The portfolio predominantly consists of ETFs with a heavy allocation towards the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares at 70%, supplemented by targeted exposures to the S&P 500 through the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF and Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF, each at 10%. The inclusion of the Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF, both at 5%, introduces thematic and size diversification. This composition suggests a growth-oriented strategy with a bias towards large-cap and technology sectors, reflecting a higher risk tolerance but with broad geographic coverage.
With a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.80% and a maximum drawdown of -34.14%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong growth potential albeit with significant volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 17.0 days highlights the portfolio's reliance on short periods of high returns. This performance, while impressive, underscores the importance of risk management and the potential for wide fluctuations in value.
Utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation to project future performance, with 1,000 scenarios, shows a wide range of outcomes from 102.2% to 1,737.0% at key percentiles, underscoring the uncertainty inherent in investing. The average annualized return across all simulations stands at 22.29%, suggesting optimistic growth potential. However, it's crucial to remember that such simulations are based on historical data and cannot guarantee future results.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks (99%), with a minimal cash holding (1%). This allocation is indicative of a growth-focused strategy aiming for higher returns, which inherently comes with higher risk. The lack of fixed income or alternative investments limits the portfolio's ability to hedge against stock market volatility.
Sector allocation reveals a strong emphasis on technology (28%), financial services (17%), and consumer cyclicals (11%), which are sectors typically associated with higher growth but also higher volatility. This sectoral focus may enhance returns during bull markets but can lead to greater drawdowns during corrections or bear markets, especially considering the portfolio's significant technology weighting.
Geographic allocation shows a heavy North American focus (74%), with modest exposures to developed Europe (11%) and emerging Asian markets (4%). This geographic distribution supports the portfolio's growth orientation but may limit global diversification benefits. Expanding into underrepresented regions could offer additional growth opportunities and risk mitigation through broader international exposure.
The market capitalization breakdown with 42% in mega, 31% in big, 16% in medium, 6% in small, and 3% in micro-cap stocks, illustrates a preference for larger, more established companies, likely chosen for their perceived stability and growth potential. However, this focus may reduce opportunities for outsized gains from smaller, more agile companies.
The high correlation between the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares and the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF suggests redundancy, as these ETFs likely hold many of the same stocks, particularly large-cap U.S. equities. This redundancy could be limiting the portfolio's diversification benefits, making it more susceptible to market downturns affecting those stocks.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current configuration suggests room for optimization, particularly by addressing the overlap between the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares and the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF. Reducing this redundancy could improve diversification without sacrificing growth potential. Utilizing the Efficient Frontier concept could further refine the risk-return profile, aiming for the optimal balance based on the investor's risk tolerance.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at 1.54%, which, while not the primary focus, contributes to total returns. This yield, driven by allocations to ETFs with varying dividend strategies, offers a balance between growth potential and income generation, suitable for investors seeking both capital appreciation and passive income.
With a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.09%, the portfolio benefits from low costs, enhancing net returns over time. This cost efficiency is crucial for long-term growth, as even small differences in fees can have a significant impact on investment outcomes due to the compounding effect.
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