield.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 63.9% -
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.00% 18.1% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 10.00% 11.9% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 10.00% 6.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. The 70% S&P 500 position contributes about 64% of total risk, slightly less than its weight, thanks to its broad diversification. The 10% semiconductor ETF contributes roughly 18% of risk, almost double its weight, reflecting its high volatility; it punches above its size. The NASDAQ 100 ETF contributes about 12% of risk, and the dividend ETF contributes just 6%, meaning it’s comparatively calmer. Overall, the top three holdings drive about 94% of portfolio risk, so changes in those funds dominate day‑to‑day movement.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The Efficient Frontier chart compares the current mix to the best possible combinations of these same ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.8, while the optimal (highest Sharpe) mix reaches 1.06 and the minimum variance mix sits at 0.96. Sharpe ratio is a measure of return per unit of risk, after adjusting for a risk‑free rate. The portfolio lies about 1.75 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its current risk level, meaning there are alternative weightings of the same four funds that could historically deliver better risk‑adjusted returns. This doesn’t say anything about future results, but it shows the current weights aren’t fully “efficient” based on past data.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.10%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.08%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.08%, blending a relatively high 3.10% yield from the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF with much lower yields from the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and semiconductor funds. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, like rent from owning a property. In this portfolio, most return potential is expected to come from price changes rather than income, which is typical for growth‑tilted US equity mixes. The dividend ETF does provide a modest income boost and slightly different risk profile, but it’s only 10% of the portfolio, so it doesn’t transform the overall character into an income‑focused strategy.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Total ongoing costs are low, with a blended TER of about 0.08%. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of assets. Here, the largest holding, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, charges only 0.03%, while the NASDAQ 100 fund is 0.15%, the dividend ETF 0.06%, and the semiconductor ETF 0.35%. For an equity portfolio, especially one using well‑known index ETFs, this cost level is impressively low and compares favorably with many active funds and even some other index products. Lower fees mean less drag on compounding over time, so more of the portfolio’s gross return historically stays in the investor’s pocket.
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