Highly concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and standout recent performance
Report created on Apr 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 15.00% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 10.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 5.00%
This portfolio is a focused growth mix built entirely from US equities, with five positions and a clear hierarchy. Half the money sits in a broad S&P 500 ETF, 20% in a NASDAQ 100 ETF, and 15% in a semiconductor ETF, so index-style funds dominate. A single stock, NVIDIA, takes another 10%, and a small 5% slice goes to a US small-cap value ETF. This creates a structure where one broad core fund is surrounded by high-growth satellites. The setup keeps things relatively simple to track, but also means each holding has a meaningful impact. With no bonds or cash, the portfolio leans fully into equity market ups and downs.
Growth
Over the period from mid-2021 to April 2026, $1,000 grew to about $2,976, which is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.29%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That growth strongly beat both the US market (12.77% CAGR) and global market (10.36% CAGR), reflecting the portfolio’s growth and tech focus. The flip side is risk: the maximum drawdown, or worst peak-to-trough fall, was -34.81%, deeper than both benchmarks. This shows how concentrated growth exposure can deliver big gains but also larger temporary declines. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 25 days underlines how missing a small number of strong days would have mattered a lot.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past return and volatility patterns to simulate many possible 15-year paths. Think of it as re-playing history 1,000 different ways, with some good sequences and some bad ones. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,687, implying an annualized return around 8.02%, though individual paths range widely. The “likely” middle band runs from roughly $1,783 to $4,250, while the broader 5–95% range stretches from $905 to $7,411. This wide spread is normal for an all-equity, growth-tilted portfolio. These simulations are not predictions; they simply show that, based on history, long-term outcomes can vary a lot even when the average looks appealing.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds or cash-like holdings. That makes the asset-class mix very straightforward but also explains the high historical swings. Equities tend to offer higher long-run return potential than bonds, but they can fall more sharply in market downturns. Compared with a broad global portfolio that might mix in fixed income or defensive assets, this one takes a more aggressive stance. The strong equity-only focus can work well in long bull markets, as the historic performance shows, but tends to feel more uncomfortable in periods like 2022 when stocks fell together. The absence of other asset classes means diversification is happening within stocks only, not across different types of investments.
Sectors
- Technology 53%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Financials 7%
- Health Care 6%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology at 53%, with the semiconductor ETF and NVIDIA magnifying that. Other sectors like telecom, consumer discretionary, financials, health care, and industrials are present but each in single-digit slices, with defensives such as utilities, staples, and real estate staying quite small. Compared with broad benchmarks where tech is large but not a majority, this is a pronounced tech concentration. Tech-heavy portfolios often do very well when innovation, growth stories, and low interest rates are in favor, but they can be more sensitive when rates rise or when investors rotate into more cyclical or defensive areas. This allocation clearly leans into growth and innovation rather than balance across the economic cycle.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, about 98% of the exposure is in North America, with only a token 1% in developed Europe and almost nothing elsewhere. This is a strong home-country focus compared with global indices, where the US is large but not nearly this dominant. A US-centric portfolio can benefit when US companies and the dollar outperform, as they often have in recent years, helping to boost the backtested results. At the same time, it means the portfolio is closely tied to one economy, one policy environment, and one currency. Very little of the potential growth or diversification from other regions shows up here, so any episodes of US-specific weakness would likely be felt quite directly.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 47%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 2%
Looking at company size, the portfolio leans heavily toward mega-cap and large-cap stocks, which together account for 79% of exposure. These are the giant firms that dominate major indices and are often more established and liquid. Mid-caps, small-caps, and micro-caps make up a smaller but still meaningful slice, adding some diversification in terms of business models and growth stages. The dedicated small-cap value ETF helps introduce more exposure to smaller companies than a plain S&P 500 and NASDAQ combo would. In practice, this means the portfolio tends to move closely with big, well-known names, while the smaller-cap segment adds some extra variability and potentially different return patterns without dominating overall behavior.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 40.54%
The look-through view reveals that NVIDIA is the standout underlying exposure at about 17.16% total, combining a 10% direct position and 7.16% via ETFs. Several other large US tech names—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom—also appear across multiple ETFs, but each at lower single-digit levels. This kind of overlap is common when using broad US and growth-oriented index funds, because they often hold the same top companies. The high NVIDIA concentration is noteworthy because it creates “hidden” reliance on a single stock’s fortunes. Since only ETF top-10 holdings are captured, real overlap is likely a bit higher than shown, meaning concentration in these mega-cap growth names may be somewhat understated.
