Focused US stock portfolio with strong large cap tilt and moderate momentum overlay
Report created on Apr 7, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 25.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00% -
XL Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
XLE - US81369Y5069 5.00%
The portfolio is a concentrated all‑equity mix built from four US‑listed ETFs. Roughly half sits in a broad US large‑cap fund, a quarter in a growth‑heavy index, a fifth in a momentum strategy, and a small slice in a single sector fund. That structure leans heavily on big US companies while adding a modest “factor” and sector tilt on top. This is relevant because it mixes broad market exposure with a couple of satellite positions that push returns and risk in specific directions. The main takeaway is that this behaves much more like a focused US stock portfolio than a broadly diversified global mix, despite holding multiple ETFs.
Growth
Historically, $1,000 grew to about $2,234 over the period, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.88%. CAGR is like your average speed over a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That beat both the US market (13.77%) and a global market basket (11.87%), so you’ve been rewarded for the concentration. Max drawdown was about -22%, meaning at worst the portfolio was roughly a fifth below its high. That’s slightly shallower than the benchmarks’ worst drops, which is encouraging. Still, past performance only shows how this mix handled one specific period; future markets can look very different.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s historical behavior to run 1,000 “what if” futures, each with different return paths. Think of it as rolling the dice on markets 1,000 times, using past volatility and returns as a guide. The median outcome turns $1,000 into around $2,812 over 15 years, with a typical middle range of about $1,926–$4,127. There’s about a 77% chance of ending with a gain. But these are simulations, not promises: if future volatility or returns differ from the past, real results can land outside these ranges. The real value here is understanding the possible ups‑and‑downs, not a precise number.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset‑class exposure is very straightforward: 100% stocks, no bonds or cash‑like assets. That matches an equity‑centric approach, which tends to offer higher long‑term growth potential but bigger swings along the way. For a “balanced” risk label, this is actually more growth‑tilted than many mixed‑asset portfolios that blend in bonds. Without a stabilizing asset class, any market downturn flows directly into account value. The upside is simplicity and strong alignment with long‑run stock growth; the trade‑off is you’ll feel full equity volatility, so this structure best fits someone comfortable riding through sizeable drawdowns without needing short‑term stability.
Sectors
- Technology 38%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 8%
- Financials 7%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is led by technology at 38%, with telecom, consumer, industrials, health care, energy, and financials making up most of the rest. This is more tech‑heavy than a broad market baseline, which is already quite tech tilted. That can be powerful when innovation and growth are in favor, but tech often reacts strongly to interest‑rate moves or shifts in risk appetite. The added 5% single‑sector energy fund also nudges exposure toward cyclical behavior linked to commodity prices. Overall, the sector mix is somewhat diversified but clearly growth and tech focused, so expect sharper reactions to tech‑specific news cycles than a more even sector spread.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost pure North America at 99%, with only a token allocation elsewhere. That aligns well with many US‑based investors’ home bias and has been rewarded in the last decade, as US markets outpaced much of the world. It also simplifies currency risk, since most assets match the dollar. The trade‑off is that economic and policy shocks specific to the US will affect nearly everything here at once. Relative to a global market baseline, exposure outside the US is minimal. So while recent performance looks great, diversification across different economies is limited.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 39%
- Mid-cap 16%
Market cap exposure is dominated by mega‑ and large‑cap stocks, with about 83% in those categories and a smaller 16% in mid‑caps. That’s very much in line with major broad US indices, which are also top‑heavy. Larger companies tend to have more stable earnings and better access to capital, which can dampen some volatility compared with a big small‑cap tilt. On the other hand, smaller companies sometimes lead in early recoveries or niche growth areas, and that upside is underrepresented here. The positive is that this large‑cap orientation is standard, familiar, and generally resilient, especially for investors preferring established names.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.70%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.22%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.87%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.05%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.87%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 35.20%
Looking through the ETFs, a lot of risk circles back to the same big names: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Exxon. Several of these appear in multiple ETFs, which means hidden overlap even though you only see four tickers. This overlap matters because if one of these giants has a bad spell, it can hit the portfolio from several directions at once. The data only covers top‑10 ETF holdings, so true overlap is likely higher. The key takeaway is that this is effectively a bet on a handful of mega‑cap leaders rather than four fully independent baskets.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is close to market‑like across the board: value, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit in the neutral band. Size shows a mild tilt away from smaller companies, consistent with the strong large‑cap focus. Factors are like investment “ingredients” — characteristics such as cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility) that research links to returns. Here, there are no extreme bets on any single style; the explicit momentum ETF is largely balanced out by the rest of the holdings. That means the portfolio should behave broadly like the overall large‑cap market, without the strong boom‑and‑bust cycles seen in more aggressive factor‑tilt strategies.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 46.5% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 30.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 20.0% -
Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
Weight: 5.00% 3.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weightings. The broad S&P 500 ETF is half the weight and delivers roughly half the risk, which is very proportional. The NASDAQ 100 fund is 25% of assets but contributes about 30% of risk, so it punches slightly above its weight, reflecting its growth tilt. The momentum ETF’s risk is almost exactly in line with its allocation, and the energy fund contributes less risk than its size might suggest. With the top three positions driving over 96% of total risk, the real behavior is defined by those big building blocks.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current mix sits below the best achievable risk‑return trade‑off using the same four ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above cash, is 0.69 now. A different combination of these ETFs could raise the Sharpe noticeably, either by boosting expected return at similar risk or trimming risk at similar return. The maximum‑Sharpe mix would take on slightly more volatility but much higher expected return, while the minimum‑variance mix offers similar return with lower risk. The big idea: even without adding new investments, simply reweighting what’s already here could make the portfolio work more efficiently.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.90%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
- Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.03%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.03%, with the broad S&P 500 ETF the main income contributor and the energy fund adding a small bump. That’s lower than more income‑focused strategies but pretty typical for a growth‑tilted large‑cap US portfolio. Dividends can provide a modest steady return stream and help soften the feel of flat markets, but here they are clearly a secondary feature. Most of the expected return is coming from price changes, not payouts. For someone prioritizing capital growth over cash flow today, this structure is consistent; for income‑centric goals, it would feel relatively light.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are impressively low: the weighted total expense ratio (TER) is around 0.08%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, quietly deducted inside the ETF. Keeping fees down matters because it’s one of the few levers investors can control, and every 0.1% saved compounds over years. Relative to typical active funds or even some index funds, this fee level is very competitive. That means more of the portfolio’s gross return stays in your pocket, which is a real structural strength. From a cost perspective, the setup is doing exactly what you’d hope for a long‑term, ETF‑based approach.
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