Diversified US tilted portfolio with value factor focus and efficient but improvable risk return profile

Report created on Apr 18, 2026

Risk profile

  • Secure
    Speculative

The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.

Diversification profile

  • Focused
    Diversified

The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.

Positions

The portfolio is built around broad stock-market ETFs with a meaningful ballast in high‑quality municipal bonds. Roughly half the money sits in a total US stock market fund, with smaller slices in a US large index, developed international stocks, and two dedicated value-tilted funds. About one‑fifth is parked in muni bonds. This structure mixes simple core building blocks with a couple of targeted tilts, which is a solid approach for many long‑term investors. The big takeaway is that decisions about risk and return are being made mainly through stock/bond mix and factor tilts, not through picking individual names, which usually keeps complexity and maintenance needs fairly low.

Growth Info

From late 2021 to mid‑2026, $1,000 grew to about $1,504, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.41%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip: it smooths the ride into one yearly number. The portfolio lagged both the US and global market benchmarks, mainly because those were heavily driven by mega‑cap growth stocks. On the flip side, the portfolio’s worst drop, about –21.7%, was smaller than both benchmarks, and it fully recovered within roughly two years. This pattern is consistent with a slightly more defensive, income‑aware approach that trades a bit of upside for reduced downside pain.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo simulation runs 1,000 alternate futures by shuffling and resampling historical returns to estimate a range of possible 15‑year outcomes. It’s like simulating many different “weather patterns” for markets, not predicting a single forecast. The median path grows $1,000 to about $2,673, with a typical middle range between roughly $1,880 and $3,833. There’s still a meaningful chance of more extreme results on both sides. An overall expected return around 7.5% a year is consistent with a balanced, equity‑heavy allocation. It’s important to remember these simulations lean on past behavior; structural changes, new regimes, or big macro shocks could make future returns quite different.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    80%
  • Bonds
    20%

Asset‑class allocation sits at about 80% stocks and 20% bonds, which is firmly in the “balanced but growth‑oriented” camp. Stocks drive most long‑term growth but can be bumpy; bonds, especially muni bonds here, act as a stabilizer and income source. Compared with a classic 60/40 mix, this is tilted more toward growth, which suits longer horizons and moderate risk tolerance. The bond slice is not huge, so during sharp equity sell‑offs you’ll still feel meaningful drawdowns, but with some cushioning. This allocation is well‑aligned with many balanced profiles and provides a clear lever: adjusting the stock/bond split over time can gradually dial risk up or down as circumstances change.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    20%
  • Financials
    12%
  • Industrials
    10%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    9%
  • Health Care
    7%
  • Telecommunications
    7%
  • Energy
    5%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Basic Materials
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Sector exposure is reasonably diversified, with technology leading at about 20%, then financials, industrials, consumer areas, and health care forming a broad middle. Compared with many broad equity benchmarks, tech isn’t extreme here, especially given today’s tech‑heavy indices. That should help keep volatility somewhat more manageable when interest rates move or growth stocks wobble. Smaller allocations to traditionally defensive areas like utilities and consumer staples mean some downside protection, but not an overly conservative tilt. Overall, the sector mix is balanced and broadly benchmark‑like, which is a strong indicator of healthy diversification across different parts of the economy and business cycles.

Regions Info

  • North America
    69%
  • Europe Developed
    6%
  • Japan
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Australasia
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Geographically, about 69% of equity exposure is in North America, with modest slices in developed Europe, Japan, and other developed regions. That’s a clear home‑bias toward the US, but still more international diversification than many US‑only portfolios. Relative to a global market‑cap benchmark, foreign developed markets are underweight, which means economic and currency risk is still heavily tied to the US. The upside is benefiting more from US innovation and policy; the downside is more vulnerability if the US underperforms other regions. For many investors this level of international exposure is a reasonable compromise between familiarity and diversification, but it’s useful to realize the tilt is deliberate.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    29%
  • Large-cap
    23%
  • Mid-cap
    15%
  • Small-cap
    8%
  • Micro-cap
    5%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

