Strong US momentum and value stock mix with moderate diversification and historically high returns
Report created on Aug 28, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 60.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 10.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00%
This portfolio is a concentrated, high‑equity mix built around US stocks. About 60% sits in a momentum‑focused S&P 500 ETF, 20% in a US small‑cap value ETF, 10% in a broad US total market ETF, and 10% in a global ex‑US total stock ETF. So, it’s 100% in stocks with a clear tilt toward factor strategies rather than plain indexing. This structure pushes growth potential but also means returns are strongly tied to how US momentum and small‑cap value perform. The 10% international sleeve adds a bit of global reach, but the core engine is clearly US‑driven with a growth‑oriented risk profile, which aligns with the “growth” risk classification.
Growth
From late 2019 to August 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio would have grown to about $3,409. That works out to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.45%, versus 16.34% for the US market and 13.95% for the global market. CAGR is like your average yearly “speed” over the whole trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The portfolio also saw a max drawdown of -34.55% during the early 2020 crash, similar in depth to the benchmarks, but it recovered within about four months. This mix has historically rewarded risk with higher returns, but the sharp fall shows it still feels full equity‑market shocks.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks forward 15 years by simulating many possible paths based on historical ups and downs. Think of it as running 1,000 “what if” market histories using the same volatility and relationships between holdings. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,781, with a wide “likely” range from $1,775 to $4,266. The broad 5–95% band, from roughly $974 to $7,319, underlines that outcomes could vary a lot. The average simulated annual return is 8.12%, which is lower than the past CAGR, reminding that historical strength doesn’t guarantee similar future results, especially for factor‑tilted, all‑equity portfolios.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in equities, with no bonds or cash‑like assets listed in the allocation. That makes the growth engine very strong but also means there’s no built‑in ballast that typically dampens volatility during market stress. Compared with balanced portfolios that might include fixed income or cash, this structure tends to swing more with the stock market cycle. Against broad equity benchmarks, the overall equity share is similar, but many investors often pair stocks with other asset classes for smoother rides. Here, diversification happens within stocks themselves, not across different asset types, so equity market direction remains the dominant driver.
Sectors
- Technology 38%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 12%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector exposure leans heavily toward technology at 38%, with meaningful slices in financials, industrials, health care, telecom, consumer areas, energy, and smaller allocations to materials, real estate, and utilities. This pattern is more tech‑tilted than many broad global benchmarks, which usually have a lower tech share. Tech and related growth areas can boost returns during innovation‑driven or low‑rate environments but may be more sensitive when interest rates rise or sentiment shifts away from high‑growth names. The presence of sectors like financials and industrials supports some economic diversification, yet the tech overweight means portfolio behavior is likely closely tied to how that single, more volatile segment performs over time.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Japan 2%
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio sits in North America, with small exposures to developed Europe, Japan, and emerging and developed Asia. That’s a much stronger home‑country tilt than global market indices, where the US tends to be closer to 60% of total equity weight. A US‑heavy stance can be beneficial when that market outperforms, as it has for much of the last decade, but it also concentrates economic and currency risk in one region. The modest non‑US slice still adds some diversification, letting the portfolio tap into different growth drivers, but global events that hurt US markets will likely dominate overall outcomes here.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 37%
- Mega-cap 31%
- Small-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 10%
- Mid-cap 10%
Market cap exposure is spread across the spectrum: around 31% in mega‑caps, 37% in large‑caps, and the remaining roughly one‑third split among mid‑, small‑, and micro‑caps. This is more tilted toward smaller companies than a typical cap‑weighted US index, where mega‑ and large‑caps usually dominate. Smaller companies often carry higher volatility but can offer stronger growth in certain cycles. The blend here means performance won’t move exactly like a pure large‑cap benchmark. Instead, it may benefit more when smaller companies are in favor and feel sharper swings when those segments lag or face liquidity and sentiment shocks during stressed market conditions.
True holdings
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 6.21%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 2.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
CA Caterpillar Inc 1.49%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 32.13%
Looking through ETF top‑10 holdings, several big names repeat, especially in technology and communication‑related companies like NVIDIA, Micron, Broadcom, and Alphabet. For instance, Micron and NVIDIA together account for over 12% of the portfolio through ETFs, and a handful of other giants add notable extra weight. Because the look‑through only covers top‑10 ETF holdings, this likely understates true overlap, but it still shows hidden concentration in a few large, growth‑oriented firms. When the same company appears in multiple funds, its fortunes can have an outsized impact, even if no single ETF position looks extreme, making portfolio behavior more tied to these specific names.
Factors
Factor exposure shows clear tilts toward value at 60% and momentum at 64%, while size, quality, and low volatility sit near neutral, and yield is modest at 40%. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of stocks that research links to returns over time. A value tilt means more exposure to stocks trading cheaper relative to fundamentals, which can shine after growth‑heavy phases but lag during long growth booms. High momentum exposure tilts toward recent winners, which often helps in strong, trending markets but can hurt during sharp reversals. The low yield reading fits with a growth‑oriented style that prioritizes price appreciation over income.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 60.00% 62.2% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.2% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 9.0% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 7.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, not just its share of dollars. The momentum ETF, at 60% weight, contributes about 62.2% of total risk, and the small‑cap value ETF, at 20%, adds 21.18%. That means these two factor funds together account for over 83% of total volatility. The international ETF, despite being 10% of assets, contributes only 7.58% of risk, slightly dampening overall swings. Top three positions driving more than 92% of risk signals that, in practice, portfolio behavior is mostly shaped by those core US factor ETFs, with the remaining piece having a more modest stabilizing role.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares different mixes of the same holdings to see which offers the best trade‑off between risk and return. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.76, while the “optimal” mix reaches 0.94 with slightly higher risk and return. The minimum‑variance mix reduces volatility but with a lower Sharpe of 0.66. A Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk, adjusting for a risk‑free rate, like judging how much extra “pay” you get for each unit of discomfort. Since the current portfolio already sits on or very near the frontier, its weighting is considered efficient for its chosen risk level.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.01%
The overall dividend yield of about 1.01% is on the low side compared with many broad stock indices. Individual ETF yields range from 0.70% for the momentum fund up to 2.50% for the international ETF. This mix signals that the portfolio is geared more toward price growth than cash payouts. Dividends can help smooth returns and provide some income, but lower‑yielding, growth‑oriented strategies often reinvest profits into expansion instead. Historically, total return combines both price changes and dividends, so a lower yield doesn’t necessarily mean lower total returns—it just shifts more of the expected payoff toward capital appreciation rather than regular cash flow.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
The portfolio’s weighted Total Expense Ratio (TER) comes in at a low 0.14%, with individual funds ranging from 0.03% to 0.25%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, like a small haircut on returns each year. Compared with many actively managed products or higher‑fee factor funds, these costs are impressively low and supportive of long‑term compounding. When fees stay modest, more of any market upside flows through to the investor instead of being eaten by expenses. This alignment with low‑cost, ETF‑based implementation is a structural strength of the portfolio and forms a solid foundation for an equity‑heavy, factor‑tilted strategy.
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