Calm looking index portfolio secretly turbocharged with factor sauce and a mild S&P 500 addiction
Report created on Mar 24, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VU Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
VUAA - IE00BFMXXD54 60.00% -
EX Xtrackers MSCI World ex USA UCITS ETF 1C USD EUR
EXUS - IE0006WW1TQ4 20.00% -
IS iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
IS3N - IE00BKM4GZ66 10.00% -
AV Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
AVWS - IE0003R87OG3 10.00%
Structurally, this thing is a three‑ETF index sandwich with a sliver of spice on top. Sixty percent straight S&P 500, twenty percent “rest of developed world,” plus ten percent emerging markets and ten percent global small value. It screams “I like simple… but I also spent a weekend on financial YouTube.” The core is classic: big US-heavy equity blob. The twist is that 10% small cap value, which turns the supposedly boring index mix into a mild factor experiment. The main issue: you’re 100% in stocks while flying under a “balanced” risk label, which is like calling Red Bull a soft drink and then wondering why your hands shake.
Growth
Performance so far: you’ve basically speed‑ran a decent bull phase. CAGR of 10.33% versus 7.74% for the US market and 9.24% for global, plus you beat both on end value. Nice. But the max drawdown of –21.45% in under two years is your reminder that this “balanced” profile is emotionally unbalanced. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like your average speed on a road trip; a few good days can make the journey look smoother than it felt. And with only ~18 months of data, this is less “track record” and more “cute backstory.” Don’t build your confidence entirely on this tiny sample.
Projection
Monte Carlo simulation is basically a financial dice‑rolling machine: it takes past behavior, shakes it up 1,000 ways, and shows a range of future outcomes. Your 10‑year projections look hilariously optimistic at first glance: median total return near 400%, with even the 5th percentile still above water. That’s the model saying, “Yeah, this might work out great,” while quietly whispering, “based on less than two years of data.” Past data is like yesterday’s weather — useful, but no oracle. The real takeaway: a 100% equity mix can deliver big upside, but that 70.2% at the 5th percentile is code for “it can also feel awful for a long time.”
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown: stocks, stocks, and more stocks. A “balanced” label with 100% equity exposure is some peak marketing comedy. There is zero built‑in shock absorber here — no bonds, no cash buffer, nothing designed to bleed less when markets decide to swan‑dive. Being all‑equity is fine if the time horizon is long and the stomach is made of steel, but it’s wildly misaligned with any idea of short‑term stability. Asset allocation is basically deciding how much pain you’re willing to feel in a crash. You’ve chosen “all of it” while pretending it’s middle of the road. At least own that choice mentally.
Sectors
- Technology 26%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 5%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector mix: 26% technology, then financials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals trailing behind. There’s a clear “growthy modern economy” tilt, even if you pretend you just bought broad-market funds. Tech at a quarter of the portfolio means your returns are heavily wired to innovation narratives, hype cycles, and rate-sensitive valuations. Financials and industrials give it some old‑school backbone, but let’s be real: when tech runs, this portfolio flies; when tech gets punched, this thing eats pavement. Sector exposure is like your flavor profile: you didn’t pick pure tech, but you definitely ordered the spicy version of global equities.
Regions
- North America 69%
- Europe Developed 13%
- Japan 5%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geography: 69% North America. So yes, America or bust — but with enough non‑US allocation (31%) to claim you “invest globally” at dinner parties. Europe, Japan, and other developed Asia show up as side characters, while emerging markets get a tiny speaking role at 4% Asia EM plus scraps elsewhere. This is basically the default global cap‑weighted bias plus a little extra US via the S&P 500 core. The upside: you’re riding the world’s dominant capital market. The downside: if US valuations or the dollar wobble, your portfolio takes the full emotional hit. Global investing this isn’t; it’s more like global‑ish.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 3%
Market cap spread: 44% mega, 31% big, 16% medium, only 9% in small and micro. Your supposed “global small cap value” spice is more like a decorative parsley leaf on a mega‑cap steak. This portfolio worships the giants: stable, liquid, index‑friendly behemoths that move the indexes and your net worth in sync. The small and micro slice can add some return potential and diversification, but at this size, it’s more personality trait than structural feature. Market cap balance is like having a team: you stacked it with celebrities, threw in a few scrappy bench players, and called it “deep.”
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.40%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
AA Apple Inc 3.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.54%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.44%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
- Top 10 total 22.12%
The look‑through is basically a who’s‑who of mega‑cap growth darlings: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, TSMC, Broadcom. You’re not stock‑picking, but you might as well be fan‑boying the Magnificent Ten through ETFs. And that’s with only 27.8% coverage of the portfolio by top holdings — overlap is very likely worse under the surface. Hidden concentration means that when big tech sneezes, your “diversified” portfolio catches a cold. Diversification isn’t about how many tickers you own; it’s about how many *different stories* you’re actually exposed to. Right now, a lot of your plot lines star the same characters.
Factors
Factor profile: heavy value, decent momentum, chunky low volatility, with size exposure leaning a bit smaller than pure mega‑cap. Factor exposure is the hidden ingredients list explaining why your portfolio behaves the way it does. You’ve somehow managed to load value, low vol, and momentum at once — like ordering a burger that’s spicy, extra lean, and diet-friendly. It kind of works, but you clearly didn’t obsess over the recipe; you just tossed in Avantis and hoped for the best. The coverage is patchy (43.3% average signal), so don’t read this like holy scripture. Still, this mix should be slightly steadier and less bubble‑prone than pure growth, if you can stay awake during the boring years.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
Weight: 60.00% 65.0% -
Xtrackers MSCI World ex USA UCITS ETF 1C USD EUR
Weight: 20.00% 15.5% -
Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
Weight: 10.00% 10.9% -
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
Weight: 10.00% 8.6%
Risk contribution is about who’s really rocking the boat, not just who’s sitting in it. Your 60% S&P 500 position contributes nearly 65% of total risk — unsurprising, but still a bit “one ETF to rule them all.” The Avantis small cap value at 10% weight punches slightly above its size in risk, which is what small caps do: they make everything more exciting, not necessarily better. Top three holdings driving over 91% of risk means the other pieces are mostly set dressing. Trimming or reweighting the main blobs could meaningfully reshape how this thing behaves without changing the ingredients list, just the portions.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Risk vs. return is where the quiet insult is hiding. Your current setup has an expected return of 10.52% with 14.94% risk and a Sharpe ratio of 0.57. The same holdings, reweighted more intelligently, could get a Sharpe of 0.87 at slightly higher risk or 0.77 at lower risk. Translation: you’re leaving efficiency on the table for no good reason. Being below the efficient frontier is like driving a Ferrari stuck in second gear — loud, fast‑ish, but nowhere near what it could do. Even at the same risk level, a different weight mix could push expected return up to 15.68%. That’s a big upgrade for literally zero new products.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS 0.18%
- Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc 0.07%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are where you accidentally nailed it. A total TER of 0.06% is comically low — basically paying couch-cushion money to rent the entire listed world. Vanguard at 0.07% and EM at 0.18% are textbook examples of not lighting fees on fire. You’ve avoided the classic “fancy wrapper, stupidly high cost” trap, which already puts you ahead of a scary chunk of investors. Cheaper doesn’t mean risk‑free, but it does mean more of the returns actually stay in your pocket. If you’re going to YOLO into 100% equities, at least you didn’t tip the house 1% a year for the privilege.
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