A growth focused portfolio with heavy semiconductor tilt and strong historic returns but high risk
Report created on Jan 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
FS Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio
FSELX - US3163908631 40.00% -
FI FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND
FIVLX - US3159104898 25.00% -
FG FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND
FGRTX - US31617F4037 20.00% -
FX Fidelity 500 Index Fund
FXAIX - US3159117502 15.00%
This portfolio is strongly growth tilted, with four stock funds and about 96% in equities and 4% in cash. The biggest driver is the semiconductor fund at 40%, then an international value fund at 25%, a mega cap fund at 20%, and a broad US index at 15%. Compared with a typical growth benchmark, this setup is more concentrated in a single industry and less balanced across styles. That concentration can supercharge returns but also amplifies swings. To smooth the ride a bit, shifting a portion from the most concentrated holding into broader, more diversified equity funds or modestly increasing defensive assets could help reduce overall bumpiness while keeping a growth focus.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 27% is extremely strong. CAGR is like average speed on a long road trip: it smooths out all the ups and downs into one annual growth number. A $10,000 starting amount growing at 27.25% for 10 years would hypothetically reach roughly $111,000, far above many broad-market benchmarks. The flip side is the max drawdown of -37.6%, meaning at one point the portfolio lost over a third from a previous peak. That’s a serious hit emotionally and financially. If such deep drops feel uncomfortable, dialing back some of the riskiest exposures or adding stabilizing assets could make the ride more manageable.
Projection
The Monte Carlo analysis uses many random simulations based on historical patterns to estimate future ranges of outcomes. Think of it as re‑shuffling past returns 1,000 different ways to see what could happen. The median (50th percentile) outcome of around 1,943% suggests that, in a typical scenario, long‑term growth could be very strong, while even the lower 5th percentile of 353% still shows positive results. However, all of this relies on past data continuing to behave in similar ways, which is never guaranteed. Rather than relying on the most optimistic paths, it’s wiser to plan using the middle or lower‑end outcomes and keep expectations realistic when setting long‑term goals.
Asset classes
- Stocks 96%
- Cash 4%
With 96% in stocks, 4% in cash, and effectively no bonds, this is an aggressive growth mix. Equities historically drive higher long‑term returns than bonds, but they also experience larger and more frequent swings. Cash offers a tiny buffer during downturns and provides dry powder for new opportunities, but it doesn’t grow much. Compared with many growth benchmarks, this allocation is more aggressively tilted toward stocks, with little focus on downside protection. If preserving capital during big market drops is a priority, gradually building a small allocation to more defensive assets or slightly increasing cash could help cushion volatility while keeping the growth engine running.
Sectors
- Technology 52%
- Financials 15%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 5%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Energy 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, technology stands out massively at 52%, driven largely by the semiconductor fund. Financials, industrials, healthcare, and a mix of cyclical and defensive areas fill in the rest, which is good, but they’re much smaller slices. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this tech and chip concentration is far higher. That means strong gains when that industry leads, but painful hits when it falls out of favor or faces regulatory, supply-chain, or rate‑sensitive headwinds. The rest of the sector mix is reasonably aligned with common benchmarks, which supports diversification. Easing the semiconductor weight and boosting more stable or underrepresented sectors can create a more balanced risk profile without abandoning growth.
Regions
- North America 70%
- Europe Developed 22%
- Japan 5%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, about 70% is in North America and 30% mostly in developed markets like Europe and Japan, with a small slice in emerging and developed Asia. This setup is broadly similar to many global growth portfolios that are US‑centric but still international. The international value fund brings useful diversification, as different regions can lead or lag at different times depending on currencies, politics, and economic cycles. The low exposure to emerging markets reduces some risk but also limits potential long‑term growth and diversification benefits from faster‑growing economies. Gradually nudging up non‑US exposure, especially in areas with different economic drivers, can help reduce reliance on one region’s fortunes.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 2%
The market cap mix leans heavily toward mega (45%) and large caps (32%), with a meaningful slice in mid caps (18%) and only a small allocation to small caps. Market capitalization measures company size; mega and large caps tend to be more stable, while smaller firms can be more volatile but sometimes faster growing. This structure lines up well with many broad benchmarks and supports a solid core of established businesses. The mid‑cap presence adds some growth flavor without going too far out on the risk spectrum. If seeking even higher growth and can handle extra volatility, increasing small‑cap exposure slightly could add another return driver, while still keeping large caps as the anchor.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
From a risk–return standpoint, this portfolio likely sits above average risk for its return level because of the heavy semiconductor and pure‑equity tilt. The Efficient Frontier is a concept that shows the best possible trade‑off between risk and return using only the existing building blocks by adjusting their weights, not by adding new assets. Efficiency here means getting the most expected return for a given level of volatility, not necessarily maximizing diversification or income. Shifting some weight from the most volatile holding toward the broader index and international funds could move the portfolio closer to that frontier. That keeps the growth profile but aims for a smoother and more “efficient” ride over time.
Dividends
- FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND 6.70%
- FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND 2.20%
- Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio 14.30%
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 7.78%
The overall dividend yield of about 7.8% is unusually high for a growth‑oriented, equity‑heavy portfolio. Dividend yield measures how much income is paid out relative to the portfolio value each year. The semiconductor fund’s quoted yield over 14% looks especially eye‑catching and may reflect special distributions or recent price movements; such extreme numbers are often not sustainable year in, year out. Still, the blend of income from the mega cap and international value funds provides a healthy cash flow stream. For someone who values both income and growth, reinvesting a portion of these dividends can compound returns, while optionally using some of the income to fund spending needs.
Ongoing product costs
- FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND FIDELITY MEGA CAP STOCK FUND 0.58%
- FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND 0.80%
- Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio 0.62%
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.57%
The total expense ratio (TER) around 0.57% is reasonable for an actively tilted, growth‑focused setup. TER is the annual fee charged by funds as a percentage of assets; over time, even small differences compound. The index fund at 0.02% is impressively low and sets a strong benchmark for cost efficiency. The active funds, at 0.58%–0.80%, are higher but still within a typical range. This cost structure is largely aligned with what many investors pay for active plus index blends. If you ever add new funds, leaning toward lower‑cost options with similar exposure can gradually trim the overall TER, leaving more of the portfolio’s returns working for long‑term growth.
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