Highly concentrated semiconductor growth portfolio with strong historic returns and significant volatility exposure
Report created on Apr 24, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc
AMD - US0079031078 20.00% -
MU Micron Technology Inc
MU - US5951121038 15.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 15.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 15.00% -
VT Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VT - US9220427424 15.00% -
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM - US8740391003 12.00% -
SO iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX - US4642875235 8.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from equities and is heavily concentrated in a handful of semiconductor names. Three single stocks – Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology, and Taiwan Semiconductor – together make up 47% of the total weight. The rest is spread across broad equity ETFs, plus a focused semiconductor ETF, but even these funds lean toward large US growth companies. A structure like this means individual company moves, especially in chips, can have an outsized impact on the whole portfolio. While the presence of broad-market ETFs adds some breadth, the overall feel here is more like a focused thematic bet than a widely diversified stock basket.
Growth
Historically, this portfolio has delivered extremely strong returns, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.05% versus about 15% for the US market and 12% for the global market. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing out the bumps. That outperformance came with deep swings: the max drawdown reached -57%, compared to roughly -34% for the benchmarks, and it took over a year to recover. Only 48 trading days generated 90% of total gains, meaning results were driven by a small number of big up days. This pattern is typical for concentrated, high-growth portfolios.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past volatility and return patterns to simulate many random future paths, like running 1,000 alternate timelines for the same portfolio. Here, the median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,762 over 15 years, implying roughly 8% annualized across all simulations. The “likely range” is wide, from under $2,000 to over $4,000, and the broader 5–95% band runs from about flat to more than sevenfold. This shows that while positive outcomes are more common in the simulations, the spread between good and bad paths is large. As always, these projections depend on historical data that may not repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in a single asset class: stocks. There is no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. An all-equity mix like this typically amplifies both upside and downside because there is nothing in the mix that usually acts as a stabilizer when markets fall. Compared with broad market benchmarks that include a wide range of sectors and sometimes other asset types in a broader context, this portfolio leans fully into equity risk. That focus lines up with the “aggressive” risk classification and helps explain both the powerful long-term performance and the large historical drawdowns seen in the data.
Sectors
- Technology 71%
- Financials 5%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Health Care 4%
- Industrials 4%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, technology dominates at 71%, with the rest spread thinly across areas like financials, telecom, consumer, health care, and industrials. That technology concentration is consistent with the heavy semiconductor and US growth tilt. When one sector is such a large share, portfolio behavior tends to track that sector’s cycle: strong rallies when conditions favor tech, and sharper pullbacks when interest rates rise or sentiment turns against growth names. Compared with broad benchmarks that spread weight more evenly, this sector profile is intentionally unbalanced. It’s a clear, focused exposure rather than a neutral reflection of the wider economy.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Asia Emerging 13%
- Europe Developed 3%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Japan 1%
Geographically, about 81% of the portfolio is tied to North America, with smaller slices in emerging Asia (13%), developed Europe (3%), and minor exposure to Japan and other developed Asia. This creates a strong US-led profile, even though one of the biggest single names, Taiwan Semiconductor, sits in emerging Asia. Relative to global equity indices, which usually allocate more to non-US markets, this is a noticeable home bias toward the US. That concentration has recently been beneficial, given US tech strength, but it also means portfolio fortunes are closely linked to one main economy and currency, with limited regional diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 72%
- Large-cap 18%
- Mid-cap 9%
- Small-cap 1%
The market cap breakdown shows a clear tilt toward the largest companies, with 72% in mega-caps and another 18% in large caps. Mid- and small-caps together make up only about 10%. Market capitalization is simply a company’s total market value; mega-caps are the global giants that often dominate indices and news headlines. A mega-cap heavy portfolio tends to be more tied to broad index moves and may be less sensitive to the idiosyncratic risks of tiny firms, though single-name volatility can still be high in specific industries. Compared with a size-balanced approach, this structure downplays smaller-company exposure.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.16%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.73%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 63.87%
Looking through the ETFs into their top holdings, the portfolio shows meaningful overlap around leading semiconductor and big tech names. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron both appear as direct holdings and inside ETFs, nudging their true exposures slightly above the headline weights. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Amazon, and Alphabet also show up via multiple funds. Overlap matters because it can create “hidden” concentration: different tickers that all react to the same underlying companies or themes. Note that this overlap is likely understated, since only ETF top-10 positions are included, so actual duplication further down the holdings lists is not captured here.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factors, the portfolio shows high exposure to momentum (70%) and quality (68%), with low tilts to value, size, yield, and low volatility. Factor exposure describes how much the portfolio leans into traits like recent performance (momentum) or strong balance sheets and profitability (quality). A strong momentum tilt often does well when trends persist but can be hit hard in sharp reversals. The quality tilt can sometimes cushion that by favoring financially stronger businesses. The low readings for value and yield reflect the growth-oriented style and modest income profile, while the low-volatility score aligns with the large price swings seen historically.
Risk contribution
-
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
Weight: 20.00% 33.6% -
Micron Technology Inc
Weight: 15.00% 20.9% -
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Weight: 12.00% 11.2% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 15.00% 9.9% -
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 8.00% 8.8% - Top 5 risk contribution 84.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each position adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ a lot from its weight. Here, AMD is 20% of the portfolio but drives about 34% of total risk, and Micron is 15% of the weight but about 21% of risk. Together with Taiwan Semiconductor, the top three holdings account for roughly two-thirds of total risk. This means day-to-day performance is heavily dictated by just a few names. The broad ETFs, despite meaningful weights, contribute less risk per dollar invested, acting more like stabilizers around the concentrated core of individual semiconductor stocks.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFVanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The correlation data highlights that some ETF pairs move almost in lockstep, especially Schwab US Large-Cap Growth with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and the S&P 500 ETF with the Vanguard Total World ETF. Correlation measures how closely assets move together; a value near 1 means they generally rise and fall at the same time. When holdings are highly correlated, they offer less diversification benefit during stress periods, because everything tends to move in the same direction. In this portfolio, these similar broad-market funds essentially reinforce a single large-cap growth pattern rather than adding significantly different behavior.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk-versus-return chart, the current portfolio sits slightly below the efficient frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.04 versus 1.21 for the optimal mix. The Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted return, comparing excess return over a risk‑free rate to volatility. Being below the frontier means that, using only these existing holdings, a different weighting could have delivered historically better return for the same risk, or similar return with less risk. The minimum variance mix would significantly lower volatility but also reduces expected return. Overall, the current allocation is reasonably effective but not fully optimized.
Dividends
- Micron Technology Inc 0.10%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.40%
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.80%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 1.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.62%
Income from this portfolio is modest, with an overall dividend yield of about 0.62%. Yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the investment value. Individual holdings like Micron, the growth and semiconductor ETFs, and Taiwan Semiconductor pay small dividends, while the broad Vanguard ETFs offer somewhat higher but still moderate yields, topping out around 1.7%. In practice, this means most of the total return historically has come from price changes rather than cash income. That’s consistent with the growth and technology focus, where companies often reinvest profits into expansion instead of paying out high dividends.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.07%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are impressively low, with a total estimated expense ratio around 0.05% across the ETF sleeve. TER (Total Expense Ratio) is the annual fee charged by a fund, taken out of its assets behind the scenes. The broad Vanguard and Schwab ETFs are especially cheap, and even the more specialized semiconductor ETF is still in a reasonable range. Low ongoing costs help more of the portfolio’s gross returns show up in net performance over time, especially when compounded over many years. Combined with the strong historic returns, this cost profile is a structural positive and aligns well with low-fee best practices.
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