Strong US growth tilt with concentrated mega cap exposure and efficient risk return balance
Report created on Aug 8, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 70.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 15.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00%
This portfolio is very focused: three stock ETFs cover everything, with 70% in a US large-cap growth fund and the remaining 30% split evenly between total US and total international stock markets. That means most of the behavior is driven by one growth-heavy core, with two broad market funds adding diversification around the edges. A structure like this is simple to follow and easy to understand, because there are no bonds, alternatives, or niche strategies. The big takeaway is that this is a pure equity, growth-tilted setup, so portfolio ups and downs will be closely tied to how global stocks — and especially US growth companies — perform over time.
Growth
Historically, from 2016 to 2026, a $1,000 investment grew to about $4,814, which is a 17.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. That beat both the broad US market (15.4%) and global market (12.69%). The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -32.9% during early 2020, roughly in line with the benchmarks. Returns were also quite concentrated: just 38 days made up 90% of gains, showing how missing a handful of strong days could have meaningfully changed the outcome.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible futures by “replaying” patterns from past returns in random combinations. It ran 1,000 simulations over 15 years for a $1,000 investment. The median outcome lands around $2,777, with a central “likely” band from about $1,789 to $4,299. In more extreme but still plausible cases, the range stretches from roughly $994 to $8,327. Across all simulations, the average annual return comes out near 8.3%. This illustrates a wide spread of potential paths: long-term growth is common in the simulations, but outcomes vary a lot. As always, these are statistical scenarios, not predictions, and the future can differ from any model.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is invested in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. That makes the asset-class picture very straightforward but also more volatile, because stocks tend to move more than bonds in both directions. In many broad “balanced” portfolios, you’d often see a meaningful bond slice to moderate big swings, but here the full exposure is to equity markets. The benefit of a stock-only structure is higher long-term return potential compared with adding lower-risk assets, but the trade-off is deeper and more frequent drawdowns along the way, especially during market stress or recessions.
Sectors
- Technology 41%
- Telecommunications 12%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Industrials 9%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward growth-oriented areas. Technology stands out at 41%, with additional exposure in related areas like telecommunications and consumer discretionary. More defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and real estate are present but relatively small. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this looks more tech-heavy and growth-focused, which helps explain the strong historical performance. It also means results may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates, innovation cycles, and market sentiment toward high-growth businesses. When growth sectors lead, this structure can shine; when markets rotate toward more defensive or value-oriented areas, the ride may feel bumpier.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 5%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, the portfolio leans strongly toward North America at 86%, with modest slices across developed Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and emerging Asia. This is a clear US-centric profile, even more so than a typical global benchmark where non-US markets take a larger share. The 15% allocation to international stocks does add some global diversification, giving exposure to other economies and currencies. Still, the economic and currency story is largely tied to the US, which has worked well over the past decade but also concentrates exposure in one major region. That means global shocks affecting the US will likely dominate portfolio behavior.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 53%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 3%
Most of the portfolio sits in the largest companies, with about 53% in mega-cap and 28% in large-cap stocks. Mid-caps represent 15%, and small caps a small 3% slice. That means the portfolio is strongly driven by the biggest global names, which are often more stable and widely followed than smaller companies, but can be more tied to broad index moves and macro news. Compared with a pure total-market approach, this tilts away from the smallest firms that can behave very differently from giants. The upside is more predictable behavior; the trade-off is less exposure to the potential higher growth — and higher risk — of smaller companies.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.14%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 7.25%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.70%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 4.28%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.54%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.15%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.83%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.07%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.83%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Top 10 total 40.76%
Looking through the ETFs, the same mega-cap names show up repeatedly: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Eli Lilly, and AMD together take a meaningful slice of total exposure. These companies appear in multiple funds, especially the growth and total US market ETFs, so their combined weights (for example, over 8% in NVIDIA and over 7% in Apple) create hidden concentration. Because only top-10 holdings are used, the true overlap is likely a bit higher. This illustrates how a portfolio that seems diversified by fund count can still be heavily driven by a small group of large, influential companies.
Factors
Factor exposures are mostly neutral, meaning the portfolio behaves broadly like the overall market on size, momentum, quality, and low volatility. Two factors stand out: value and yield are both on the low side. A low value exposure means the portfolio leans away from cheaper, more “out-of-favor” stocks and more toward growth characteristics. Similarly, a low yield tilt reflects a preference for companies that reinvest profits rather than paying high dividends. Historically, growth-tilted portfolios can do well when investors reward fast-growing businesses, but they may lag during periods when markets favor cheaper or higher-dividend stocks. Overall, though, factor balance here remains relatively close to market norms.
Risk contribution
-
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 70.00% 75.7% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 13.5% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 10.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF is 70% of the portfolio but contributes about 75.7% of total risk, so it punches slightly above its weight. The two Vanguard funds together make up 30% of the weight but less than 25% of the risk. That tells us most volatility is coming from the growth-heavy core, with the more diversified funds modestly smoothing things out. With only three positions, it’s natural that the top holdings account for essentially all portfolio risk.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
The correlation data shows that the Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF move almost identically. Correlation is a measure of how often two investments move in the same direction at the same time; high correlation means they behave quite similarly, especially during big market moves. In this case, the US growth fund and the total US market fund don’t provide much diversification from each other in terms of short-term movement. Instead, most diversification benefits likely come from the international fund and the smaller, less visible holdings inside the broader ETFs that aren’t captured in the top-10 overlap list.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart uses an efficient frontier, which shows the best possible return for each level of risk using these same holdings. The current portfolio sits on or very close to that curve, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68, while the theoretical “optimal” mix of the same funds has a Sharpe of 0.85 at slightly higher risk. Sharpe ratio is a simple way to compare risk-adjusted returns — higher means more return per unit of volatility. The minimum-variance mix has lower risk but also much lower expected return. The key point is that, given these three ETFs, the current allocation is already quite efficient for its chosen risk level.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.80%
The total dividend yield for this portfolio is about 0.8%, which is relatively low compared with more income-focused strategies. That lines up with the growth tilt and the tech-heavy composition — many high-growth companies reinvest earnings instead of paying large dividends. The international ETF boosts yield somewhat at 2.5%, while the US large-cap growth fund is very low at 0.4%. In practice, this means most of the portfolio’s long-term return is expected to come from price appreciation rather than regular income. For someone tracking cash flows, dividend income here will likely feel modest compared with the swings in market value.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are impressively low across all three ETFs: expense ratios range from 0.03% to 0.05%, with a blended total around 0.04%. The expense ratio is the annual fee charged by a fund, and even small percentages compound over time. Here, the fee level is well below typical active funds and competitive even among index trackers. That’s a real strength: more of the portfolio’s gross return is kept by the investor instead of being lost to fees year after year. Over long horizons, this low-cost structure can make a noticeable difference in ending wealth, especially when combined with broad, market-like exposure.
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