Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong technology tilt and historically high returns but deep drawdowns
Report created on Apr 22, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SW Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund
SWPPX - US8085098551 50.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 20.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 15.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 15.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from four US equity funds, with half in a broad S&P 500 index fund and the rest in three growth- and factor-focused ETFs. The S&P 500 core position anchors the portfolio to the overall US large-cap market, while the dedicated large-cap growth, semiconductor, and momentum sleeves lean into specific return drivers. This kind of “core plus satellites” structure matters because the satellites can meaningfully shift behavior away from the broad market even when they are smaller weights. Here, the growth and semiconductor allocations add punch and concentration, helping explain both the strong historical returns and the relatively high risk classification and low diversification score.
Growth
Over the period shown, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,069, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.26%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing out the ups and downs. That’s meaningfully ahead of both the US market (12.51%) and global market (10.14%) benchmarks. The trade-off is a deeper max drawdown of -28.89%, meaning the largest peak-to-trough drop was almost 29% and took over two years from peak to full recovery. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 20 days shows how performance was driven by a small set of very strong periods, typical of concentrated growth-tilted equity portfolios.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses historical return and volatility patterns to generate 1,000 possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. It’s like running many alternate “what if” histories based on how the portfolio has behaved in the past. The median outcome of around $2,810 implies an annualized return of about 8.21% across simulations, but the range is wide: roughly $1,775–$4,175 in the middle 50%, and $989–$8,176 between the 5th and 95th percentiles. A 73.8% chance of a positive return highlights that losses over 15 years were uncommon in the simulations, but still possible. As always, this relies on past data; structural market changes could make future outcomes differ substantially.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like assets, or alternatives. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and real estate that tend to behave differently in various economic environments. A 100% equity allocation maximizes exposure to growth and company earnings, which historically drives higher long-term returns than bonds, but it also leaves the portfolio fully exposed to equity market swings. Compared with diversified multi-asset benchmarks that blend stocks and bonds, this structure naturally carries higher volatility and deeper drawdowns. The growth risk score of 5/7 and low diversification score line up with this single-asset-class profile.
Sectors
- Technology 48%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Financials 8%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology at 48%, with the semiconductor ETF amplifying that exposure, and smaller allocations across telecommunications, financials, health care, industrials, consumer areas, energy, utilities, materials, and real estate. Sectors are groupings of companies that tend to respond similarly to economic forces. Relative to broad equity benchmarks, a tech weighting near half the portfolio is notably high and signals greater sensitivity to innovation cycles, interest rates, and market sentiment toward high-growth businesses. This kind of tech-heavy mix can outperform strongly during periods of rapid digital adoption and falling rates, but it can also experience sharper setbacks when growth stories are questioned.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Europe Developed 1%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America at 98%, with only very small exposures to developed Europe and Asia. Geography matters because companies in different regions face different currencies, regulations, growth rates, and political environments. Broad global equity benchmarks typically allocate a significant share outside North America, reflecting the global distribution of market value. Here, the near‑exclusive US focus has benefited from the strong run of US equities in recent years, contributing to the portfolio’s outperformance versus the global market. At the same time, it means results are heavily tied to the fortunes of one region and its currency, limiting diversification across global economic cycles.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, almost half the portfolio is in mega-cap companies, another 37% in large caps, with modest mid-cap exposure and only 1% in small caps. Market cap exposure influences how sensitive a portfolio is to company size effects, such as the sometimes higher growth but greater volatility found in smaller firms. Compared to a pure total-market approach, this portfolio is clearly tilted toward the largest, most established companies that dominate major indices. That tilt can dampen some of the extreme volatility associated with very small stocks while still capturing growth from leading firms, but it also means less exposure to potential “emerging winners” lower down the size spectrum.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 1.93%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.73%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.56%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 21.33%
Looking through the funds’ top holdings, there is meaningful overlap in a handful of large technology and semiconductor names. NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, Apple, Alphabet (both share classes), Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, and Lam Research together account for a noticeable slice of total exposure, even though they appear only via ETFs, not as individual stocks. Overlap matters because owning the same company through multiple funds can create hidden concentration: the headline number of funds may suggest diversification, but the underlying drivers of performance are more clustered. Since only top‑10 ETF holdings are included, true overlap is likely higher, meaning the portfolio’s behavior may be even more tied to these big tech names than the numbers alone show.
Factors
On factor exposure, the portfolio shows low value (37%), low yield (30%), and low low-volatility (40%), with size, momentum, and quality roughly neutral. Factors are characteristics like value or momentum that research has linked to long-term return patterns, similar to “ingredients” in a recipe. A low value score indicates a tilt away from cheaper stocks and toward higher-priced growth names. Low yield and low-volatility scores signal a bias against more stable, dividend-oriented companies. Combined with the tech and growth tilt, this suggests performance may be more sensitive to market enthusiasm for high-growth stories: strong when growth is in favor, but more vulnerable when investors rotate toward cheaper, steadier stocks.
Risk contribution
-
Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund
Weight: 50.00% 41.3% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 15.00% 24.3% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.5% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 15.00% 12.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ a lot from simple weights. Here, the 50% S&P 500 core contributes about 41% of total risk, less than its weight, acting as a relative stabilizer. The 15% semiconductor ETF contributes roughly 24% of risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.62, meaning it punches well above its size in driving volatility. The large-cap growth ETF contributes slightly more risk than its weight, while the momentum ETF contributes a bit less. With the top three holdings creating over 87% of total risk, the portfolio’s experience is heavily shaped by those positions, especially the concentrated semiconductor sleeve.
Redundant positions
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High correlationSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFSchwab S&P 500 Index Fund
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. A correlation near 1 means they often rise and fall in tandem, while 0 means their moves are mostly unrelated. The S&P 500 index fund and the US large-cap growth ETF are highlighted as moving almost identically, which makes sense because they both focus on large US companies with overlapping constituents. High correlation between these two positions means they behave more like a combined block than separate diversifiers. In practice, changes in their relative weights adjust exposure to the same underlying market driver rather than adding distinct, offsetting patterns that might cushion swings during sharp market moves.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.65, compared with 0.98 for the optimal mix and 0.72 for the minimum-variance option, given these same holdings. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to compare risk-adjusted returns: how much excess return you’re getting per unit of volatility, relative to a risk-free rate. Being about 3.75 percentage points below the efficient frontier at the current risk level means that, historically, different weightings of these four funds could have achieved a better balance of return for the same volatility. The good news is that this is an internal efficiency question, not a judgment on the underlying funds themselves.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.81%
The overall dividend yield for the portfolio is relatively low at 0.81%, with the S&P 500 core at 1.10% and the growth and semiconductor funds around 0.40%, while the momentum ETF offers about 0.80%. Dividend yield is the annual cash income as a percentage of the investment value. Lower yields are common for growth-focused and tech-heavy portfolios, where companies often reinvest earnings rather than pay them out. This means the portfolio’s historical return has been driven mainly by price appreciation rather than income. For an all-equity, growth-tilted structure, that pattern is consistent and not a sign of weakness, just a reflection of the kinds of companies it emphasizes.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) averages a very low 0.07%, with the S&P 500 index fund at 0.02%, the Schwab growth ETF at 0.04%, and the factor and sector funds at 0.13% and 0.19%. TER is the annual fee charged by each fund, expressed as a percentage of assets; over long periods, lower fees can leave more of the gross return in the investor’s pocket. These costs compare favorably with typical active or higher-cost funds and align well with low-cost index and rules-based strategies. This cost efficiency is a clear strength of the portfolio and supports better long-term performance potential, all else equal.
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