Efficient but slightly masochistic factor junkie portfolio cosplaying as a plain boring index mix
Report created on Apr 16, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 15.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00%
This thing is a barbell: two sleepy total-market funds pretending to be “set and forget,” plus two Avantis small-value rockets strapped on like aftermarket turbochargers. On the surface it looks like a lazy three-fund portfolio, but under the hood you’ve cranked the “spicy” dial to 7/10. It’s still simple enough not to be a spreadsheet hobby, but the tilt to small and value means you’ve opted into a bumpier ride than the “Growth Investor” label suggests. Takeaway: structure is clean and coherent, but don’t kid yourself — this is not a gentle glide path, it’s a roller coaster with very clear design choices.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio has done quite well: turning $1,000 into $2,371 with a 14.17% CAGR is nothing to complain about. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is basically your average “speed” over the whole trip, potholes included. You slightly lagged the US market but beat the global market, which is exactly what a US-tilted but not totally-US portfolio should do. The max drawdown of -37% in COVID land reminds you this isn’t a “sleep like a baby” setup. Past data is yesterday’s weather: it shows this mix can deliver, but also slam you hard when markets panic.
Projection
Monte Carlo simulation is basically running your portfolio through 1,000 alternate universes to see what usually happens if returns behave like the past-ish. Median outcome: $1,000 becomes about $2,684 in 15 years; the pessimistic-but-not-apocalyptic 5th percentile barely preserves capital, while the lucky 95th percentile is full send. That 8% expected annual return sounds nice until you notice how wide the range is — this is not a smooth bond ladder. Takeaway: odds of a positive outcome are solid, but the path is noisy. If you emotionally need a straight line, this setup is going to annoy you.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset allocation is the subtle art of mixing ingredients. You went with “all meat, no vegetables”: 100% stocks. No bonds, no cash buffer, no stabilizers — just pure equity exposure like it’s always 1982 and rates are falling forever. That’s fine for a long horizon and strong stomach, but it absolutely does not play nice with short-term spending needs or sleep issues. When markets drop 30–40%, this portfolio isn’t asking if you’re okay; it’s handing you the full experience. Takeaway: this is an “I don’t need the money for a long time” structure, not a “retiring soon” one.
Sectors
- Technology 21%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 7%
- Basic Materials 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector mix screams “I am the market, but with a caffeine shot.” Tech at 21% is hefty but not absurd given broad indexes; financials and industrials are also chunky, hinting that the small-value tilt is sneaking in lots of boring-but-volatile companies that don’t trend on social media. Real estate and utilities barely exist here, so defensive ballast is minimal. You’ve said yes to economically sensitive sectors and shrugged at the stabilizers. Takeaway: this tilts toward stuff that does well when growth is strong and gets punched in the face when recessions show up.
Regions
- North America 68%
- Europe Developed 13%
- Japan 8%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is very “US is home base, everything else is side quest”: about 68% North America and 32% scattered across the rest of the planet. Compared to true global weightings, that’s still a patriotic bias, but for a US investor it’s actually more reasonable than the usual “America or bust” chaos. You at least remembered that Europe, Japan, and friends exist. Takeaway: global allocation is not insane — you’ve got real overseas exposure — but the US is clearly the main character and everyone else is supporting cast.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 30%
- Large-cap 22%
- Mid-cap 21%
- Small-cap 18%
- Micro-cap 9%
The market-cap breakdown is where the personality shows: 30% mega, 22% large, then a solid 21% mid, 18% small, and even 9% micro. Translation: you didn’t just tilt to small caps; you actually invited the sketchy cousins from micro-cap land too. That’s where volatility lives and liquidity occasionally forgets to show up. The tradeoff: small caps can juice long-term returns but also blow up your year more often. Takeaway: this isn’t a size-neutral portfolio; it’s deliberately leaning into the “rough around the edges” end of town hoping to get paid for the drama.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.96%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.00%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.83%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.69%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 16.01%
The look-through shows the usual suspects: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta — the whole tech celebrity squad — all coming in through your total-market funds. You’re not buying them directly, but you’re still very much attending the mega-cap party. Because this only uses top-10 ETF holdings, the actual overlap is probably worse than advertised, like seeing just the tip of the iceberg and assuming that’s the whole thing. Takeaway: you’ve layered spicy small-value over a core that’s still dominated by the same handful of glamour giants everyone else owns, just with more nuance.
Factors
Factor-wise, the portfolio is loudly screaming “value” (64%) and “size” (60%), with everything else hanging around neutral. Factors are the hidden ingredients — things like cheap vs expensive, big vs small — that explain why portfolios behave differently even when they look similar. You’ve chosen the classic nerd combo: smaller, cheaper companies. Historically, that can help over long stretches, but it often underperforms for painfully long periods while shiny growth stocks hog the headlines. Takeaway: this is a deliberate factor bet, not an accident. It should do fine over decades, but it will absolutely test your faith along the way.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 50.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 19.1% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.6% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 13.3%
Risk contribution tells you who is actually swinging the portfolio around, not just who’s biggest on the holdings list. Your total US market ETF is 50% of the portfolio and contributes about 50% of the risk — nice and proportional. The US small-value fund is the noisy neighbor: 15% weight, over 19% of risk, clearly more hyper than its size suggests. The international small-value piece is oddly well-behaved given its label. Takeaway: if this ever feels too wild, the obvious place to dial back the drama is the US small-value sleeve, not the broad market funds.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk vs return chart, your current mix sits below the efficient frontier — 1.13% of annual return left on the table at the same risk. The Sharpe ratio of 0.57 vs 0.80 for the optimal mix is the math version of “good, but not using its full potential.” The efficient frontier is just the best trade-off line you can get with these same ingredients, different recipe. Takeaway: the holdings are fine, the weights are a bit sloppy. Reweighting what you already own — no new toys required — could squeeze out better risk-adjusted returns without changing the overall vibe.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.72%
A total yield of 1.72% is politely saying, “You’re here for growth, not income.” The slightly higher yields from the international and small-value funds help a bit, but this is not an income engine — more like a modest trickle you reinvest and mostly ignore. Relying on this for living expenses would be like trying to live off sample cups at Costco. Takeaway: this setup fits a reinvest-everything, build-the-snowball approach, not a “pay my bills” phase. For now, that’s consistent with the growth-first risk profile, but don’t pretend it’s secretly a dividend strategy.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.12%
Costs are where this portfolio quietly flexes. A total TER of 0.12% is impressively low given you snuck in two active-ish factor funds. The Vanguard core is practically free at 0.03% and 0.05%, and the Avantis stuff charges more but not “luxury handbag” prices. Fees are like a slow leak in your returns; you’ve basically patched that tire nicely. Takeaway: cost discipline is on point — you’re paying just enough to get factor exposure without lighting money on fire. Someone either did some homework here or got accidentally competent clicking.
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