Highly concentrated US tech and semiconductor portfolio with strong historic growth and large single stock exposure
Report created on Apr 30, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 20.00% -
VG Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
VGT - US92204A7028 20.00% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 5.00% -
AV Broadcom Inc
AVGO - US11135F1012 3.00% -
MU Micron Technology Inc
MU - US5951121038 2.00%
This portfolio is tightly focused, with 100% in equities and a heavy tilt toward US technology and semiconductors. Half sits in a broad US market ETF, while the rest is split between a semiconductor ETF, a tech ETF, and three individual chip stocks. That mix gives a core holding plus strong “satellites” in one theme. Structurally, this is an aggressive, growth-oriented setup with relatively low diversification across sectors and regions. The broad ETF helps smooth some of the bumps, but the dedicated semiconductor and tech positions pull the overall profile toward higher volatility and more sensitivity to what happens in one specific industry.
Growth
Over the last decade, $1,000 in this portfolio historically grew to about $21,087, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.83%. CAGR is like your average yearly “speed” over the full journey. That far outpaced both the US and global markets, which grew around 15% and 12% a year. The trade-off was a max drawdown of about -44%, meaning at one point it was nearly half off its peak before recovering. That’s a deep but not unusual swing for a concentrated growth portfolio. Returns were also lumpy: 90% of gains came in just 56 days, so missing a few strong days would have mattered a lot.
Projection
The forward projection uses Monte Carlo simulation, which runs 1,000 “what if” scenarios based on historical patterns and volatility. It’s like simulating many alternate timelines for the same starting portfolio. The median outcome shows $1,000 growing to about $2,717 over 15 years, or roughly 8.08% per year across all simulations. The range is wide: from about $962 at the low end (5th percentile) to $7,463 at the high end (95th percentile). This highlights that even with historically strong results, future paths can vary a lot. As always, these are statistical forecasts, not promises; markets can behave very differently from the past.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash-like assets, or alternatives. Being 100% equity means full exposure to market ups and downs, with no built-in stabilizers that often come from bonds or other defensive assets. Compared with a more mixed asset blend, this setup typically sees larger swings in value, both positive and negative. The advantage is full participation when equities run strongly; the downside is there’s nothing inside the portfolio specifically intended to cushion large declines. This all-equity structure aligns with the “aggressive” risk classification and helps explain both the strong historic returns and the deep drawdowns.
Sectors
- Technology 67%
- Financials 6%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Health Care 5%
- Industrials 4%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, about 67% of the portfolio sits in technology, with the rest spread thinly across areas like financials, telecom, consumer, health care, and others. That’s far more concentrated than broad equity benchmarks, where tech is important but not dominant to this degree. A tech-heavy portfolio often behaves very differently around interest rate moves, innovation cycles, and shifts in market sentiment toward growth companies. It can outperform strongly when technology is in favor, as seen historically here, but may also be more vulnerable during periods when investors rotate toward more defensive or value-oriented sectors.
Regions
- North America 96%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, around 96% of the portfolio is in North America, with tiny exposure to developed Asia and Europe. By contrast, global equity benchmarks usually have much more non-US exposure. This concentration ties performance closely to the US economy, US policy, and the US dollar. When the US market and currency do well, that sort of home bias can add a tailwind. But it also means the portfolio captures very little of what happens in other major markets, whether that’s growth opportunities or diversification benefits when other regions move differently from the US.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 52%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 13%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
In terms of market capitalization, this portfolio leans strongly toward mega-cap and large-cap stocks, which together make up about 84% of exposure. Mid-caps, small-caps, and micro-caps are present but only around 16% in total. Larger companies tend to have more established businesses and slightly lower volatility than very small firms, though in tech and semiconductors they can still swing quite a lot. This cap structure means the portfolio is anchored in big, well-known names that often drive major indices, while still having some exposure to smaller, potentially more explosive but also riskier companies.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 6.50%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.50%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.56%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.50%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.23%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 45.42%
Looking through the ETFs to their top holdings, there is notable overlap in a few key names. NVIDIA shows up with about 16.05% total exposure combining the direct stock and ETF positions. Broadcom sits at 6.80% in total, and Micron at 3.34%. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, Alphabet, TSMC, and Intel also appear through the funds. Overlap means the portfolio is less diversified than the number of line items suggests, because several positions all lean on the same companies. Since only ETF top-10s are included, true concentration is likely somewhat higher than these numbers show.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposure, this portfolio shows high quality, with a score of 60%. “Quality” captures traits like strong balance sheets and consistent profitability, which often help during tougher market periods. Value is low at 33% and yield is low at 40%, meaning a tilt away from cheaper, high-dividend stocks and toward growthier names. Low volatility is also low at 35%, so the portfolio tends to favor more volatile stocks relative to the broad market. Size and momentum sit near neutral, suggesting no big lean toward smaller companies or recent winners overall. Put together, this looks like a quality-tilted growth profile with relatively high risk.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 36.9% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 20.00% 26.6% -
Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 20.7% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 5.00% 8.8% -
Broadcom Inc
Weight: 3.00% 3.9% - Top 5 risk contribution 96.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 ETF is 50% of the portfolio but contributes only about 36.87% of the risk, making it relatively stabilizing. The semiconductor ETF and tech ETF together are 40% of the portfolio but about 47% of risk. Individual NVIDIA at 5% weight contributes 8.75% of risk, a lot for its size. Overall, the top three holdings drive 84.25% of total volatility, underscoring how a handful of positions control most of the portfolio’s behavior despite several separate line items.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.93, which measures return per unit of risk above a 4% risk-free rate. The “optimal” mix of these same holdings reaches a higher Sharpe of 1.38, but at much higher volatility and return, while the minimum variance mix has lower risk and a Sharpe of 0.81. The current allocation sits about 2.63 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level. That means, historically, different weights among the same funds and stocks could have delivered better risk-adjusted results without adding new holdings.
Dividends
- Broadcom Inc 0.60%
- Micron Technology Inc 0.10%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.69%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 0.69%, which is low compared with broader equity markets. Most of the income comes from the S&P 500 ETF at 1.10%, with small contributions from the tech and semiconductor ETFs and from Broadcom and Micron. In practice, this means total return has been driven mainly by price growth rather than cash payouts. For growth-focused, tech-heavy portfolios, that’s common: companies often reinvest earnings instead of paying high dividends. The flip side is that income from this portfolio is modest, so its value will depend more on future capital gains than on regular cash distributions.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%
On costs, the weighted total expense ratio (TER) is low at about 0.10%. The S&P 500 ETF is especially cheap at 0.03%, the tech ETF at 0.10%, and the semiconductor ETF is higher at 0.35% but still reasonable for a niche theme. Low ongoing fees mean less drag on returns year after year, which can add up significantly over long periods. In this case, costs are impressively low for such a specialized exposure mix, giving the portfolio a structural advantage compared with higher-fee approaches that try to capture similar themes.
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