Highly concentrated US stock portfolio with strong momentum tilt and history of big swings and high returns
Report created on Sep 24, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 90.00% -
TQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ
TQQQ - US74347X8314 10.00%
This portfolio is extremely focused: two US equity ETFs make up 100% of the holdings, with 90% in a momentum-focused S&P 500 fund and 10% in a 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 product. That structure means everything is tied to US stocks, and a meaningful slice is tied to daily leveraged tech and growth names. A concentrated setup like this is simple to follow but leaves little room for other asset types to offset shocks. The design lines up with the aggressive risk label: it aims squarely at equity growth and accepts large short-term swings as part of the ride.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio has turned $1,000 into about $8,731 over ten years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.46%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out all the ups and downs. That’s far above both the US market (16.57%) and global market (13.55%) over the same period. The trade-off is a max drawdown of -45.36%, meaning at one point it was nearly half off its peak before recovering. That’s deeper than the benchmarks’ drawdowns. Only 39 days generated 90% of returns, showing results depended on a small number of powerful up days.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past returns and volatility to simulate many different future paths, like running 1,000 alternate histories for the next 15 years. In these simulations, $1,000 most often ends around $2,680, with a central range from about $1,751 to $4,108. There’s a wide possible span from roughly $971 to $7,884, reflecting the portfolio’s high uncertainty. The average annual return across all simulations is 8.08%, and roughly 73% of paths end positive. These are statistical what-if scenarios, not promises; they rely on past patterns that may change, especially for a portfolio this aggressive.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no bonds, cash substitutes, or alternative assets in the mix. That makes the asset-class picture simple but also explains why the risk score is high and the diversification score is low. Stocks tend to grow faster than bonds over long periods but usually come with larger and more frequent drawdowns. Broad market indices often hold some blend of equities and safer assets to smooth the experience; here, the “all‑equity, all‑the‑time” stance means returns are driven almost entirely by how global equity markets — and especially US growth names — behave.
Sectors
- Technology 54%
- Industrials 11%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Financials 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward technology at 54%, with the rest spread across industrials, telecom, health care, financials, and smaller slices of other areas. This is a much bigger tech stake than broad US indices typically carry. Tech-heavy lineups can benefit strongly in periods of innovation, low rates, and strong growth expectations, but they often feel rate hikes, regulation shocks, or sentiment reversals more sharply. The modest allocations to defensive areas like consumer staples, utilities, and health care may help a bit in downturns, but they are relatively small compared to the large growth-oriented technology concentration.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% North America, with full dependence on US-listed companies. This aligns with many US equity benchmarks but skips the diversification that comes from owning businesses in different economic regions and currencies. When the US market is leading, such concentration can boost returns versus global blends. At the same time, it means results are closely tied to US interest rates, regulation, tax policy, and the dollar’s strength. Global indices typically allocate a significant share outside the US, so this portfolio is intentionally more domestically focused than a world-market-style mix.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 46%
- Mega-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 10%
Some holdings may not have full classification data available. Percentages may not add up to 100%.
The portfolio leans toward the largest companies, with 37% in mega-caps and 46% in large-caps, plus about 10% in mid-caps. That pattern is broadly similar to major US indices, which are also weighted by market value and dominated by the biggest names. Mega-cap and large-cap stocks often have more stable business models and deeper liquidity, which can reduce idiosyncratic risk compared to very small companies. However, when many indices and funds cluster in the same giants, portfolio outcomes can be driven by a relatively small group of big, widely owned names, increasing exposure to their specific cycles.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 10.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.56%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 4.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 4.18%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 4.17%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.33%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 2.89%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.77%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 48.33%
Looking through the ETFs, the top indirect exposures include Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, both Alphabet share classes, AMD, Intel, and large non-tech names like Johnson & Johnson and Exxon. Several companies appear multiple times via different funds, which creates hidden concentration: for example, Alphabet shows up as both Class A and Class C, and the semiconductor group appears repeatedly. Because only ETF top-10 holdings are visible, real overlap is likely somewhat higher than shown. This clustering means the portfolio’s fate is tightly linked to a handful of big, often tech-related companies rather than being evenly spread across hundreds of names.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a very strong tilt toward momentum at 73%, meaning the portfolio heavily favors stocks that have been recent winners. Factor exposure is like checking which “traits” your holdings share; momentum is the trait of having strong recent price performance. High momentum tilt often shines in sustained uptrends as markets reward winners, but reversals can be painful because those same names can fall quickly when sentiment turns. Other factors — value, quality, and low volatility — sit near neutral, so they don’t strongly offset that growthy, momentum-driven behavior. Yield and size show mild tilts away, consistent with lower dividends and large, growth-focused holdings.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 90.00% 75.2% -
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Weight: 10.00% 24.8%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. The core momentum ETF is 90% of the portfolio but contributes about 75% of total risk, meaning it’s relatively less volatile than the smaller holding. The 3x leveraged QQQ ETF, at only 10% weight, still drives almost 25% of overall risk, with a risk/weight ratio nearly three times higher. This shows how leveraged products can punch above their size in terms of volatility. Overall, just two positions account for 100% of the portfolio’s risk, which is highly concentrated.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current mix is already on or very close to the optimal curve for these two holdings. The Sharpe ratio — a measure of return per unit of risk above a risk-free rate — is 0.86 for the current portfolio, versus 0.96 for the max-Sharpe blend and 0.97 for the minimum-variance blend. All three points sit on the frontier, meaning the existing allocation is broadly efficient within this limited menu. In other words, given these two ingredients, the portfolio is extracting strong historical return for its level of volatility, even if the overall risk level is still high in absolute terms.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.59%
The portfolio’s dividend yield is low at about 0.59%, with both ETFs yielding around half a percent. Dividends are cash payments from companies, and over long periods they can be a meaningful part of total return. Here, the focus is clearly on price appreciation rather than income. That lines up with the momentum and growth tilt, as many fast-growing companies reinvest profits instead of paying large dividends. For someone tracking this portfolio, it means that most of the historical gains have come from rising share prices rather than regular cash distributions hitting the account.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- ProShares UltraPro QQQ 0.88%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.20%
Total ongoing fund costs are modest at around 0.20% per year. That’s driven by a low 0.13% fee on the main momentum ETF and a higher 0.88% fee on the leveraged QQQ slice. Expense ratios (TERs) are like a small annual “maintenance cost” deducted inside each fund; lower costs leave more of the gross return in the investor’s hands over time. In this case, even with a niche leveraged product in the mix, the blended cost remains relatively low. That’s a positive alignment with best practice, since high fees can compound into a noticeable drag over long horizons.
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