The market‑cap breakdown skews to mega‑ and large‑cap companies, which together account for just over half of the portfolio, but there is meaningful participation in mid, small, and even micro caps. Large and mega caps tend to be more established and stable, often dampening volatility. The dedicated small‑cap value exposure adds a punch of higher‑risk, potentially higher‑reward names that respond strongly to economic cycles. This blend supports both resilience and growth. For investors, it means returns won’t be dominated solely by the biggest household names, yet the portfolio isn’t overly dependent on tiny, more fragile companies either. That’s a healthy, multi‑cap spread.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    3.60%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Apple Inc
    3.46%
    Part of fund(s):
    • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Microsoft Corporation
    2.43%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Amazon.com Inc
    1.96%
    Part of fund(s):
    • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    1.48%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Broadcom Inc
    1.30%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
    1.28%
    Part of fund(s):
    • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    1.18%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Tesla Inc
    0.92%
    Part of fund(s):
    • LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc
    0.76%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Top 10 total 18.38%

Looking through the ETFs, the biggest underlying exposures cluster in the usual US mega‑cap names: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and a few others. These companies show up across multiple funds, especially the total market and S&P 500 ETFs, which creates hidden concentration even though you technically own many holdings. Because only top‑10 ETF positions are captured, true overlap is likely higher. This concentration means portfolio performance will still be heavily influenced by a handful of big tech and growth‑oriented leaders. It’s not necessarily bad, but it does mean that sentiment swings around these firms can move the needle more than the number of total holdings might suggest.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
High
Data availability: 80%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 80%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 80%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 80%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposure shows a clear tilt toward value, with a high value score around 61%, while size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit roughly near neutral. Factors are like the underlying “personality traits” of investments that research has linked to long‑run returns. A value tilt means more emphasis on companies trading at lower prices relative to fundamentals, historically rewarding but often out of favor when high‑growth stocks lead. Neutral readings on other factors suggest behavior close to the broad market on dimensions like company size, trend following, and defensiveness. This combination can lag in growth‑led rallies but may shine when cheaper, more cyclical stocks come back into favor.

Risk contribution Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 44.56%
    56.0%
  • Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 11.88%
    12.3%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Weight: 9.90%
    11.9%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 7.92%
    11.1%
  • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 5.94%
    7.0%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 98.3%

Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The total US stock market ETF is about 45% of the portfolio but contributes roughly 56% of total risk, acting as the main engine of volatility. The S&P 500 and developed international funds, plus the US small‑cap value ETF, together push the top three risk contributors above 80% of total risk. This signals that fine‑tuning these few positions has an outsized impact on overall behavior. Keeping an eye on whether their risk share still matches your comfort zone is more important than small tweaks in minor holdings.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    High correlation

The correlation data flags that the S&P 500 ETF and the total US stock market ETF move almost identically. Correlation measures how assets move together; a reading near one means they usually go up and down in tandem. Holding both funds can still make sense for implementation reasons, but they don’t add much extra diversification relative to each other. Instead, diversification benefits mainly come from the bond allocation, the developed international ETF, and the dedicated value tilts. In practice, this means that in major US equity swings, these two core funds will largely behave like one combined position, amplifying whatever is happening in the broad US market.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits below the efficient frontier by about 1.47 percentage points of return at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.43. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk taken, similar to how many miles you get per gallon of gas. The optimal mix of the same holdings could reach a Sharpe around 0.75, meaning a much better tradeoff using only reweighting. This suggests the ingredients are strong, but the recipe could be tuned. Adjusting weights among existing funds, especially around the equity/bond balance and the overlapping US core funds, might unlock a smoother or more rewarding profile without adding new products.

Dividends Info

  • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 1.10%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
  • iShares National Muni Bond ETF 3.20%
  • Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.72%

The overall dividend yield sits around 1.72%, coming from a mix of equity income and the higher‑yielding municipal bond ETF. Dividend yield is the yearly cash payout as a percentage of your investment, like the interest on a savings account but less predictable. The muni fund’s roughly 3.2% yield is a key income driver and can be especially attractive on an after‑tax basis for many US investors. The equity funds are more modest yielders, reflecting a focus on total return rather than pure income. For someone in the accumulation phase, this level of yield is reasonable; for heavy income needs, a higher bond or income‑oriented allocation would usually be required.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 0.15%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • iShares National Muni Bond ETF 0.05%
  • Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%

Costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio around 0.06% across the portfolio. The main index ETFs charge just 0.03% to 0.05%, and even the more specialized value funds are relatively inexpensive. Expense ratios are the annual fee taken by the fund provider, and shaving even a few tenths of a percent can add up significantly over decades through compounding. Here, the cost structure is a real strength: it means more of the underlying market return stays in your pocket. This low‑fee foundation provides breathing room for long‑term compounding and frees attention to focus on asset allocation and risk rather than fee drag.

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