Riding the momentum rocket with a turbo booster strapped on and very little in the way of brakes
Report created on Jul 19, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 94.91% -
UP ProShares UltraPro S&P500
UPRO - US74347X8645 5.09%
This “portfolio” is basically one idea shouted twice: S&P 500 momentum and then the same thing on triple espresso. Nearly 95% goes into a momentum ETF, and the remaining 5% is a 3x leveraged S&P bet acting like a loud, hyperactive sidekick. Calling this diversified is generous; it’s more like putting almost everything into one race car and then taping a firework to the hood. Structurally it’s simple, but simple doesn’t mean sensible. When one theme dominates, the whole outcome lives or dies on that single style working, which is exciting in the same way driving in a thunderstorm with bald tires is “exciting.”
Growth
Historically, this thing has absolutely flown: $1,000 turning into $6,270 with a 22.44% CAGR makes both the US and global markets look a bit slow and out of shape. That said, the max drawdown at -35.2% shows the price of that speed: when it hits the brakes, everyone goes through the windshield together. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like your average speed over a wild road trip; drawdown is how far the car fell into the ditch. Past returns here look heroic, but they’re still yesterday’s weather, not a guarantee the storm won’t roll the other way.
Projection
The Monte Carlo results are the buzzkill reality check. Simulations spray out a wide range: the “most likely” landing after 15 years is around $2,759 from $1,000, but the plausible spread runs from “barely above water” to “lottery ticket worked.” Monte Carlo is basically a financial dice-rolling machine, replaying alternate histories with different market paths. An 8.38% average annual outcome is way more boring than the backward-looking 22% party, and the 73.4% chance of a positive result quietly reminds that more than a quarter of futures end up flat or worse. High-octane portfolios look glamorous, but their futures often regress toward boring.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is easy to summarize: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. This is an all-gas-no-brakes setup with no bonds, no cash buffer, no alternative anything. Different asset classes are like different instruments in a band; this is just an overcaffeinated lead guitarist playing solos nonstop. When stocks sing, it’s great; when they scream, there’s nowhere else in the portfolio to hide. The growth label fits, but with this single-asset-class obsession, the portfolio behaves more like a pure equity bet than a thoughtfully balanced mix.
Sectors
- Technology 54%
- Industrials 12%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Financials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, this is a tech creature posing as a broad-market strategy: 54% in technology, with the rest sprinkled thinly across everything else. That’s not “owning the market”; that’s betting the future is basically chips, code, and more chips. Momentum strategies naturally drift into whatever’s hot, but right now that means the portfolio is deeply tied to one engine. If that engine stalls or just stops being the teacher’s pet, the whole portfolio feels it. Other sectors are present mostly as decoration, like background extras on the tech show’s main stage.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geography is easy: 100% North America, as if the rest of the world simply doesn’t exist or doesn’t matter. This is the financial equivalent of never owning a passport and insisting your hometown has everything anyone could ever need. Sure, US markets have dominated for a while, but “what’s worked lately” is not the same as “eternally guaranteed champion.” With everything tied to one region’s politics, currency, regulations, and economic mood swings, the portfolio is fully subscribed to one national storyline, with zero side plots anywhere else on the planet.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 50%
- Mega-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 10%
Market cap exposure leans heavily toward the giants: 37% mega-cap and 50% large-cap, with mid-caps tossed in as a token 10%. This is like building a basketball team and only picking the tallest players because that’s what’s been winning lately. The upside is stability relative to tiny names; the downside is being fully hooked into whatever the market’s biggest celebrities are doing. If the stars stumble or simply stop outrunning the pack, the whole portfolio feels slow and crowded at the top, with very little participation from up-and-coming companies.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 9.31%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500
-
AV Broadcom Inc 6.31%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 4.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 4.29%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500
-
LR Lam Research Corp 3.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
CA Caterpillar Inc 2.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 48.58%
The look-through holdings read like a who’s-who of current market darlings: Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Alphabet (twice), AMD, Lam Research, Intel. There’s a heavy semiconductor and mega-tech core hiding under the ETF wrapper, and the overlap means a lot of chips and code are quietly piled on top of each other. Because only top-10 ETF positions are captured, the real concentration is likely even more intense. This isn’t a broad basket; it’s a fan club membership for a handful of leaders wearing different ETF jerseys, all tied to the same growth-heavy narrative.
Factors
Factor exposure screams one thing: 74% momentum. This portfolio is basically a momentum addict with only mild interest in anything else. Factors are the hidden ingredients that explain returns; here the recipe is “buy what’s been winning and hope gravity forgets to show up.” Size tilts low (so bigger stocks dominate), value is neutral (no real bargain-hunting), yield is low (dividends are an afterthought), and quality/low-vol are only average, not protective. Leaning this hard into momentum is like riding a winning horse while ignoring the fact that it occasionally panics and bolts in the wrong direction.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 94.91% 88.8% -
ProShares UltraPro S&P500
Weight: 5.09% 11.3%
Risk contribution is where the quiet chaos shows up. The main ETF holds about 95% of the weight and contributes nearly 89% of the risk — fair enough. But that tiny 5% sliver in the leveraged S&P fund is responsible for more than 11% of total risk, pulling over double its weight in volatility. Risk contribution is basically asking, “Who’s shaking the table?” and the answer is that the small leveraged kicker is punching way above its size. It turns an already spicy portfolio into something that twitches extra hard on bad days for very little structural benefit.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio actually behaves like it knows what it’s doing: it sits on or very near the frontier with a Sharpe ratio of 0.82, while the optimal and minimum-variance mixes (of the same holdings) are around 0.97. The efficient frontier is the curve that says, “for these ingredients, here’s the best trade-off you could get.” Being close means the weights are at least logically arranged for the chosen flavor of crazy. It’s still a very racy profile, but it’s not inefficient; this is a deliberate high-speed build, not random chaos.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500 0.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.71%
Dividend yield at 0.71% is basically a rounding error. This portfolio is clearly not here for income; it’s here for price action and vibes. Dividends are the quiet, dependable paycheck from holdings; momentum-heavy tech and growth names rarely bother with that, preferring to promise glorious future gains instead. The yield level just confirms what everything else already screamed: this is a capital appreciation chase, not a cash-flow generator. Anyone expecting this setup to “pay them to wait” is going to be waiting a long time while the portfolio just sprints or staggers around.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- ProShares UltraPro S&P500 0.92%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.17%
Costs are the one area where the portfolio doesn’t self-sabotage. A total TER of 0.17% is impressively low for something this wild — almost like clicking the right ETFs by sheer accident. The main momentum fund is cheap; the leveraged fund is predictably pricey at 0.92%, but it’s small enough that it doesn’t wreck the blended cost. Fees are the slow leak in the financial tire; here, the leak is minimal. The real risk isn’t what’s paid to fund providers — it’s what the portfolio may donate to the market during the next momentum unwind.
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