A supposedly balanced portfolio that is actually an equity rocket ship in business casual clothing
Report created on Jan 31, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
5/5
Positions
-
XE iShares Core Equity Portfolio
XEQT - CA46436D1087 90.00% -
XC iShares Canadian Growth Index ETF
XCG - CA46430X1006 5.00% -
XC iShares S&P/TSX Small Cap
XCS - CA46428G2009 3.00% -
CN Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
CNQ - CA1363851017 2.00%
This thing calls itself “balanced” but it’s 98%+ in equities and a pity 1% in cash. That’s not balanced; that’s a stock portfolio wearing a sensible sweater. The giant 90% chunk in one core equity ETF means the whole outcome lives or dies with that single product. The sprinkling of extra ETFs and one lonely stock at 2% is portfolio garnish, not real diversification. When one holding dominates like this, you’re basically just holding a slightly decorated index fund. If the goal is actual balance, fixed income and true defensive pieces need to exist in more than “rounding error” amounts.
Growth
A 14.69% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate, basically your average yearly speed) is hot. If someone dropped $10,000 in at the start, they’d be looking near $40,000 after 10 years with that rate. That beats most broad equity benchmarks and makes “balanced” portfolios look sleepy. But a max drawdown of -31.11% says the ride down was just as real as the ride up. That’s the moment people panic-sell and wreck the story. Past data is like re-reading your diary: interesting, but the future doesn’t have to care. Anyone running this setup needs to be mentally ready for another 30% punch.
Projection
Monte Carlo simulations are basically thousands of “what if” timelines where markets go haywire in different ways. Here, the median outcome at 800.2% and average annualized return over 20% screams “this is generous and probably optimistic.” The 5th percentile at 90.8% says worst-case in the model is roughly flat-ish, which feels suspiciously kind for an almost-all-equity portfolio. Simulations use past-like behavior, which is adorable but not prophecy. Reality can be messier, with longer bad stretches or slower booms. Treat these outputs like a weather app: useful, but you still pack an umbrella if the sky looks wrong.
Asset classes
- US Equity 38%
- Stocks 32%
- Stocks 2%
- Cash 1%
The asset class mix is basically: equities everywhere, a weird “stock” bucket, and 1% cash loitering in the corner. No meaningful bonds, no real ballast, just vibes. For something labelled balanced, this is heavily tilted toward growth and volatility, more like an aggressive growth profile in denial. When everything is tilted to one risk engine (equities), you win big in bull markets and get slapped around in bear markets. True multi-asset balance splits roles: some assets grow, some protect, some smooth the ride. Right now, this setup is more “full throttle” than “all-weather.”
Sectors
- Financials 19%
- Technology 19%
- Industrials 12%
- Basic Materials 11%
- Energy 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector spread is actually not bad, which is almost disappointing because it limits roasting material. Tech and Financials both at 19% is a “two big pillars” structure, with Industrials and Basic Materials next in line. That’s basically cyclicals central: things that love good economic times and sulk in recessions. Healthcare and Staples show up, but not in hero quantities. In a downturn, this mix won’t be the kid with the umbrella; it’ll be the one pretending it’s just “a bit of rain.” Dialing back reliance on economic-sensitive areas and boosting more defensive stuff could make crashes feel less like a freefall.
Regions
- North America 73%
- Europe Developed 14%
- Japan 5%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this screams “Canada and friends” with 73% in North America. Europe Developed at 14% and small slices of Japan and Asia add some global flavor, but the bias is very “US and Canada know best.” Latin America and Emerging Europe at 0% is a clear “nah, too messy” stance. That’s fine when North America leads, less fun if leadership rotates elsewhere. A broader global mix helps avoid betting the future on one region’s politics, currency, or central bank mood swings. Right now, if North America sneezes, this portfolio catches the full flu.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 41%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 7%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap spread is actually quite sensible: 41% mega, 32% big, 18% mid, with 7% small and 1% micro for spice. This avoids the classic “only mega-caps” trap while also dodging the “all small caps, all drama” approach. Still, remember that mid and small caps can be emotional roller coasters: great when liquidity is flowing, ruthless when fear hits. The mix here is growth-tilted but not ridiculous, which is mildly shocking given how aggressive the overall equity weight is. If volatility feels too high, trimming the small and micro sliver a bit could calm things down without killing growth potential.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
From a risk–return efficiency angle, this thing is more “fast car with no airbags” than “carefully tuned machine.” The return profile is strong, but the drawdowns and equity overload mean you’re paying for those gains with real heartburn risk. The Efficient Frontier (fancy term for the best mix of risk and return) would probably show you could get similar returns with slightly less drama by mixing in more stabilizers and maybe trimming concentration in that one core ETF. Right now, the trade-off is skewed toward “hope you like volatility” instead of “smart balance of courage and caution.”
Dividends
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd 4.60%
- iShares Canadian Growth Index ETF 0.10%
- iShares S&P/TSX Small Cap 0.40%
- iShares Core Equity Portfolio 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.29%
With a total yield of 0.29%, this portfolio isn’t here for income; it’s here for growth and drama. The single stock kicking out 4.6% is doing all the heavy lifting while the ETFs basically whisper, “We reinvest, sorry.” That’s fine if the goal is long-term compounding, not paying the bills. But calling this any kind of income strategy would be like calling instant noodles “fine dining.” If future cash flow is a goal, yield needs serious reinforcement, or a plan to eventually shift toward higher-payout holdings later in life. For now, this is a “reinvest everything and hope” setup.
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