A momentum flavored US comfort blanket pretending to be global diversification
Report created on Aug 3, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 60.00% -
VF Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor
VFMO - US9219355081 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00%
This portfolio is the investing equivalent of ordering three flavors of the same ice cream and calling it a sampler. Sixty percent in total US market, another 20% in US momentum, and 20% in total international is basically “more US, plus a side salad of abroad.” The structure is simple, but also a bit lazy: two overlapping US funds and one catch‑all foreign fund doing cleanup duty. It looks diversified on the surface, yet everything still dances to the same global equity tune. The big picture: this is a straightforward growth portfolio dressed up as something fancier, but underneath it’s just stocks, more stocks, and nothing but stocks.
Growth
Historically, this mix did fine but not heroic: 12.96% CAGR turned $1,000 into $2,795, which sounds great until the US market walks past with 14.43%. You basically built a US-heavy portfolio and still managed to lag the plain US benchmark. Beating the global market by 1.6% per year is the one bragging right here, but that’s mostly “America did well” rather than portfolio genius. Max drawdown of –35% in early 2020 shows it falls like a normal aggressive equity portfolio. Past performance is like an old highlight reel: fun to watch, but it doesn’t guarantee the sequel ends the same way.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection says the future could range anywhere from “meh” to “nicely lucky,” with a median of $2,796 after 15 years on $1,000. Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of rolling the dice on thousands of possible return paths instead of pretending markets move in straight lines. The likely range is wide enough to remind anyone this is still a risk asset, not a savings account cosplaying as a portfolio. A 73% chance of finishing positive is reassuring, but that 27% chance of real disappointment is the cost of being 100% in stocks. It’s growth‑tilted, not magic.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is simple: 100% stocks, zero subtlety. No bonds, no cash proxy, no defensive ballast whatsoever. It’s like driving without brakes and then congratulating yourself on how fast the car can go downhill. For a so‑called growth profile, this is on‑brand, but it also means when equities get punched, this portfolio takes the hit full force. There’s nothing in the mix whose main job is to zig when stocks zag. It’s a clean, textbook equity-only build, which is efficient for growth but hilariously one‑dimensional from a risk-buffer standpoint.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Industrials 14%
- Financials 13%
- Health Care 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Energy 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this thing clearly worships at the altar of tech, with about 30% in technology and another chunky slice in tech‑adjacent growth names. Then come industrials, financials, and health care trying to make the pie chart look respectable. The rest are basically garnish. This isn’t “balanced sectors,” it’s “everything that does well when growth is in fashion plus some token value-ish sectors for decoration.” When tech sneezes, this portfolio catches the flu. The sector spread looks broad on paper, but in practice it’s very much tuned to one economic story: innovation up, boring stuff down.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geography screams “USA first, everyone else maybe later” with 81% in North America. The 20% international holding doesn’t really save it from being a mostly US bet; it just gives it an accent. Europe, Japan, and emerging markets barely register in comparison. This is less a global portfolio and more a US empire with some foreign side characters. Sure, global market cap is heavily US, but this takes it a step further into comfort‑zone territory. If the US leads, you look smart; if it lags, you’ll discover what “home bias” really means in dollar terms.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 9%
- Micro-cap 6%
Market cap exposure is heavily tilted to the big kids: 34% mega‑cap and 30% large‑cap. Mid‑caps, small‑caps, and micro‑caps show up, but mainly so the holdings list doesn’t look embarrassingly top‑heavy. This is very much a giants‑run-the-show setup, where a handful of enormous companies quietly decide your fate. It’s efficient and index‑like, but also means the truly small and weird parts of the market barely move the needle. If mega‑caps wobble, the whole portfolio gets seasick, regardless of how many tiny names are technically hiding in the background.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.50%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.29%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.90%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.36%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.07%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.02%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 19.30%
Look‑through holdings show the usual suspects hogging the spotlight: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Tesla, Meta — basically a tech‑mega‑cap reunion tour. For a “three ETF” portfolio, the hidden overlap isn’t exactly subtle; you’re double‑ and triple‑dipping into the same headline names. And that’s just from top‑10 ETF holdings, with 76% of positions not even visible in this snapshot. So the actual duplication is probably worse than it looks. This isn’t three different ideas; it’s the same core group of giants wearing slightly different ETF costumes and pretending to be diversification.
Factors
Factor exposure is almost suspiciously vanilla: everything sits in the “Neutral” band. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility — all hovering around market‑like levels. For a portfolio that explicitly includes a momentum ETF, the overall factor profile basically shrugs and says “nothing to see here.” That means the flashy “smart beta” label doesn’t really change the character of the portfolio much; it still behaves like a regular broad equity basket. Factor-wise, this is the investing equivalent of ordering everything “medium” — no spicy tilt, no deep discount tilt, just middle‑of‑the‑road everywhere.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 60.00% 60.0% -
Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor
Weight: 20.00% 23.1% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 16.9%
Risk contribution is brutally simple: three funds, 100% of the risk, no surprises. The total US market ETF pulls about 60% of the risk, neatly matching its weight — it’s the main driver and doesn’t even pretend otherwise. The US momentum slice is just 20% of the portfolio but contributes over 23% of risk, meaning it swings a bit harder than its size suggests. The international fund underpunches at 17% risk for 20% weight, acting slightly tamer. Translation: one core US engine, one risk‑amped US sidecar, and one calmer global passenger holding on.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, the portfolio actually behaves itself: Sharpe ratio of 0.52 and sitting right on or very near the frontier. In plain English, given these three ingredients, the risk‑return mix isn’t dumb — it’s pretty well tuned. There’s an “optimal” version with slightly higher return (15.14% vs 14.03%) and similar risk, but you’re not miles off it. So the roasting here isn’t about efficiency; it’s about how narrow the menu is. Within this tiny 3‑ETF universe, you’re using them intelligently — you just didn’t invite many guests to the party in the first place.
Dividends
- Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor 0.60%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.30%
Dividend yield at 1.30% is basically pocket change — this portfolio clearly didn’t come here to throw off income. The international slice is doing most of the dividend lifting at 2.60%, while the US momentum piece barely bothers with 0.60%. This is a capital‑growth story, not a “live off the yield” fantasy. Income is more of a side effect than a feature. If someone looked at this and expected a steady cash stream, they’d be disappointed; it’s more like waiting for tips at a nearly empty restaurant than owning a mature dividend machine.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are almost offensively low at a 0.05% total TER. That’s “did Vanguard accidentally misprice this?” cheap. You’re basically getting a full equity portfolio for the price of a cup of coffee every few years, fee-wise. Even the fancier momentum fund comes in at 0.13%, which is still modest compared to most “smart” products. There’s nothing meaningful to roast here except that you’ve eliminated the usual villain, so all that’s left to blame for any future underperformance is pure market behavior and your own choice of these three plain‑vanilla funds.
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