What IF?
Germany’s new Altersvorsorgedepot against a normal depot: what your savings plan could hold at the payout, and what each pays you after tax.
Rules to apply
More countries’ pension accounts will follow.
Running your what-if
Your plan to payout under the Altersvorsorgedepot’s rules and in a normal depot, over many possible futures made of real months.
- Reading the funds’ pricesEvery closing price we have, in euros
- Measuring how they movedGrowth and swings, month by month
- Drawing 1,000 futuresReal months strung together in one-year blocks, the same for every fund
- Paying in every monthYour amount on the 1st, into both plans
- Claiming the state subsidyEach year’s subsidy, credited the next May
- Shifting to the defensive fundAs the payout comes closer
- Taxing the normal depotThe Vorabpauschale each January, oldest units sold first
- Ranking the outcomesThe middle future and the range around it
- Planning the payoutThe payout-plan rule, year by year
Foreign listings are converted at each day’s exchange rate. The broker fee comes out of every purchase. The account fee is charged on what the portfolio is worth (100 bp = 1% a year), a little every day, plus VAT on it. The all-world fund pays both too.
An illustration from past prices, not financial advice: past returns do not promise future ones.
Running your what-if
Real closing prices, every purchase on its own date, replayed one trading day at a time.
| Plan A | Plan B |
|---|
Total return: prices are adjusted closes, so every dividend counts as reinvested on the day it was paid. Before tax; after the broker and account fees set above.
Under water
How far below its previous high the portfolio sat at each point — the falls you would have lived through.
Total return, measured on the holdings themselves, so your own purchases neither hide nor deepen a fall. Two plans in the same funds fall by the same percentage; how much money that is depends on how much was in at the time.
| Asset | Plan | Put in | Worth | Share |
|---|
No rebalancing: each row keeps what it bought. A date before a fund’s first price is moved or skipped, and the row says so. The X-ray uses plan A.