Factors
On factor exposures, the portfolio shows low value (35%) and low low-volatility (35%) scores, while size, momentum, quality, and yield sit around neutral. Factor exposure is a way of measuring how much a portfolio leans into characteristics like cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility) that research has linked to returns. A mild tilt away from value suggests a preference for companies priced more for growth than for current earnings or assets. The low reading for low-volatility indicates an emphasis on more volatile names rather than steady, defensive stocks. Together, these tilts are consistent with a growth-oriented, tech-heavy style that tends to shine in strong bull markets but can swing more dramatically when markets wobble or sentiment shifts.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 35.5% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 15.00% 22.2% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 10.00% 19.6% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 19.1% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 5.00% 3.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is half the portfolio but only about 35.5% of risk, reflecting its broad diversification. By contrast, NVIDIA is 10% of assets but almost 19.6% of total risk—almost double its weight—because it is more volatile. The semiconductor ETF also pulls more than its weight, with 15% allocation but 22.2% of risk. The top three holdings together generate over 77% of total risk, even though they are 75% by weight. This pattern is normal for a concentrated growth mix, but it means day-to-day performance is especially tied to these few positions.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The correlation data highlights that the NASDAQ 100 ETF and S&P 500 ETF move almost identically. Correlation measures how often assets move together, on a scale from -1 (always opposite) to +1 (always in the same direction). When two holdings are highly correlated, they may look like diversification on paper but behave similarly during big market moves. In this portfolio, the large allocations to both funds mean a big chunk of capital is effectively riding on the same broad group of US large growth companies. This helps explain why the portfolio tracks US equity trends so closely. The more specialized semiconductor ETF and single stock add extra volatility rather than completely different behavior.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares this portfolio’s risk–return balance with the best possible combinations of its existing holdings. The current mix has a Sharpe ratio of 0.77, which measures return per unit of risk after accounting for a 4% risk-free rate. The frontier suggests that, at the same risk level (about 22.8% volatility), the portfolio sits roughly 3 percentage points below what could be achieved by reweighting the same five holdings. That means the structure is reasonably effective but not fully optimized from a risk/return standpoint. There is also a minimum-variance mix with lower risk and slightly lower Sharpe, and a much higher-risk version with a stronger Sharpe, showing a wide set of trade-offs even within the same ingredient list.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.76%
The total dividend yield is around 0.76%, which is relatively low compared with income-focused equity portfolios. Yield measures how much cash you receive each year as dividends relative to your investment, not counting price changes. The S&P 500 ETF and the small-cap value ETF provide most of the income here, with yields of 1.10% and 1.30% respectively, while the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor ETFs yield very little. This aligns with a growth-driven approach, where returns are expected to come more from rising share prices than regular cash payouts. For someone tracking total return, lower dividends are not necessarily a drawback; they just reflect a different mix of how returns arrive over time.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
On costs, this portfolio is very efficient. The weighted total expense ratio (TER) across the ETFs is about 0.09%, which is low by industry standards. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of your investment—similar to a small membership fee for accessing each ETF. The largest holding, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, is particularly cheap at 0.03%, helping pull the overall cost down. Keeping expenses low is a structural advantage because fees compound over time just like returns do, but in the opposite direction. This cost profile supports better long-term outcomes by allowing more of the portfolio’s gross performance—good or bad—to flow through to the investor.
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